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Sept. 14-30 Severe Weather thread


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The latest SPC Day 2 for Sunday does have a 5% "See Text" area from southern Illinois down to northern Louisiana--and there were some storms (non-severe, but enough to delay HS football games) in southern IL last night. Nothing here in Springfield as usual--but some nice clouds from the distant storms as the sun was setting made for some beautiful sunset scenery.

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The latest SPC Day 2 for Sunday does have a 5% "See Text" area from southern Illinois down to northern Louisiana--and there were some storms (non-severe, but enough to delay HS football games) in southern IL last night. Nothing here in Springfield as usual--but some nice clouds from the distant storms as the sun was setting made for some beautiful sunset scenery.

Day 2 Slight for a narrow area from about Vienna, IL southward to south-central AR:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2198

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0203 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL THROUGH ERN AR INTO NWRN MS AND WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 251903Z - 252130Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SCNTRL THROUGH ERN AR

AND WRN TN BY 20-22Z. THREAT WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING

SEGMENTS WITH LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND

THROUGH MID EVENING. A WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 20Z-21Z.

QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL KY SWWD THROUGH WRN

TN...CNTRL AR AND N-CNTRL TX. THIS FRONT SHOULD SHIFT SWD THROUGH

THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING AS PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS

THROUGH THE WRN TN VALLEY AND SWRN PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY. THE

WARM SECTOR HAS BECOME MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE ESPECIALLY

ACROSS SRN AR WHERE PLUME OF 7.5-8 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE

OVERSPREAD MOIST AXIS RESULTING IN 2500 J/KG MLCAPE. THE BOUNDARY

LAYER REMAINS CAPPED. HOWEVER...CIRRUS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER

MS VALLEY AND APPEARS TO BE A RESULT OF ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF

AN UPPER JET MOVING SWD ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF CUTOFF UPPER LOW.

COMBINATION OF DIABATIC WARMING AND DEEPER ASCENT WITHIN FRONTAL

ZONE SHOULD EVENTUALLY PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE

NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE VEERED TO SSWLY OVER

SRN AR WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOST UNSTABLE. LARGEST HODOGRAPHS

EXIST FARTHER EAST ALONG MIGRATORY LLJ AXIS OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE

TN VALLEY. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FROM 35-45 KT AND EXPECTED STORM

RELATIVE HELICITY FROM 150-300 M2/S2 WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS

INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO MIXED

MODES WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS.

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TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN

405 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

SOUTHEASTERN CROSS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 406 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR VILLAGE CREEK STATE

PARK...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO EARLE...

MARION...PARKIN...WEST MEMPHIS AND VILLAGE CREEK STATE PARK.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES AREAS NEAR BRANDYWINE LAKE AND WAPANOCCA

LAKE.

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Got a bit of a donut showing up up radar.

Shelby County now under a warning.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

NORTHERN SHELBY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

SOUTHWESTERN TIPTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 441 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR CRAWFORDSVILLE...OR 7

MILES WEST OF MARION...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MARION...

WEST MEMPHIS...BARTLETT...MIDTOWN MEMPHIS...MILLINGTON...CORDOVA

AND MEEMAN SHELBY FOREST STATE PARK.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES AREAS NEAR BRANDYWINE LAKE...CORONEE LAKE

AND WAPANOCCA LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE TENNIS BALL SIZE

HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

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Just updated 00Z Smartcast Output and highlighting the LA/TN/AR areas. Showing highest threat areas across the Shreveport, Nasvhille, Jackson, El Dorado, and Monticello areas. Seeing LI's around -6, SFC CAPE around 2231 J/KG, and pretty good SRH 0-1KM of 165 and 0-3Km SRH 269. Complete upload http://smartwxmodel.net/

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Possibly a strong tornado just hit the town of Cleveland, MS. Next county over, where the rotation is now, dispatch reports major damage in Cleveland.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS

818 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2011

MSC011-260145-

/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0206.000000T0000Z-110926T0145Z/

BOLIVAR MS-

818 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL

BOLIVAR COUNTY...

AT 816 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO

TRACK A TORNADO REPORTED ON THE GROUND OFF RULEVILLE ROAD AS OF

814PM NEAR CLEVELAND. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED IN CLEVELAND MOVING

SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE

INDICATED COUNTY.

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS

831 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2011

MSC083-133-260215-

/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0207.000000T0000Z-110926T0215Z/

SUNFLOWER MS-LEFLORE MS-

831 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT FOR LEFLORE

AND NORTHERN SUNFLOWER COUNTIES...

AT 830 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO

TRACK A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR RULEVILLE MOVING

SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS HAVE CONFIRMED

SUBSTABTIAL DAMAGE IN THE STANTON SUBDIVISION NORTHWEST OF CLEVELAND

AS THIS STORM PASSED.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

DODDSVILLE...BLAINE...SUNFLOWER...MINTER CITY...SCHLATER...

SUNNYSIDE...ITTA BENA...MORGAN CITY...MONEY...QUITO...GREENWOOD AND

SIDON

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Storm to the SW now has a TOG.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS

843 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2011

MSC011-133-151-260230-

/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0208.000000T0000Z-110926T0230Z/

WASHINGTON MS-SUNFLOWER MS-BOLIVAR MS-

843 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN

BOLIVAR...CENTRAL SUNFLOWER AND NORTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 843 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED A TORNADO WAS ON

THE GROUND NEAR BENOIT MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SHAW...

HOLLY RIDGE AND INDIANOLA

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