LocoAko Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 Pretty drastic 24-hour temperature change for locations in NJ/NYC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 16, 2011 Author Share Posted September 16, 2011 Pretty drastic 24-hour temperature change for locations in NJ/NYC: Yeah, I actually used a snippet of that image in a blog post early this morning. At the time, the numbers were more like -20 and -22 in Northern NJ. There was even a -24 24 hour temp change over Northeast PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 I guess I shouldn't have said region wide being busted.. I didn't check NYC GFS MOS too much lately.. Not sure why Albany is continually busting low for such a long period of time now.. it's really just on overnight temps. It is has been doing OK on daytime highs... Overall though.. in Albany, it's performing horrible.. out of 30 participants, it is almost dead last in temp forecasts for the 12, 24, 36, and 48 hour periods.. interestingly, it is performing the worst in the 12 hour period. It seems like the times NYC is able to beat the guidance on the low side is during very strong CAA events especially in the winter when strong winds stay up all night. The MOS was too warm for the quickly falling temperatures in the evening yesterday but did well with the lows once the winds and rate of temperature decline slowed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 16, 2011 Author Share Posted September 16, 2011 The NAM and SREF means are indicating temperatures right around 51 F for NYC tonight. There is a bit of S-N gradient developing with the h850 temperatures by around 00z this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 16, 2011 Author Share Posted September 16, 2011 Here's the gradient being discussed. It actually lessens a bit by this evening, and consensus is for h850 temps around 4 C through the night. Winds are forecast to be relatively calm as well with a northerly component. I think the interior will radiate well tonight..the city will probably be a degree or two warmer than last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 Low was 43F here in Villanova. Gorgeous day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 16, 2011 Author Share Posted September 16, 2011 Looking ahead to the weekend objectively, I think we have some issues with the pleasant weekend being forecasted on the news and radio. I actually heard them proclaim "glorious weekend" on the radio this morning on the way to work. There's a mid level disturbance moving west to east from the lower Great Lakes by Saturday Morning and the models are hinting at a good amount of mid and high clouds. After this, the disturbance actually cuts off aloft (see the image below)..when I think we could see some scattered showers on Sunday. Not completely overcast, but I think the mid-high clouds could hold temperatures down a bit on Saturday...and we could see some spotty showers on Sunday if the forecast guidance has the right idea here. Just something to look out for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 Low was 43F here in Villanova. Gorgeous day. Nice tom.....what was the low in colts neck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 Looks like Noreaster27's call for Upper 50's was a tad bit off. Sorta like his 1-3 inch snowfall forecasts. that call was made 3 days ago.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 that call was made 3 days ago.... And it was just as obviously wrong 3 days ago as it was today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 And it was just as obviously wrong 3 days ago as it was today. Exactly, and he could have updated it if he wanted to. Not one piece of guidance was that warm, and even factoring in UHI, that was a bad forecast. He always does the same thing, forecasts the opposite of what is reasonably expected to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 Low was 43F here in Villanova. Gorgeous day. Sweet dude, that's a winner! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 That one got down to 44.8 too...You need to move out of the bowl you live in! lol. I must be getting a warming affect due to my proximity to the Lake Nanuet Pool lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 I must be getting a warming affect due to my proximity to the Lake Nanuet Pool lol.. I think we need to take up a collection to move you to a new point in the nyc metro. I feel bad for you always being the bridesmaid, never the bride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 I think we need to take up a collection to move you to a new point in the nyc metro. I feel bad for you always being the bridesmaid, never the bride. Yes, please. I'll take some donations. Well... on a bright spot, I did jackpot on the freakish 8/22 - 8/23/2010 rain event with over 6 inches of rain. Otherwise, I'm pretty much a loser. I'm embarassed to share my snowfall totals sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 Yes, please. I'll take some donations. Well... on a bright spot, I did jackpot on the freakish 8/22 - 8/23/2010 rain event with over 6 inches of rain. Otherwise, I'm pretty much a loser. I'm embarassed to share my snowfall totals sometimes. Do what 99% of people on this board do, inflate them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 Do what 99% of people on this board do, inflate them. yea.. either that or I'll use a random number generator... that's the type of shady thing you can expect from someone predicting the first traceable NYC snowfall to be on September 30th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 Looking ahead to the weekend objectively, I think we have some issues with the pleasant weekend being forecasted on the news and radio. I actually heard them proclaim "glorious weekend" on the radio this morning on the way to work. There's a mid level disturbance moving west to east from the lower Great Lakes by Saturday Morning and the models are hinting at a good amount of mid and high clouds. After this, the disturbance actually cuts off aloft (see the image below)..when I think we could see some scattered showers on Sunday. Not completely overcast, but I think the mid-high clouds could hold temperatures down a bit on Saturday...and we could see some spotty showers on Sunday if the forecast guidance has the right idea here. Just something to look out for. definitely something to watch out for. What's interesting is that the GFS is much later with the timing of cutting off the system than the NAM. The difference maker looks to be in the Atlantic. You could see the westward extent of a blocking ridge of high pressure on the NAM whereas the GFS, the feature looks to be further east... but the net result in both models is to eventually form a cutoff upper low within the general vicinity of New England. Regardless, there looks to be at least some high clouds.. at least per the NAM. If anything, it would keep things cooler than currently forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 New Brunswick somehow got all the way down to 42, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 16, 2011 Author Share Posted September 16, 2011 Newark already up to 64 at noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 Yeah I figured staying under 70 might be a struggle for them, though sometimes they hit their high earlier in the afternoon and level off so we'll see. Newark already up to 64 at noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 44 this morning, 48 at HPN, im in the woods though.... Anyways pushing 60 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 12z GFS cooled off a little bit from yesterday's runs. Now has highs in the low 70's for the 21st and 22nd, when yesterday it has 78-82, like the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 Nice tom.....what was the low in colts neck? Tim, 43 in Colts Neck as well, not bad for a mid September morning. We're still in the low 60s right now, 62F in Villanova. That's definitely impressive for this time of year -- more like mid/late October, a month from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 Looks like MJX was the cool spot in the area last night -- 39F low. Gotta love those Pine Barrens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 Sweet dude, that's a winner! When I first moved into Villanova 3 years ago, I thought "oh boy, now I'm in for Philly wx, and I'll be on the outside looking in at the weather in the NYC metro." But luckily for me, it's been very good the past few years. We had 70" in the 09-10 winter here and 45" last winter. Another favorable aspect which I initially overlooked is the elevation, eclipsing even Mt. Zucker, at about 475ft. So when PHL's at 34F and rain, that 500ft can make the difference b/t frozen precip or plain liquid rain. We had a couple of those last winter when everything iced up pretty good (Feb 2nd '11?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 Re high clouds -- we've got plenty around today -- sky has that milky white look right now. The forecast called for mostly sunny, so we've already got more debris than expected today. In addition, the visible satellite to our west certainly doesn't look promising for a sunny weekend. Probably partly to mostly cloudy at times (agree with the earlier posts on this). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 12z GFS cooled off a little bit from yesterday's runs. Now has highs in the low 70's for the 21st and 22nd, when yesterday it has 78-82, like the euro. It will probably be closer to 78, but not much higher than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 Wednesday looks to be at least mid 70s with another cooldown by Friday and a possibly more significant one to end the month It will probably be closer to 78, but not much higher than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 Re high clouds -- we've got plenty around today -- sky has that milky white look right now. Haloed sun FTW! In winter you see it often just before a snowstorm. Easily one of my favorite aspects of the pre-snowstorm buildup in winter time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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