Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 Mesoscale Discussion #2179 concerning NE Arkansas and SE Missouri for a possible watch this afternoon: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2179.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 You know it's an inactive period when we have 16 day severe threads... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 You know it's an inactive period when we have 16 day severe threads... Yeah, we could probably get away with one thread for the entire month of September. I know that is normally a slow month, severe-wise (other than the occasional tropical remnant), as others have posted stats in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Yeah, we could probably get away with one thread for the entire month of September. I know that is normally a slow month, severe-wise (other than the occasional tropical remnant), as others have posted stats in the past. Something tells me that next month might get active again, last few Octobers have been interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Something tells me that next month might get active again, last few Octobers have been interesting. We could use an Octobomb II. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 We could use an Octobomb II. or III. two next month would be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 or III. two next month would be fun Heck, I'd take another 10/24/01 or 10/18/07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 just glancing at saturday alittle bit and im bored... If I'm looking at the 0z NAM alone and if its a perfect prog (which it's not) put me in PTT right on the dryline/warm front intersection. It's showing alot of ongoing convection into the early afternoon which I don't like but has redevelopment in the evening from what looks like enough sfc heating (near 90 degrees right behind the not half bad dryline) and little hints of small waves rippling along in the mean flow. 35kts of shear isn't too bad and with good turning from the sfc-H5, something could be halfway decent. This run of the NAM is also showing the drought...if you look at the dew points from 18z-0z you can see its mixing out the low-level moisture east of the dryline. Another problem I see in model land is the weak sfc winds being progged. It is showing a fairly impressive LLJ around 35kts. Something to watch in the coming days if nothing more in what has been a pretty boring pattern around here lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 I'll take a side of November witch ala 11/10/98 for dessert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*IndyMeso* Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 For those interested (and I'm not sure if this has already been posted somewhere or not) the SPC has updated their 10 and 30 year tornado statistics by state. What I find interesting is the 10 Year Total: Tornado Fatalities per State (2001-2010) where Indiana is showing one of the higher totals but, this does include the Evansville Tornado in November of 2005. Enjoy! http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 Heck, I'd take another 10/24/01 or 10/18/07 +100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2011 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... A PROGRESSIVE/LOW-AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS ON SATURDAY...WITH THE RELATIVELY STRONGEST WESTERLIES CONFINED TO THE CONUS NORTHERN TIER. HIGHLIGHTED WITHIN THIS REGIME...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE CONUS NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... THE SOUTHERN INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED EASTWARD-ADVANCING NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS TROUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH A GRADUAL NORTHWARD MOISTURE RETURN AND INCREASINGLY PREVALENT SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. INITIALLY...WARM ADVECTION-DRIVEN EARLY DAY SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS...BUT LITTLE OR NO SEVERE POTENTIAL IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS EARLY DAY ACTIVITY. IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION...A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS ANTICIPATED NEAR/EAST OF THE SHARPENING HIGH PLAINS SURFACE TROUGH ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST TX/WESTERN OK INTO SOUTHERN KS...WITH CURRENT INDICATIONS FOR AS MUCH AS 1000-2000 J/KG SBCAPE IN THESE AREAS BY AFTERNOON AMID LOWER/PERHAPS MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. STRONGER HEATING NEAR/WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT NEAR-BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE AND THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SURFACE BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY MODEST /30-35 KT/...THE EXPECTED COMBINATION OF BUOYANCY/VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SUSTAINED/SEMI-ORGANIZED STORMS POTENTIALLY INCLUDING SOME SUPERCELLS ACROSS NORTHWEST TX/WESTERN OK/SOUTHERN KS. SEVERE HAIL/WIND WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...OTHER MORE MARGINAL AND/OR ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN AREAS SUCH AS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AS WELL AS WEST/SOUTHWEST TX. SEVERE HAIL/WIND MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS...BUT MAINLY ON A LOCALIZED BASIS. SATURDAY NIGHT...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE/SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER MO VALLEY VICINITY AMID A STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION REGIME. WHILE THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE BY LATE EVENING...SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HAIL. ..GUYER.. 09/16/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 Like saturday alitle bit more looking at the NAM..has less ongoing precip, tad stronger H5 winds (35kts) better looking dryline with nice convergence along it in the late afternoon/evening where its developing storms in western OK. It's also not mixing out low-level moisture like last nights run. The turning is really great, nicely back sfc winds to westerlies aloft. Also a nice 0-3km SRH bullseye of 300 in that area as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 tomorrow continues to look better and better...low-level shear actually looking pretty darn good, look at those strongly backed sfc winds near the sfc low around I-70/HLC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 near Great Bend, KS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 I've posted my thoughts regarding the possibility of severe weather for Texas tomorrow. I plan on going out and enjoying what may be our only chance of supercells this fall. My thoughts posted over at http://texasstormchasers.com/2011/09/16/severe-weather-possible-on-saturday-storm-chase-looks-likely/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 Good to see I'm not the only one watching this (hopefully meaning I'm not totally delusional). I'm leaning toward a leisurely drive out toward the CDS-LTS corridor early tomorrow afternoon. Agree with David that this could well be our only supercell event this