hckyplayer8 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Pretty classic look to the Euro. This actually may end up being interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 NAM looks juicy for northern PA...maybe a few bonus flakes down here at the end, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Per 12z GFS ensembles, it looks like both storms miss us handily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Per 12z GFS ensembles, it looks like both storms miss us handily. Euro has second storm hitting. We wil have to watch to see if this storm becomes a bigger threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Per 12z GFS ensembles, it looks like both storms miss us handily. Euro is west compared to GFS with decent precip... favorable 850 temps too... will be an interesting week for sure to follow this to see where the track ends up and if we end up cold enough this early in the season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Euro is west compared to GFS with decent precip... favorable 850 temps too... will be an interesting week for sure to follow this to see where the track ends up and if we end up cold enough this early in the season... Yeah, doubtful the lower elevations of C PA see anything noteworthy but still nice to be tracking storms already. To the mets who have been here a while and know the patterns-what type of storm do you look for to really produce for this area? I'd assume a storm just off the coast and intensifying would be ideal, but I don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 CMC and Euro give snow to many areas. Euro has 3"+ for a good part of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Euro would be quite a thrashing for most of central PA, maybe even the Susq Valley. Higher elevations/towns like State College, Altoona, Johnstown, etc would get crushed. Hopefully it keeps up, because it CAN happen there this time of year. It's much harder in places down the Susquehanna Valley and in low elevations, but still possible with a bombing low east of you. Tomorrow's the 6th anniversary of the 10/25/05 event that hit areas along the Laurels and even down to State College/Altoona pretty hard. I remember there being at least 3-5" of slop around campus and a lot of still leafed-limbs down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I've been out of the loop working on job applications. Is there any model, OP or Ensemble, that supports the EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I've been out of the loop working on job applications. Is there any model, OP or Ensemble, that supports the EURO? Canadian gives some snow to C PA from the second storm with cold air already in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I've been out of the loop working on job applications. Is there any model, OP or Ensemble, that supports the EURO? CMC and a few of the GFS ENS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Euro would be quite a thrashing for most of central PA, maybe even the Susq Valley. Higher elevations/towns like State College, Altoona, Johnstown, etc would get crushed. Hopefully it keeps up, because it CAN happen there this time of year. It's much harder in places down the Susquehanna Valley and in low elevations, but still possible with a bombing low east of you. Tomorrow's the 6th anniversary of the 10/25/05 event that hit areas along the Laurels and even down to State College/Altoona pretty hard. I remember there being at least 3-5" of slop around campus and a lot of still leafed-limbs down. Haha, quite a thrashing might be an understatement. I only had to look at the text printouts to see its big. JST, AOO, and UNV have about 1.1-1.3" of QPF and with 850s -4 or less and 2m near freezing.. it would easily be a significant wet snowstorm. Still waiting on the full model run to come in thru Accupro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Haha, quite a thrashing might be an understatement. I only had to look at the text printouts to see its big. JST, AOO, and UNV have about 1.1-1.3" of QPF and with 850s -4 or less and 2m near freezing.. it would easily be a significant wet snowstorm. Still waiting on the full model run to come in thru Accupro. It's an eye-opening run, that's for sure. The storm seems plausible given the impressive temp gradient that is left behind from the Thursday/Friday AM system. That being said, the exact track of that system and where that boundary sets up in its wake will determine whether we see something or nothing from the weekend storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Leaving Texas in a few minutes, pretty sure the current 78 degree reading is the last I'll be seeing that high in a few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 Leaving Texas in a few minutes, pretty sure the current 78 degree reading is the last I'll be seeing that high in a few months. I'm in Austin. It was 90 here yesterday. 