earthlight Posted September 15, 2011 Author Share Posted September 15, 2011 I still don't think the official ob station is getting below 50, but I may eat crow on this one. The one thing that's a bit bothersome is that models are kind of slowing the clearing a bit. Interior areas will have more time to radiate. But I do agree with the thoughts on the winds---they won't be calm--but they won't be howling either. Interestingly, most guidance picks up the NW winds again Friday afternoon and they become more gusty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 I still don't think the official ob station is getting below 50, but I may eat crow on this one. The one thing that's a bit bothersome is that models are kind of slowing the clearing a bit. Interior areas will have more time to radiate. But I do agree with the thoughts on the winds---they won't be calm--but they won't be howling either. Interestingly, most guidance picks up the NW winds again Friday afternoon and they become more gusty. Winds are pretty strong. With wind forecasts I always look at marine weather. For the western LI sound: Today...SW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming W early this afternoon... Then becoming NW 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt late. Seas 1 ft or less...then 2 to 3 ft this afternoon. A slight chance of showers with isolated tstms late this morning. Showers likely with isolated tstms this afternoon. Tonight...NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely in the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 I agree. The High won't be overhead so the winds will doubtfully go calm and most likely be above 10mph throughout the night with the ensuing CAA. This allows for more uniform temps across the board, and if the suburbs are getting into the 40s, NYC will not have a problem doing so as well into the upper 40s. I would even reason that tonight will be cooler than Friday night, IN THE CITY; By then the winds will be calm with the high crossing over, for more ideal radiational cooling (which the city does not do so well this time of year), suburbs are a different story, but tonight I'd have to go with the greater possibility of 40s in NYC. Need to be a bit careful about the timing of the CAA though.. If you look, much of the major CAA is actually through by this evening. Thickness values and 850 mb temps level off during much of the night. The more forceful CAA takes place over northern New England. Per Upton's latest discussion, they see NYC metro having lower 50's tonight: SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM W TO E TONIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. NONE-THE-LESS TEMPS WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL DROPPING INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE TRI-STATE AREA. COULD SEE SOME UPPER 30S IN EXTREME NW ZONES AND LOWER 50S IN THE NYC METRO AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Tonight should be several degrees cooler than tomorrow night in the city. Sfc high pressure will be almost directly overhead tomorrow night, which is more ideal for suburbia, but less conducive to cooling in NYC proper. Generally you like to see a light/moderate N wind for maximum cooling in the park (even the stronger northerly winds tend to chill the city pretty good). Tonight looks like we'll have decent north winds, so plenty of advection from nern suburbs. With that said, I don't think 850's are cold enough to support mid 40s in the city (they're cold enough to support 40-45 in NNJ, locallized 30s), but my best guess right now is they do fall under 50F by a little, 48-49F should do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 I still don't think the official ob station is getting below 50, but I may eat crow on this one. The one thing that's a bit bothersome is that models are kind of slowing the clearing a bit. Interior areas will have more time to radiate. But I do agree with the thoughts on the winds---they won't be calm--but they won't be howling either. Interestingly, most guidance picks up the NW winds again Friday afternoon and they become more gusty. if someone is going to radiate, it will end up being a list minute deal for sure.. the gradient really doesn't let up until close to 12Z.. tomorrow night.. definitely a different story.. High is centered close to us so we should have much more disparity in low temp ranges on Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 15, 2011 Author Share Posted September 15, 2011 Need to be a bit careful about the timing of the CAA though.. If you look, much of the major CAA is actually through by this evening. Thickness values and 850 mb temps level off during much of the night. The more forceful CAA takes place over northern New England. Per Upton's latest discussion, they see NYC metro having lower 50's tonight: this is correct and you can see the 10m winds in response are less than 10 kts at 06z. that's not too bad for radiating at all with clear skies being advertised on the cloud cover maps after 06z as well. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETAPA_12z/f21.gif but notice how the winds increase again tomorrow afternoon...not atypical at all to the morning after a big cold frontal passage and nw flow http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETAPA_12z/f27.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 15, 2011 Author Share Posted September 15, 2011 we are in the last few hours of warm air right now...maybe the last 1 or 2. the models have the temp in the low 60's by 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Here it comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 15, 2011 Author Share Posted September 15, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 front has passed, dews are already droping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 subtle wind swift here to the NW--dews dropped rapidly within last 30 minutes. - what a wimpy squall line given the gradient out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 the top three coldest mornings for 9/16-17 9/16 47 in 1966 48 in 1984 48 in 1964..................... 9/17 45 in 1986 46 in 1959 46 in 1950 .................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 front has passed, dews are already droping Winds have also switched to the North and Northwest areawide and are beginning to surpass 15mph in some locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 the top three coldest mornings for 9/16-17 9/16 47 in 1966 48 in 1984 48 in 1964..................... 9/17 45 in 1986 46 in 1959 46 in 1950 .................... those both look safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Tauntan severely underestimated the surge of warm air before the frontal passage. Their zone forecast for Boston has temps holding steady in the low 70's. They just spiked 5 degrees in the last hour and are sitting at 81.. it'll be even more of a shell shock for them as they had a chance to warm up a bit before the front comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Welcome fall....later summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Amazing how quickly the humidity dropped. It already feels relatively cooler; imagine later when the real chill comes through! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 the top three coldest mornings for 9/16-17 9/16 47 in 1966 48 in 1984 48 in 1964..................... 9/17 45 in 1986 46 in 1959 46 in 1950 .................... 1950, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1986 had a very low August AO index like this year and only 1986 had a positive one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Amazing how quickly the humidity dropped. It already feels relatively cooler; imagine later when the real chill comes through! Will feel amazing to finally push this heat and humidity out of here. Hopefully, for good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 GFS MOS takes it right to 50 Friday am. http://www.nws.noaa....mav.pl?sta=KNYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 GFS MOS takes it right to 50 Friday am. http://www.nws.noaa....mav.pl?sta=KNYC Looks like NAM MOS takes NYC down to 47? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 48 degrees currently in Binghamton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 15, 2011 Author Share Posted September 15, 2011 newark down 2 degrees since 12pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 48 degrees currently in Binghamton. that's significant...It just might drop below 50 tomorrow morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Most showers behind the front, but a nice little TS fired up along the windshift line over central LI during the past 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 GFS MOS takes it right to 50 Friday am. http://www.nws.noaa....mav.pl?sta=KNYC I don't know about the NYC area, but I can tell you that Albany GFS MOS has been busting 5 degrees too low all week. I am playing in an Albany forecasting contest and GFS MOS is one of the opponents and it has been missing the mark on night time lows.. That might not be the case in NYC though. I really haven't checked.. but just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 I don't know about the NYC area, but I can tell you that Albany GFS MOS has been busting 5 degrees too low all week. I am playing in an Albany forecasting contest and GFS MOS is one of the opponents and it has been missing the mark on night time lows.. That might not be the case in NYC though. I really haven't checked.. but just sayin' Yeah,we'll have to see how it performs with a strong cold frontal passage.It's very close to the NAM 2m T's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 48 degrees currently in Binghamton. most of the places in the 40's right now have wet bulbed down to those temps in the rain. I don't think that's a luxury NYC will have tonight to achive those temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Tauntan severely underestimated the surge of warm air before the frontal passage. Their zone forecast for Boston has temps holding steady in the low 70's. They just spiked 5 degrees in the last hour and are sitting at 81.. it'll be even more of a shell shock for them as they had a chance to warm up a bit before the front comes through. Shirley, NY has also hit 80 degrees Fahrenheit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 The storms are really poppin out in suffolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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