our first nudge towards autumn comes thursday through friday

[NorEaster27]

Urban jungle in Howard Beach?

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KNYHOWAR4

[NorEaster27]

beautiful second half of the day, just about perfect.

[nzucker]

Yes, Wild Acres is about 10-15 min away. I'm about 5 min from Childs park. I have lived here roughly 14 years now, originally from N.J.

A normal winter is usually great up here, on average 50+ inches. A lot depends on your elevation. Pike County Pa, is elevation Dependant a lot of the time with the big snows. My house sits at 1,230 feet, but 10 min north up the road, some areas around 1,400-1,600 feet, do real well. Especially when we get the high elevation snowfalls early and late in the season.

We have been seriously lacking big snowfalls up here for many years now, besides 2010-2011 big winter, and 2002-2003. It has been plenty cold, just everything missing to the east. Surprisingly though, last year we still managed to squeak above average.

My family has a house in Lake Como, PA at 1500' in Wayne County. We're well to your north at slightly higher elevation, and I think we average 70-75" snowfall per year. The higher ridges in Wayne County probably see like 90" snowfall per year. Unfortunately, the area has been unlucky in many events, with the majority of Nor'easters having a large cut-off on the northwest side like 2/5/10, 2/10/10, 12/26/10 etc....I remember when I was growing up how deep the snow got in 92-93 and 93-94, and it's been a while since we've experienced an interior winter of that variety.

[PoconoSnow]

My family has a house in Lake Como, PA at 1500' in Wayne County. We're well to your north at slightly higher elevation, and I think we average 70-75" snowfall per year. The higher ridges in Wayne County probably see like 90" snowfall per year. Unfortunately, the area has been unlucky in many events, with the majority of Nor'easters having a large cut-off on the northwest side like 2/5/10, 2/10/10, 12/26/10 etc....I remember when I was growing up how deep the snow got in 92-93 and 93-94, and it's been a while since we've experienced an interior winter of that variety.

Yeah, looks like that area is north of Honesdale, around hour and half from my area. Wayne county,espically northern Wayne county is excellent snow area. The very northern tip of the county recieves 90+ sometimes. Les even makes it's way to visit the area on ocassion up there.

Although we dont normally refer wayne county as the "poconos" north of Honesdale. Extreme Southern wayne county actually has some of the highest peaks of the Poconos. Just north, north west of Tobyhanna in Monroe County, and it has some 2,000-2,200 peaks.

As for snow, ahh it runs in cycles. The interior will get nailed again. Alot of folks up here say, "the poconos haven't had a true winter since the 90's" and i believe it.

[nzucker]

Yeah, looks like that area is north of Honesdale, around hour and half from my area. Wayne county,espically northern Wayne county is excellent snow area. The very northern tip of the county recieves 90+ sometimes. Les even makes it's way to visit the area on ocassion up there.

Although we dont normally refer wayne county as the "poconos" north of Honesdale. Extreme Southern wayne county actually has some of the highest peaks of the Poconos. Just north, north west of Tobyhanna in Monroe County, and it has some 2,000-2,200 peaks.

As for snow, ahh it runs in cycles. The interior will get nailed again. Alot of folks up here say, "the poconos haven't had a true winter since the 90's" and i believe it.

We're about 21 miles north of Honesdale on Route 247. There are some extremely high ridges in the area including Sugarloaf Mountain which is near 2500', I believe. My house is in a lake valley at 1500', and the land steeply rises up to 1800' or so on the roads surrounding our town. I definitely consider it the extreme northern edge of the Poconos, and the climate is definitely more like the Catskills with snowfall averages in the 75-90" range for the higher terrain. The area does extremely well in Nor'easters and yes, does pick up quite a bit of rotting lake effect. I remember many nights as a child waking up to a fresh coating of snow on the lawn outside our house; it's just so easy to pick up an inch or two in that region. Clippers also tend to receive orographic enhancement as they approach the area, and I remember picking up 6-12" a couple times when the lower valleys like Scranton only saw a dusting to an inch. There is also a noticeable downslope as you head towards Hancock, NY which is in the shadow of both Wayne County's ridges and the Catskills; both Hancock, NY and Honesdale, PA receive far less snowfall than our house in Lake Como, although they're still at like 900'.