86 now. I arrive home 11:30 Wed night (or early Thursday am depending on the airlines, lol).....talk about a shock to the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 It's an eye-opening run, that's for sure. The storm seems plausible given the impressive temp gradient that is left behind from the Thursday/Friday AM system. That being said, the exact track of that system and where that boundary sets up in its wake will determine whether we see something or nothing from the weekend storm. Yea all in all looks like a fairly classic 1-2 scenario with one wave bringing the boundary down and a second, potentially stronger system running up the coast. Could be quite telling that this snowstorm scenario has cropped back up after being absent from the models for a couple days. Still lots of time and the verdicts gonna be out on this for at least a few more days. As for model positioning for the 12z suite today, its a pretty favorable one considering their tendancies several days out. You have the 12z GFS keeping things east, the Canadian really winding this storm up and bringing it inland, and the Euro with more of a coastal runner. I know i'll be keeping an eye on how models handle things as this potential event/nonevent gets here. I now have had a look at the full Euro. It is very cold, with pretty much all of our Central PA thread posters seeing at least a notable period of potential flakes and alot that would arguably see the whole thing go down as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I like the 12Z Nam for the first wave thursday! gives all northern PA a decent amount of snow. The second wave looks to be a touch south and east for my location but pounds you guys to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Euro would be quite a thrashing for most of central PA, maybe even the Susq Valley. Higher elevations/towns like State College, Altoona, Johnstown, etc would get crushed. Hopefully it keeps up, because it CAN happen there this time of year. It's much harder in places down the Susquehanna Valley and in low elevations, but still possible with a bombing low east of you. Tomorrow's the 6th anniversary of the 10/25/05 event that hit areas along the Laurels and even down to State College/Altoona pretty hard. I remember there being at least 3-5" of slop around campus and a lot of still leafed-limbs down. Haha, quite a thrashing might be an understatement. I only had to look at the text printouts to see its big. JST, AOO, and UNV have about 1.1-1.3" of QPF and with 850s -4 or less and 2m near freezing.. it would easily be a significant wet snowstorm. Still waiting on the full model run to come in thru Accupro. I like the 12Z Nam for the first wave thursday! gives all northern PA a decent amount of snow. The second wave looks to be a touch south and east for my location but pounds you guys to the south. Yup. Lots of different scenarios showing up. The NAM has the first 'storm' giving us some snow. The Euro has an amazing second storm. The NOGAPS has some snow with both of them. The 12z GFS has little or no snow with either. I'll take one order of the Euro please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 18Z GFS is a no but, if there is any changes it will come 0Z. I just seen the NOGAPS and way that is impressive for a so called progressive model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I'm in the Moderate and the Slight 8" + , I will be happy with a decent snowstorm at this point. I hope the Euro comes through for everyone! What a start to winter this would be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Well this really puts in perspective how cold/snowy/insane the European was this afternoon. Hank had this snowfall total map from Accupro's Euro posted on his blog (so technically he's sharing it, not me ). That assumes a 10:1 ratio, which would likely be very difficult to attain at the end of October. That ratio cut in half is more probable for most... but still, this happening would just be insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Hey MAG, that is for the second wave correct? Do you think the first wave looks legit with 4" for northern PA, southern NY and some parts of NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Hey MAG, that is for the second wave correct? Do you think the first wave looks legit with 4" for northern PA, southern NY and some parts of NE. I would temper expectations of the first wave - these rain-to-snow situations rarely turn out well. Of course, I still have to eat crow on the storm this past March that went rain to snow and dumped a quick 5-10" from Altoona to State College. This looks like one of those situations where you get some slushy snow on the back end, but I would bet on less than 4". One thing that does work in your favor is the time of day. Since most of the precip is falling at night, if you can string together some decent precip rates, you could get a good thump. It's a tough call. NAM looks a bit too cool for my liking at 850. GFS looks more realistic given the track of the low and the time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Hey everyone! So when did this second storm possibility come about, I thought this was one storm during the Thursday-Friday timeframe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Hey MAG, that is for the second wave correct? Do you think the first wave looks legit with 4" for northern PA, southern NY and some parts of NE. The Euro does light up some accums for that first wave in your neck of the woods. I tried looking for that same snowmap Hank used but I don't have that for whatever reason. At any rate, with all the attention on this potential following coastal storm... this first wave could end up being a bit of a sleeper threat. The 15z SREF's really light up northern PA (and even central PA) with high probs of 1+ with some 4+ probs. Considering