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Central PA Fall Thread II


JamieOber

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looks rainy to be certain, but doesn't look like serious amounts. Will be interesting to see where exactly the cutoff stalls around our region.

Prolly going weenie style, but maybe the interior NE (down into the PA region might be a stretch) can get some rain to snow/flurries OBS as the the Northern branch kicks into the backside of the ULL and the whole thing swings negative.

Long way to go but one can dream.

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Not good that WJ is posting his concerns about PA into New England in the DC thread :thumbsdown:

NWS State College meanwhile has to admit that it really impossible to see the smaller scale set ups that will mean the difference btwn some rain and a whole lotta rain.

THE FCST ONLY GETS MUDDIER FROM THAT POINT ONWARD HOWEVER AS

THE UPPER TROF REALLY STARTS CARVING OUT OVER THE ERN US. WHILE

THE GFS IS WET THURS NIGHT...THE NAM/SREF AND GEFS ARE MAINLY DRY.

ABOUT THE ONLY CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE A HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT FRIDAY

WILL BE RATHER WET WITH BOTH THE SREF AND GEFS SHOWING HIGH POPS

AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SURGING A CHUNK OF RAIN OUR WAY.

FROM THERE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONFIDENCE ONLY CONTINUES TO FALL

OFF. WHAT SEEMS AGREEABLE IS THAT WE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE

INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE WILL

PROBABLY BE 12-24 HOUR PERIODS OF RELATIVE LULLS IN THE PRECIP BUT

TIMING THEM WITH ANY CONFIDENCE MORE THAN A DAY OR 2 OUT WILL BE

VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE. IT ALL LEADS TO A RATHER REDUNDANT FORECAST

WITH A LOT OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION.

THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER WE SEE ANY HEAVY PRECIP OUT OF THIS

SYSTEM. AS OF NOW THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF BOTH TRY TO DEVELOP A

STRONG WAVE ALONG THE FRONT NEXT TUESDAY WHICH THEY USE TO CRANK

OUT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP. HARDLY WORTH GETTING EXCITED ABOUT

AT THIS RANGE AND WITH THIS PATTERN. AT THIS STAGE I WOULD PLACE

THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR SIG RAINS TO BE ON FRIDAY.-- End Changed Discussion --

With soaking water tables still remaining from Lee, well, there should be some anxious days ahead.

Edit - just noticed the HPC disco that is in full agreement of the water table situation

THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES WILL AFFORD

THE PROLONGED FORCING NECESSARY FOR ANOTHER STRING OF RAINY

DAYS... IN SOME CASES INCIDENTAL WITH AREAS OF NEAR-SATURATED

GROUND FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEMS OF THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

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Not good that WJ is posting his concerns about PA into New England in the DC thread :thumbsdown:

NWS State College meanwhile has to admit that it really impossible to see the smaller scale set ups that will mean the difference btwn some rain and a whole lotta rain.

With soaking water tables still remaining from Lee, well, there should be some anxious days ahead.

Edit - just noticed the HPC disco that is in full agreement of the water table situation

http://www.hpc.ncep....php?disc=pmdepd

Not sure if this was posted, sorry if it was.

A nice write-up from R. Grumm on the heavy rainfall from Lee

Heavy Rain from TS Lee and frontal interactions

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Yes, same here - all black, no brown band in middle.

I haven't seen any yet, but I'm still debating whether to believe any color on a mere caterpillar can have predictable weather outcomes. I only say this because I have seen mulitple winters from varying colors, I really don't see any correlation.

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I haven't seen any yet, but I'm still debating whether to believe any color on a mere caterpillar can have predictable weather outcomes. I only say this because I have seen mulitple winters from varying colors, I really don't see any correlation.

Yeah, totally agree. I have noted a few other nature things that seem to have some correlation, like very active squirrels, plants rushing their seed making process, etc. Both of the ones I've mentioned, I've noted this year.

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Yeah, totally agree. I have noted a few other nature things that seem to have some correlation, like very active squirrels, plants rushing their seed making process, etc. Both of the ones I've mentioned, I've noted this year.

i just said that to my wife the other evning while sitting on the patio about the squirrels. Even the ground hog seemed more active in my neibhors garden then usual

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i just said that to my wife the other evning while sitting on the patio about the squirrels. Even the ground hog seemed more active in my neibhors garden then usual

I hear ground hog and garden in the same sentence my first reaction is "trap and move that bastard." The squirrels here on campus are fat but that's not due to winter, that's due to knowing which students are softies and will give up a few potato chips.

The past few weeks have been very enjoyable for me. I have been traveling on the bus to see my gf in Pittsburgh and have noticed a few trees changing on the Turnpike around Bedford and Johnstown. I am quite excited about the colors I'll be seeing in the next few weeks! :)

Starting to turn up here, check it out: http://146.186.221.252/cgi-bin/jpg/image.cgi?resolution=704x480

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The old good squirrel is a dead squirrel.

We use them as target practice with pellet guns at the wife's grandmothers in Carlisle. Picking them off the fence is super-fun.

Ahh many of my days growing up included sitting on the deck with a Bb gun taking out the tree rats that would come near the bird feeder. Good times

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