Ticking Down the Days

[moneypitmike]

Are you talking about Storrs? That station might as well be at BDL it runs so warm. The Storrs climate is closer to IJD than Tolland or Willimantic to the north. Coventry is the same too.

I don't follow BDL closely, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if they kick my butt on some of the colder nights. CEF, ORE, BAF sure as hell do. As do 98% of the PWS out there.

[CoastalWx]

I like how Mike has come out of his cocoon and become Pete.

Yes, the high elevation peeps must unite. Two weenies become one.

[moneypitmike]

I like how Mike has come out of his cocoon and become Pete.

Well, when someone says something absurd, you need to respond. When it comes to things like leaf drop, leaf color, that just needs to be viewed for comparison (as I posted from the Channel 22 anchor last night).

WHen it comes to something clearly empircal like temperature that can be verified, you've got to just laugh and post the evidence. Also, just take a look at the PDFamily site any day and 90% of the time you'll see the strip of ground that runs in western Mass up into VT (away from the CT and Hoosick(?) valleys) that are oh so much more comfortable than the rest of SNE.

Note that this comment has NOTHING to do with departures. I'm talking about absolute temps relative to the rest of SNE.

[snowman21]

LOL this has turned into a my weenie is bigger than your weenie debate.

These debates get annoying because they're never rooted in anything that involves actual numbers or long term statistical analysis. People can laugh at the numbers I post, but they're from NCDC 30-year averages which is more than anyone else has offered, and I am very upfront in stating the source and caveats regarding the numbers/methodology so there's transparency. The only counter I ever seem to get is anecdotal. At least MetHerb has kept accurate records for a long time so his arguments have some validity to them.

[moneypitmike]

These debates get annoying because they're never rooted in anything that involves actual numbers or long term statistical analysis. People can laugh at the numbers I post, but they're from NCDC 30-year averages which is more than anyone else has offered, and I am very upfront in stating the source and caveats regarding the numbers/methodology so there's transparency. The only counter I ever seem to get is anecdotal. At least MetHerb has kept accurate records for a long time so his arguments have some validity to them.

I think I posted PWS charts/summary to support my rebuttle of Kevin's erroneous claim. Similar summaries from Conway, Guilford, Marlboro, and other sites "in the western mass strip" support mine (which is neither the highest nor lowest of the group).

[scoob40]

Well, when someone says something absurd, you need to respond. When it comes to things like leaf drop, leaf color, that just needs to be viewed for comparison (as I posted from the Channel 22 anchor last night).

WHen it comes to something clearly empircal like temperature that can be verified, you've got to just laugh and post the evidence. Also, just take a look at the PDFamily site any day and 90% of the time you'll see the strip of ground that runs in western Mass up into VT (away from the CT and Hoosick(?) valleys) that are oh so much more comfortable than the rest of SNE.

Note that this comment has NOTHING to do with departures. I'm talking about absolute temps relative to the rest of SNE.

MRG has posted in OT that he does not consider himself as residing in SNE as he states his location has nothing in common with at least 95% of SNE. Isn't it fair to say that you sir are in the same boat ?

[moneypitmike]

LOL this has turned into a my weenie is bigger than your weenie debate.

I think it's more of a "there's no way your weenie is as big as mine" debate. Maybe Kevin uses a slant-ruler to measure his as one might with snowfall.

[CoastalWx]

I think it's more of a "there's no way your weenie is as big as mine" debate. Maybe Kevin uses a slant-ruler to measure his as one might with snowfall.

Well he's Irish, so he has the little man syndrome.

[SnowMan]

I think it's more of a "there's no way your weenie is as big as mine" debate. Maybe Kevin uses a slant-ruler to measure his as one might with snowfall.

[Ginx snewx]

These debates get annoying because they're never rooted in anything that involves actual numbers or long term statistical analysis. People can laugh at the numbers I post, but they're from NCDC 30-year averages which is more than anyone else has offered, and I am very upfront in stating the source and caveats regarding the numbers/methodology so there's transparency. The only counter I ever seem to get is anecdotal. At least MetHerb has kept accurate records for a long time so his arguments have some validity to them.

Have you really looked at NCDC snowfall avg and not wondered? The data is skewed horrendously, Will has said so, enuff said. But any way here are some short term numbers to ponder.