that's at 72hr+, thats doing pretty good. In terms of seeing flakes anywhere, this first wave has a better chance to do it...simply because this is more of a cut and dry deal in my opinion. You have cold air pressing south as the system moves out and if there's enough of a press in a timely fashion, it's going to change some folks over and northern Penn is a good candidate for that to happen without much difficulty. The trailing wave that makes for the possible big coastal threat needs a bit more to happen. Enough amplification is my main concern with the second event. The tropics are going to be a wildcard with Hurricane Rina lurking near the Yucatan for the next few days and if some of that heat and moisture gets added to the equation. As a sidenote, I went back a little bit ago and had a look at the Euro EPS control run that Accuweather Pro now offers. If you thought the Euro operational was epic, you shoulda seen that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The Euro does light up some accums for that first wave in your neck of the woods. I tried looking for that same snowmap Hank used but I don't have that for whatever reason. At any rate, with all the attention on this potential following coastal storm... this first wave could end up being a bit of a sleeper threat. The 15z SREF's really light up northern PA (and even central PA) with high probs of 1+ with some 4+ probs. Considering that's at 72hr+, thats doing pretty good. In terms of seeing flakes anywhere, this first wave has a better chance to do it...simply because this is more of a cut and dry deal in my opinion. You have cold air pressing south as the system moves out and if there's enough of a press in a timely fashion, it's going to change some folks over and northern Penn is a good candidate for that to happen without much difficulty. The trailing wave that makes for the possible big coastal threat needs a bit more to happen. Enough amplification is my main concern with the second event. The tropics are going to be a wildcard with Hurricane Rina lurking near the Yucatan for the next few days and if some of that heat and moisture gets added to the equation. As a sidenote, I went back a little bit ago and had a look at the Euro EPS control run that Accuweather Pro now offers. If you thought the Euro operational was epic, you shoulda seen that one. I'll say. When you have a mean pressure around 980mb off of Cape Cod from five days out, that's saying something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Damnit, I missed the northern lights, did anyone see them here in PA?? I think the mountains obscured my view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The Euro does light up some accums for that first wave in your neck of the woods. I tried looking for that same snowmap Hank used but I don't have that for whatever reason. At any rate, with all the attention on this potential following coastal storm... this first wave could end up being a bit of a sleeper threat. The 15z SREF's really light up northern PA (and even central PA) with high probs of 1+ with some 4+ probs. Considering that's at 72hr+, thats doing pretty good. In terms of seeing flakes anywhere, this first wave has a better chance to do it...simply because this is more of a cut and dry deal in my opinion. You have cold air pressing south as the system moves out and if there's enough of a press in a timely fashion, it's going to change some folks over and northern Penn is a good candidate for that to happen without much difficulty. The trailing wave that makes for the possible big coastal threat needs a bit more to happen. Enough amplification is my main concern with the second event. The tropics are going to be a wildcard with Hurricane Rina lurking near the Yucatan for the next few days and if some of that heat and moisture gets added to the equation. As a sidenote, I went back a little bit ago and had a look at the Euro EPS control run that Accuweather Pro now offers. If you thought the Euro operational was epic, you shoulda seen that one. The what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Damnit, I missed the northern lights, did anyone see them here in PA?? I think the mountains obscured my view. Got this off of another thread, these pics were taken in southernmost Illinois. Best northern lights I have ever witnessed. Last time I saw anything close to this was back in the 1970s when I was a kid. On the exact same farm land I am on tonight! Just amazing Never witnessed curtains here until now! 30-40 second exposures The what? What I was mentioning was a control run based off of the European ensembles. It's not an actual mean of the ensembles, but its somehow based off the ensemble members in some fashion. Brian (PSU8315) has the mean posted just a couple posts above you, and that even has a mean low of 980 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The 00Z NAM still shows a nice possible 3-6" of snow for northern PA. What time does the 00Z Euro run come out, 2 or 3AM? Hopefully it still has a monster LP that can bring some snow to the rest of PA. The 00Z GFS looks blah, it shuns the 2nd s/w LP off the coast, but the 1st wave looks to have trended somewhat towards the NAM, it isn't quite as warm and does show some rain to snow accumulations albeit light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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