EasternUSWX Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Euro has a little snow. Again, it'll all come down to details which the models won't have a handle on for a couple days yet, probably. Euro has a bomb at 240, and some GFS ens are nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Euro has a bomb at 240, and some GFS ens are nuts. Yup. I counted about 4 of the 16 ensemble members that give us a very significant snowstorm. Most of them give us at least a little snow. So, it's definitely worth talking about. The euro at hour 240 thing, while pretty-looking, is not really something I'm putting much stock in now. That's way too specific a detail for even day 5, let alone day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 18Z GFS is colder and drier by a bit with the low further E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Very few of the 18z GFS ensembles are any good, though, which kinda sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Model chasing time already? It's gonna be a loooooong winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Model chasing time already? It's gonna be a loooooong winter! Yeah. We need to have the time change so the nights are somewhat bearable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 00z GFS has an absolute monster for central and western PA at about 190 HR's out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 00z GFS has an absolute monster for central and western PA at about 190 HR's out. Oh wow yea it does, hour 192 has western PA in the midst of what is likely a heavy wet snowstorm. It's even showing up snow on the ptype maps. Given the deepness of the low and the 850 temps snow would likely not be just confined to the Laurels. The coastal storm is very deep this run most likely with the aid of what appears to be some tropical influence coming out of the southeastern Gulf. Pretty long range yet, but models have been making some noise in this timeframe for a few days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Euro also has monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 :devilsmiley: dirty thoughts dirty thoughts lol. The 00z run makes me feel like I just left the VIP room megateaser! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 With no West based block, gonna be hard to get this thing to slow down and amplify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 *** ALERT ***ALERT *** 1TS MAJOR EAST COAST STORM --M.E.C.L---NOW LIKELY -- LIKELY-- to Occur OCT 29-30... WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS from NC to Boston to Maine... HEAVY SNOW a good bet over eastern KY WVA far southeast OH western MD western & central PA Much of western central and Upstate NY... Track will be ALONG the coast from Eastern SC to Boston DT trigger happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 lol. Well the Euro is pure model porn, that's for sure... but run-to-run consistency is terrible and model-to-model consistency even worse. A small shift upstream of any of the key features will make a huge difference in what happens to us down the line, and it's nigh-on impossible to tell now which runs have the right idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Good thing there is not much of a phase between the two branches on the 12z GFS. Would be a nasty lakes cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 22, 2011 Author Share Posted October 22, 2011 Whatever happens, wouldn't mind this kind of pattern lasting into November. These are pretty good storm tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 22, 2011 Author Share Posted October 22, 2011 Whatever happens, wouldn't mind this kind of pattern lasting into November. These are pretty good storm tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 After looking like the earlier runs of the ECM (troff picks up a tropical/subtropical system and bombs it), the FIM had gone to a major GLC for the 0z run. 12z run coming out right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 I just had a look at last nights European model... wow. You couldn't ask for much more of a classic low placement for central PA to be ground zero for a major snowfall. It also hangs a significant deformation band in central thru 174 and even 180 as the storm lifts up. 925 zero line starts around Harrisburg at 168h, to thru DC and just west of NYC/Philly at 174, and then to the coast at 180. If this Euro solution came to pass it would eventually not matter what elevation you were at in central PA. CTP long term keepin things fairly conservative for time being, mentioning snow possible in higher elevations. CTP Facebook Page actually just posted image of this mornings Euro and a caption. This is going to be really interesting to see if it actually happens, or even if some kind of watered down version of this event happens. Right now I gotta think that what the Euro has is a bit too extreme, and i'd like to see more consistency. That's to be expected at this timeframe. On the other hand, Euro was the one that had the early Oct snowfall pegged pretty well QPF-wise and thermally once the event was a few days out. Speaking of that event, how many of you guys noticed both the NAO and AO were actually in positive territory around the time that happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 12Z goes back to not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 *** ALERT ***ALERT *** 1TS MAJOR EAST COAST STORM --M.E.C.L---NOW LIKELY -- LIKELY-- to Occur OCT 29-30... WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS from NC to Boston to Maine... HEAVY SNOW a good bet over eastern KY WVA far southeast OH western MD western & central PA Much of western central and Upstate NY... Track will be ALONG the coast from Eastern SC to Boston DT trigger happy. Where does DT post now? i dont see anything new on his site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 12Z goes back to not much. Hey not everyone misses out on this solution lol. It show KBFD getting 6" according to the soundings You know its going to change a bunch from here until the storm hits. Just seeing the Euros solution still gives me hope for something big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Is anyone here subscribed to weatherbell? Is it worth the $17 a month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Where does DT post now? i dont see anything new on his site? That was a facebook post. Look up his wxrisk on FB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 FIM is a Miller B. Way warm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Lots of different solutions showing up in the ensembles... there's a very poor handle on just how the details will work out. Unfortunately, though, there is now decent agreement that there won't be an ideal snow solution. Almost all the 18z ensemble members are either too warm, too dry, or both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Model chasing time already? It's gonna be a loooooong winter! + 1 Let the model games begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Lots of different solutions showing up in the ensembles... there's a very poor handle on just how the details will work out. Unfortunately, though, there is now decent agreement that there won't be an ideal snow solution. Almost all the 18z ensemble members are either too warm, too dry, or both. And now the ensembles and models have finally all fallen into reasonable agreement on a solution. The good news is that most show some snow for us as the second baroclinic band swings through (and with the help of some coastal-low development, though it races out to sea quickly). There's also opportunity for some light snow with a secondary vortmax which swings into the trough a couple days later. Most of the ensembles agree that we won't see a large snowstorm, though. That being said, there are a couple ensemble members that hint at it, and it wouldn't take too big a change in the models for it to turn out that way (though it also wouldn't take too big a change to give us no snow at all). It's at least looking reasonable that we'll get some snow at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 This storm went from to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Would think there would be a major lake effect event in wake of the strong short wave dropping through the OV. Euro looks cold enough for a primarily snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Oh how I would love to see some snow this weekend in the Laurel Highlands and Pittsburgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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