[snowman21]

I think I posted PWS charts/summary to support my rebuttle of Kevin's erroneous claim. Similar summaries from Conway, Guilford, Marlboro, and other sites "in the western mass strip" support mine (which is neither the highest nor lowest of the group).

I know you did. But notice how the 33 inch average number which I threw out there, that I myself stated up front was too low, all of a sudden is the one number that everyone latches on to in order to invalidate the rest of the numerical evidence I presented? Not for nothing, but if the 33 is too low in the NE CT average, surely the NW CT average number must also be too low, or does NCDC only discriminate against stations in NE CT? Ask anyone on here what their average snowfall is and no one has an idea other than "it's most definitely more than such and such place." Unfortunately that doesn't fly in science.

[moneypitmike]

MRG has posted in OT that he does not consider himself as residing in SNE as he states his location has nothing in common with at least 95% of SNE. Isn't it fair to say that you sir are in the same boat ?

No, I don't think that's the case at all. Geographically, we are in SNE and climatologically, SNE has a wide-range of experiences. GC is on one extreme, Kevin's on the other (j/k Kevin). But that's like saying coastal RI isn't part of SNE becasue of the cooling effect of the water. Do we have different weather (particularly temps and sometimes snow) than 95% of SNE? Sure. But I grew up freezing my ass off during New London springs (or lack thereof) while inland would be basking in 75* warmth. The Hartford stations would be talking about how warm it was and I'd be like warm, my ass. I was still SNE there. Interestingly, both there and here in GC I get to live comfortably without the need (or ownership) of an air conditioner.

One thing that I will say in defense of Pete's statement is that we are oft neglected from mention in BOX AFD's unless the situation is shared by northern ORH county. That's not true all the time, but sometimes we are the red-headed step child of the CWA. But to quote Michael Vick from Sunday, "I'm not complaining. I'm just making you aware of it."

[moneypitmike]

Have you really looked at NCDC snowfall avg and not wondered? The data is skewed horrendously, Will has said so, muff said. But any way here are some short term numbers to ponder.

http://www.americanw...e-snowfall-map/

Congrats, again, Steve.

[wxmanmitch]

By the looks of it on Google Maps, there are some residential properties in Salisbury, CT around Riga Lake (right along NY line in the Taconics) that are around 1,700-1,800 feet ASL. In addition to being the highest residential area in CT, this is probably the snowiest residential area in CT as well, and probably exceeds my annual snowfall here in Lenox, MA. I'd estimate this location averages 85-90" a winter. Not bad for CT.

[moneypitmike]

I know you did. But notice how the 33 inch average number which I threw out there, that I myself stated up front was too low, all of a sudden is the one number that everyone latches on to in order to invalidate the rest of the numerical evidence I presented? Not for nothing, but if the 33 is too low in the NE CT average, surely the NW CT average number must also be too low, or does NCDC only discriminate against stations in NE CT? Ask anyone on here what their average snowfall is and no one has an idea other than "it's most definitely more than such and such place." Unfortunately that doesn't fly in science.

Excellent point. Unfortuantley, it really does discriminate and gives NE CT a handicap.

[powderfreak]

My mountain gets more snow than your mountain... Haha, I love these arguments.

[powderfreak]

GFS tries to give the tallest mtns of WV some snow Friday night. Low develops overhead Saturday.

BTV has been mentioning some relatively low snow levels... 2,000ft starts to get into some inhabited areas.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...AS OF 405 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THEAREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND DOES NOT PUSH EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRYUNTIL LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERSACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. COLDER AIR ALOFT WILLMOVE IN ON SATURDAY AND IT APPEARS THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELYDROP TO AROUND 2000 OR 2500 FEET LATER ON SATURDAY. THUS ANYSHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE SHOWERS WILL END BYMIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVERTHE AREA. UPPER TROUGH THAT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA WILL BE SLOWTO PUSH OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD...SO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULDPERSIST ON SUNDAY AS WELL.

[snowman21]

Have you really looked at NCDC snowfall avg and not wondered? The data is skewed horrendously, Will has said so, muff said. But any way here are some short term numbers to ponder.