[NorEaster27]

midweek rain setup?

[PoconoSnow]

We're about 21 miles north of Honesdale on Route 247. There are some extremely high ridges in the area including Sugarloaf Mountain which is near 2500', I believe. My house is in a lake valley at 1500', and the land steeply rises up to 1800' or so on the roads surrounding our town. I definitely consider it the extreme northern edge of the Poconos, and the climate is definitely more like the Catskills with snowfall averages in the 75-90" range for the higher terrain. The area does extremely well in Nor'easters and yes, does pick up quite a bit of rotting lake effect. I remember many nights as a child waking up to a fresh coating of snow on the lawn outside our house; it's just so easy to pick up an inch or two in that region. Clippers also tend to receive orographic enhancement as they approach the area, and I remember picking up 6-12" a couple times when the lower valleys like Scranton only saw a dusting to an inch. There is also a noticeable downslope as you head toward Hancock, NY which is in the shadow of both Wayne County's ridges and the Catskills; both Hancock, NY and Honesdale, PA receive far less snowfall than our house in Lake Como, although they're still at like 900'.

Yeah Wayne county is something else, that is for sure. Amazing how much snow that darn county receives. As for the Poconos, ahh that sure is pushing it. You are pretty darn far north up there and that would basically put all of Wayne county in the "Poconos" . If you look at a map and you went straight east into NY, that area would basically be in the southern/central Catskills. To your west is the Endless Mountains, your basically sandwiched right in between with some great ridges. They do say the Poconos are basically a southwest extension of the Catskills though. I could see it easily being compared to their weather. Especially if you live on any 2k ridges. The thing is, there usually isn't many houses built on ridge lines that high around here atleast..

My area where I live, general elevation changes stay within the 1,000-1,600 feet range locally. Unless of course your down in the valley near Milford/Matamoras roughly 400-500 feet. There is a very noticeable difference from driving across the dingmans bridge from N.J to P.A.. Dingmans bridge sits roughly at 300-400 feet. I have several timewitnesseded it raining there and 5 miles up the road to 1,230 feet at my house, we have 6-12 inches of snow on the ground. We only have two ridge lines in this county that rise above 2k though, and nobody lives there.

My area usually does real well with nor'easters here though, due to my proximity of how close i am to N.J and the elevation helps greatly.Clippers hold together well even this far east.

[earthlight]

another tough cloud forecast on tuesday. upton has temperatures in the mid 70's which i think may be too high. the nam has mid level vorticity over central pa in association with the approaching warm front by 00-06z tuesday. high clouds could move in overnight monday into tuesday...lowering and thickening could squash the change for diurnal heating that would bring temperatures into the 70's. with h85 temperatures around 6 C and clouds i would definitely forecast temperatures more towards the upper 60's to maybe 70 f in the usual warm locations. we will see.

[nzucker]

Yeah Wayne county is something else, that is for sure. Amazing how much snow that darn county receives. As for the Poconos, ahh that sure is pushing it. You are pretty darn far north up there and that would basically put all of Wayne county in the "Poconos" . If you look at a map and you went straight east into NY, that area would basically be in the southern/central Catskills. To your west is the Endless Mountains, your basically sandwiched right in between with some great ridges. They do say the Poconos are basically a southwest extension of the Catskills though. I could see it easily being compared to their weather. Especially if you live on any 2k ridges. The thing is, there usually isn't many houses built on ridge lines that high around here atleast..

My area where I live, general elevation changes stay within the 1,000-1,600 feet range locally. Unless of course your down in the valley near Milford/Matamoras roughly 400-500 feet. There is a very noticeable difference from driving across the dingmans bridge from N.J to P.A.. Dingmans bridge sits roughly at 300-400 feet. I have several timewitnesseded it raining there and 5 miles up the road to 1,230 feet at my house, we have 6-12 inches of snow on the ground. We only have two ridge lines in this county that rise above 2k though, and nobody lives there.