fall; even if it's not, it's our first in over three months, which is good enough for me. Tornado potential will be low everywhere, but probably maximized in C KS as indicated by baro's sounding; however, I'm not sure I want to sacrifice instability and structure/hail potential for the outside shot at a transient tube. Will have to make that call in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 Good to see I'm not the only one watching this (hopefully meaning I'm not totally delusional). I'm leaning toward a leisurely drive out toward the CDS-LTS corridor early tomorrow afternoon. Agree with David that this could well be our only supercell event this fall; even if it's not, it's our first in over three months, which is good enough for me. Tornado potential will be low everywhere, but probably maximized in C KS as indicated by baro's sounding; however, I'm not sure I want to sacrifice instability and structure/hail potential for the outside shot at a transient tube. Will have to make that call in the morning. It's Thundersnow's sounding . lol His avatar throws me off too. Good luck on your chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 It's Thundersnow's sounding . lol His avatar throws me off too. Good luck on your chase. haha sorry guys, didn't mean to do that. 0z NAM looking like it has two different targets. Caprock magic on the dryline from AMA-LBB or the dryline/warm front intersection up in KS....DDC-GBD-PTT triangle. I don't like the weak mid-levels but hopefully its enough to do the trick, sfc and 850mb winds look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 Well this would be interesting, especially because we need the rain. I'm leaving Dallas at about 11 AM with the plan to head up US-287 to the northwest. I'll either continue west on US-82 from there for the 'southern' target towards Lubbock, or continue northwest towards Childress on US-287. I don't really have a gut instinct on what could happen tomorrow, mainly because its been so long since a chase, but I've got a friend coming along and figure its only five hours out. If this event turns out to be nothing, at least we'll get some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 I'll just sit on the couch and wait for that supe' to drift right over top of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 5% area now CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS AND THE 12Z RAOB DATA...ESPECIALLY 850 MB DEWPOINTS OF 17-18C AT BOTH MAF AND AMA... SUGGEST THAT SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE INFLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW HALF OF OK AND SW/S CNTRL KS TODAY. COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY COOL MID LVL TEMPS ALONG AND N OF SRN STREAM JET...AMPLE INSTABILITY /SBCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/ LIKELY WILL DEVELOP TO SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS. WITH 25-30 KT WLY MID LVL FLOW...SETUP SHOULD YIELD A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND. TORNADOES ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR PERSISTENT BACKED LOW LVL WINDS E/SE OF SW KS SFC LOW. MORE WIDELY SCTD STORMS MAY DEVELOP SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE AFTN SW ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE INTO W CNTRL AND PERHAPS SW TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 thats a nice looking boundary on the KS/OK border this evening..and the RUC progging CAPE values >5000 j/kg..overdone but still. This day could of been alot more interesting with more 0-6km shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 moisture axis setting up from north central TX up into west central OK as of 18z. 84/70 at JWG....not bad for mid september. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 Hello all, just pushed out 18Z SmartCast update and zoning in on the Oklahoma City to Altus, OK areas. Seeing good environmentals for severe thunderstorms across this area this afternoon. Current Lifted Index's around -7 to -8 in the area. Surface based CAPES running about 2,000 J/KG, and SSI running about -3.1. Seeing potential for strong convective winds of up to 60 knots across this area. Tornado threat still kinda low for this area, so thinking main threat will be strong winds. Complete output updated at http://smartwxmodel.net Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2183 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0202 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SW/S CNTRL KS AND WRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 171902Z - 172030Z A WATCH LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. INSOLATION AND A LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE...CHARACTERIZED BY MID 60S+ F SURFACE DEW POINTS...ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE TO STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGHING SHIFTING EAST OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WHILE MIGRATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT AN AREA OF AT LEAST WEAK MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WHICH PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THIS WILL OCCUR BY THE 20-22Z TIME FRAME...ROUGHLY IN AN AREA BOUNDED BY GAGE...ENID AND MEDICINE LODGE. VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION IS STILL FAIRLY MODEST...BUT BACKING LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A 30-40 KT WESTERLY 500 MB JET STREAK...SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 850 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 230 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 230 PM UNTIL 1100 PM CDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF ENID OKLAHOMA TO 45 MILES NORTHEAST OF DODGE CITY KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO NEAR INTERSECTION OF DRY LINE/CONFLUENCE ZONE ARCING EWD ACROSS FAR ERN PARTS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLE...AND WNW-ESE ORIENTED OUTFLOW BNDRY/WARM FRONT OVER NRN OK. IN THIS AREA...COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING...CONTINUED LOW LVL MOISTURE INFLOW /AVERAGE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 60S F/...AND WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPR IMPULSE NOW OVER SW KS EXPECTED TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE REGION. AREA VWP DATA AND FCST WIND FIELDS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS...ENHANCING THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND. TORNADOES ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY WITH ANY STORMS THAT MOVE MORE OR LESS PARALLEL TO/IN TANDEM WITH OUTFLOW BNDRY/WARM FRONT. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27020. ...CORFIDI Watching David's stream right now, looks he had some TCU going up in front of him. Couple of cells went up on radar west of Woodward. SLGT Risk and 5% tor. probs also expanded in 20z outlook... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 I'll just be glad to see some supercells that aren't anywhere near canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 Lol David with the GGW bus in Enid... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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