Of course I wonder and recognize the obvious errors. In fact, I was the one that pointed out that my own calculated snowfall average was in error and said so in the very first post, so it wasn't as if I was being disingenuous. People are missing the bigger picture I think and focusing too much on the individual station errors.

[IrishRob17]

Well he's Irish, so he has the little man syndrome.

Really? Really?? You had to go there?

[moneypitmike]

My mountain gets more snow than your mountain... Haha, I love these arguments.

I know it does. I won't debate.

Meanwhile, I working on the deck today (you'd never know it). Flannel shirt and fleece on. But since it's 76* in Tolland and we have the same weather, I must really be over dressed.

Cool breeze.

[powderfreak]

LOL..I love how he posts pics from other yrs and claims they are current. There is nowhere anywhere in NEw England that is at peak color like that. Even in NNE

To be fair... that color looks about right for 2,000-3,000ft in the northern Greens right now. Maybe even down to 1,500ft plateaus or so.

[powderfreak]

I know it does. I won't debate.

Meanwhile, I working on the deck today (you'd never know it). Flannel shirt and fleece on. But since it's 76* in Tolland and we have the same weather, I must really be over dressed.

Cool breeze.

Haha, that was totally sarcastic comment on my point... they are funny arguments. Of course there's always somewhere snowier and somewhere colder. Just live with what you've got.

GC is in a different world... I have no problem with the temperatures until the lapse rates start to not make sense (which seems to happen a lot). There's no reason that 1,500ft should be 10F cooler than 500ft. And often its larger than that between the low elevations and high els.

Feels warm up here... 68/58. Average high is 66F so we're close for daytime temps but... Last night's low was a whopping 62F after midnight. That's a full +19F departure from normal (43F). We dipped into the 50s before midnight though.

[moneypitmike]

Haha, that was totally sarcastic comment on my point... they are funny arguments. Of course there's always somewhere snowier and somewhere colder. Just live with what you've got.

Feels warm up here... 68/58. Average high is 66F so we're close for daytime temps but... Last night's low was a whopping 62F after midnight. That's a full +19F departure from normal (43F). We dipped into the 50s before midnight though.

I know. I have no idea what my average high is here--I think your's is lower though than 66 as ORH is 64.9 on this date.

[powderfreak]

I know. I have no idea what my average high is here--I think your's is lower though than 66 as ORH is 64.9 on this date.

My bad... just checked for this date the average at MVL (ASOS about 9 miles from me and closest good climo data) is 65/41 for today. I was using numbers from a few days ago. The ASOS is at 730ft and I'm at 800ft so we are *usually* pretty close to each other in terms of temps. I'm talking about the village center of Stowe... obviously if you head up the road towards the ski resort it gets cooler based on normal lapse rates.

We normally have a pretty high diurnal range though being in a mountain valley surrounded by 3,000-3,600ft ridgeline (Worcester Mtns) to the east and the Green Mountain Spine to the west... we radiate well at night (thus the 41F low) but also warm up in the day.

[moneypitmike]

My bad... just checked for this date the average at MVL (ASOS about 9 miles from me and closest good climo data) is 65/41 for today. I was using numbers from a few days ago. The ASOS is at 730ft and I'm at 800ft so we are *usually* pretty close to each other in terms of temps. I'm talking about the village center of Stowe... obviously if you head up the road towards the ski resort it gets cooler based on normal lapse rates.

We normally have a pretty high diurnal range though being in a mountain valley surrounded by 3,000-3,600ft ridgeline (Worcester Mtns) to the east and the Green Mountain Spine to the west... we radiate well at night (thus the 41F low) but also warm up in the day.

Don't rub it in.

I just snapped a couple pictures here at the Pit. While we're a few days off of Pete, these are really showing how drab they are here compared to those further south by him (and north I imagine). I don't think these will be captured well, but I took a couple that I tried to highlight how crappy these leaves are. They are going yellow and then brown right on the trees. Lots of them dorpping as you can seem some are quite bare and others are certainly thinning. I wonder how they'll be after the upcoming rains.

Meanwhile, getting pelted by leaves as I sit here.