My area usually does real well with nor'easters here though, due to my proximity of how close i am to N.J and the elevation helps greatly.Clippers hold together well even this far east.

I love northern Wayne County...beautiful old farmhouses, plenty of white pine/birch mixing into the forest at higher elevations, and winters that exceed some of the lower elevations of VT such as where I went to college in the Champlain Valley. Geographically, all these areas are part of the Allegheny Plateau which is basically an uplifted area of land that's been heavily eroded, stretching from the Catskill Escarpment to the far reaches of western NY such as Wellsville. We can arbitrarily divide it into the Catskills, the Poconos, etc, but it's all the same geologically.

We have some nice houses built on the ridges...I've seen a good number of cabins at 2000' in northern Wayne. It's certainly mostly wilderness up there, but there are some people with homes who must average >80" snowfall/year. And yes, the difference between Hancock NY and Lake Como PA can be very striking with several inches on the ground at my house with nothing in the Delaware River Valley, which is relatively low in Northern Wayne but gets even lower as you approach the Port Jervis area along 97. Even between my house and the ridges, the difference can be striking; I remember hiking near Starruca PA in January 2009, seeing 18" on the ground during my hiking trip while my house only had like 8". That was right around the time of the clipper that dumped on the orographically favored regions of Wayne County, it might have been 1/17/09 when they received the huge clipper snowfall. Not sure what you got in that.

It's certainly true that the coastal plain has been stealing the snow, however. I believe our primary residence in Dobbs Ferry, NY (NYC metro at 350' elevation) has had as much snow as the vacation cabin in Lake Como in Winters 09-10 and 10-11. That's pretty incredible considering the 80 mile difference in latitude, 1200' in elevation, and being so much closer to the coast. We need another 57-58 or 93-94 where the Poconos get nailed. I still have photos that my parents captured of the 93-94 winter, easily 3' on the ground in Lake Como; I was building massive snow forts and tunnels there during the latter months of that winter.

[earthlight]

not surprisingly the models now have the clouds beginning to take over the skies earlier than forecast yesterday afternoon. These events usually sneak up on you...notice the smaller scale height falls by 21z Monday and the shortwave energy over Central PA by that time. The winds also shift from north/northeast to due east at that time ahead of the warm front.

[CAT5ANDREW]

Pike County Pa is very interesting.I have seen all rain down at Milford but up by Lake Wallenpaupack it is an all out snowstorm.I saw a dusting of snow on OCT 10 1993 up there.THere wa an F3 tornado in Lords Valey between rte 709 and 739 on MAY 31 1998.There was a 1/3rd mile wide of chopped off treetops,something you would expect to see out in the midwest.Wayne County is also very interesting North of Honesdale.There is a place called Duck harbor Pond up Rte 191 past Rileyville about 3.5 miles down a dirt road.IT is beautiful there,I love going there.I have seen LES bands up there.Rte 371 has hills that are like the drops on some roller coasters believe it or not.

[Nikolai]

recurving typhoons=cold spell in 10-14 days... book it! first frosts for the mountains etc.

[PoconoSnow]

Pike County Pa is very interesting.I have seen all rain down at Milford but up by Lake Wallenpaupack it is an all out snowstorm.I saw a dusting of snow on OCT 10 1993 up there.THere wa an F3 tornado in Lords Valey between rte 709 and 739 on MAY 31 1998.There was a 1/3rd mile wide of chopped off treetops,something you would expect to see out in the midwest.Wayne County is also very interesting North of Honesdale.There is a place called Duck harbor Pond up Rte 191 past Rileyville about 3.5 miles down a dirt road.IT is beautiful there,I love going there.I have seen LES bands up there.Rte 371 has hills that are like the drops on some roller coasters believe it or not.

You dont even have to go that far, go 10 min up the road down 01 to Delaware/Dingman township. Gain around 600-1,000 feet, from Milfords 400-500 feet elevation and you will see a major difference.