PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Precisely what I was thinking. Long range Euro wants to go Miller B. Just dreams at this point. yeah yesterday it was showing more cold air and a better track, now it tracks right through PA. If we can get some snow on the backside of the FROPA I'd be pretty happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 yeah yesterday it was showing more cold air and a better track, now it tracks right through PA. If we can get some snow on the backside of the FROPA I'd be pretty happy! IMHO - you do stand a chance of seeing some flakes - Looks like a bit of a ripper the hours after the FROPA, maybe ends up just west of you in Potter - but I'm hardly knowledgable about these setups. 700mb Rh looks decent enough but no backing HP to set up a wind event from a gradient - could be the main problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 yeah yesterday it was showing more cold air and a better track, now it tracks right through PA. If we can get some snow on the backside of the FROPA I'd be pretty happy! Didn't get a chance to check today's runs cause I had first aid training. GFS and Euro actually aren't too far off from one another. GFS just more ambitious on the block. Actually cuts it off and retrogrades it a bit which forces the PV a hair farther South than the Euro. Not too far off from what we say in '09/'10 like pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 12, 2011 Author Share Posted October 12, 2011 One thing that I am noting that I find interesting is there really seems to be something of a consensus that winter really gets rolling mid-November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 WO - 12z GFS make the period for next week very interesting for us ALL in this region. CAD and cold push arrives about the same time as an imprtnt storm Hrs 162+. Let's see if ECMWF agrees and for more than one run - but this is a very interesting time pd. esp. for the higher elevations. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_12z/avnloopnew.html FOLLOWING A BRIEF VISIT FROM HIGH PRESSURE...A FAST-MOVG FRONTALSYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE IN PA BY SUN NGT. THIS SYS MOVG FM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE NE WILL BE MSTR STARVED AND SHOULD ONLY PRODUCE SPOTTY/LGT RNFL AMTS. A MORE PRONOUNCED SFC HIGH SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED OVR THE NORTHEAST STATES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER MDLS SHOW A STRONG LOW PRES SYS DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE E OF THE MS RVR AND TRACKING TO THE NW OF THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN COLD AIR DAMMING AS THE HIGH RETREATS INTO NEW ENGLD FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RNFL AS DEEP MSTR IS DRAWN NWD ALONG A N-S FRONTAL ZONE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Euro looks to be mostly on board with the GFS and a major storm traversing our region - and it seems to have some cold air with it as well. Could we see a heavy wet one? Nice prelude to winter if so. Also got to wonder if this could be the signature storm ala the LRC threory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 I'm flying out next Wednesday. If I got snowed in, I wouldn't complain! hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Henry is on board with the snow http://www.accuweath...r-and-snowy.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Henry is on board with the snow http://www.accuweath...r-and-snowy.asp UGH - my perfect reverse barometer - Henry M. is on my side?? Means it likely won't be as advertised. (LOL) But hey - blind squirrels and acorns, ya know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 UGH - my perfect reverse barometer - Henry M. is on my side?? Means it likely won't be as advertised. (LOL) But hey - blind squirrels and acorns, ya know. its a bad omen -lol. at least we have the possibility of something exciting and its only october Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 its a bad omen -lol. at least we have the possibility of something exciting and its only october Agreed, although you clearly have more to watch than say, my region. In all fairness Henry is competent enough - but never once, in 3+ years, has he agreed with me and the forecast come out as we both expected it might. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Henry is on board with the snow http://www.accuweath...r-and-snowy.asp There hasn't been a snowflake (real or imaginary) Henry M. wasn't on board with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Ummm - don't look now but CTP is looking to climb on board COMPARING THE ECM AND GFS SHOWS SOME DISCREPANCY OVER THESTRENGHTH OF THE GREENLAND RIDGE. ITS ULTIMATE POSITION AND MUSCLE WILL DETERMINE HOW DEEP THE TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND IF IT WILL CLOSE OFF. IN ANY EVENT...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF BY THURSDAY WITH SOME FLAKES POSSIBLE. LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF -SN UNTIL WE GET SOME CONSISTENT MODEL AGREEMENT...IF AT ALL.-- End Changed Discussion -- http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 If there was some kind of low level cold feed ahead of the system we would be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 If there was some kind of low level cold feed ahead of the system we would be in business. Ya, but there's not... so as it stands we'll have to settle for whatever Lake Effect flurries can make their way over the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 Lots of thunder and lightning tonight - odd for a mid October night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 LOL, I think CTP could have saved a few keystokes and just said showers and thunderstorms once... Friday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11am, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm between 11am and 5pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 Ya, but there's not... so as it stands we'll have to settle for whatever Lake Effect flurries can make their way over the mountains. Which is still doin pretty good in these parts for late October. It def seems like a pretty decent chance of getting the flakes to fly in the Laurel's at the very least. It'll likely be a more classic first true intrusion of cold and flakes in the post-frontal NW flow regime vs any kind of synoptic deal with the low pressure system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 Which is still doin pretty good in these parts for late October. It def seems like a pretty decent chance of getting the flakes to fly in the Laurel's at the very least. It'll likely be a more classic first true intrusion of cold and flakes in the post-frontal NW flow regime vs any kind of synoptic deal with the low pressure system. Agreed on all counts. Looking forward to hopefully seeing some flakes in State College. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 Lots of thunder and lightning tonight - odd for a mid October night. Yeah man, i was impressed with the rumble in the jungle. At first when i heard it, i thought there was an accident on the railroad. Pretty heavy rain again too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 Ya, but there's not... so as it stands we'll have to settle for whatever Lake Effect flurries can make their way over the mountains. Which is still doin pretty good in these parts for late October. It def seems like a pretty decent chance of getting the flakes to fly in the Laurel's at the very least. It'll likely be a more classic first true intrusion of cold and flakes in the post-frontal NW flow regime vs any kind of synoptic deal with the low pressure system. Boo guys. Just boo. I need to move on the other side of the mountains. Tired of being on the wrong side of the dam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 Hmm... as of hr 144 so far on the 12z GFS, I'm quite interested to see what's about to happen on the model. EDIT: Not quite what I was hoping for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 Jeez, it is dumping in Harrisburg again.. I know, no big shock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 Hmm... as of hr 144 so far on the 12z GFS, I'm quite interested to see what's about to happen on the model. EDIT: Not quite what I was hoping for. Step in right direction. More energy held back in the base of the troff. Neat lil clipper system suddenly present that run too. I'm guessing you were hoping clipper diving down + held back energy = BOOM. Me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 Hey look more heavy rain! Harrisburg might as well aim for 100" this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 Hey look more heavy rain! Harrisburg might as well aim for 100" this year. harrisburg is the new Pa rainforest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 harrisburg is the new Pa rainforest. It sure feels that way let me tell you. It rained so hard again last night, i couldn't see the lights acorss the street at the firehouse. insane i tell ya! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 Come winter, I guarantee we'll hit a dry patch though and see very little precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 Step in right direction. More energy held back in the base of the troff. Neat lil clipper system suddenly present that run too. I'm guessing you were hoping clipper diving down + held back energy = BOOM. Me too. Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 Hey look more heavy rain! Harrisburg might as well aim for 100" this year. 63.80" with today's precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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