[CapturedNature]

I get what you're saying, but you're talking about one specific point in the state whereas my averages are scattered about a wider area and range of elevations which is more indicative of the regional climate than just picking one of the highest spots in a region. It would be like using the highest point in NW CT (over 2,300 ft) to say that the NW averages 100 inches or more of snow and has an average winter time temperature around 20. I wouldn't use that to represent the climate of NW CT, and using Union or the few high spots in NE CT that might compete with average NW CT weather is not representative either. For the sake of transparency, the average elevation of the NW stations is 707 ft with a range of 260-1340. In the NE the average was 453 ft with a range of 247-736.

I was actually refering to our whole area. I think my records are pretty representative of the area, included places just across the border in Mass. (weather doesn't stop at the border). I'm talking about 1/2 of Somers, Stafford, Union and the towns to the south of me. The whole area is an elevated plateau. If the low point is just under 500' and the hills averages about 1000', we're talking an average close to the NW stations.

I'll agree about taking out the extreme places like the higher elevations of Union....I was just including that for reference. I'm actually smack in the middle on Stafford. I think I'm a fair mix of the high spots and low spots. BTW, I appreciate how you take a statistical approach to the problem. That's better than guessing.

[ORH_wxman]

I was actually refering to our whole area. I think my records are pretty representative of the area, included places just across the border in Mass. (weather doesn't stop at the border). I'm talking about 1/2 of Somers, Stafford, Union and the towns to the south of me. The whole area is an elevated plateau. If the low point is just under 500' and the hills averages about 1000', we're talking an average close to the NW stations.

I'll agree about taking out the extreme places like the higher elevations of Union....I was just including that for reference. I'm actually smack in the middle on Stafford. I think I'm a fair mix of the high spots and low spots. BTW, I appreciate how you take a statistical approach to the problem. That's better than guessing.

I have estimated that area to be between 55-60" for annual snowfall...with the 60" being in areas like Union. Maybe a little higher than 60" on the highest hills near the border.

[CapturedNature]

I know there are a few that are around a 1,000 feet and about one or two that are at 1200 (just SW of Union). Where exactly is the 1315'?

Burley Hill - It doesn't show up right on Google Maps:

http://maps.google.com/?ll=42.015472,-72.210817&spn=0.015177,0.043774&t=p&z=15&vpsrc=6

Here it is on an olderUSGS quad:

http://docs.unh.edu/MA/wale52sw.jpg - Look in the lower left of the image and you should see it.

http://docs.unh.edu/MA/wale52se.jpg

And one to the south of that:

http://docs.unh.edu/CT/wtfd52nw.jpg

http://docs.unh.edu/CT/wtfd52ne.jpg

[CapturedNature]

I have estimated that area to be between 55-60" for annual snowfall...with the 60" being in areas like Union. Maybe a little higher than 60" on the highest hills near the border.

Hmmm....I'm just north of Stafford Springs and here's what I've received for the past 25 seasons (I know it's not a full 30 years). If you average the seasons, it comes out to 58.8" but if sum up the average of the individual months, it's 57.9". I'm not sure if that's helpful or not in figuring out an average.

1987 61.1

1988 67.0

1989 21.8

1990 48.9

1991 27.9

1992 30.0

1993 72.4

1994 75.9

1995 27.8

1996 133.3

1997 78.1

1998 42.4

1999 50.3

2000 36.0

2001 93.3

2002 16.8

2003 86.8

2004 60.3

2005 79.5

2006 67.6

2007 31.4

2008 54.9

2009 63.6

2010 53.4

2011 90.8

[Damage In Tolland]

Hmmm....I'm just north of Stafford Springs and here's what I've received for the past 25 seasons (I know it's not a full 30 years). If you average the seasons, it comes out to 58.8" but if sum up the average of the individual months, it's 57.9". I'm not sure if that's helpful or not in figuring out an average.

1987 61.1

1988 67.0

1989 21.8

1990 48.9

1991 27.9

1992 30.0

1993 72.4

1994 75.9

1995 27.8

1996 133.3

1997 78.1

1998 42.4

1999 50.3

2000 36.0

2001 93.3

2002 16.8

2003 86.8

2004 60.3

2005 79.5

2006 67.6

2007 31.4

2008 54.9

2009 63.6

2010 53.4

2011 90.8

It's a snowy area no doubt. man that 2002 sticks out like a sore weenie. What an awful, awful winter that was. I remember we ha that one early Dec snowfall mixed in with weeks of 70 degree days