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Ticking Down the Days

moneypitmike

By moneypitmike,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Not much to discuss - it's warm, period. Just look at this looping motion and balance in the sensible weather and case closed: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-avn.html

When is this going to break?

Frankly I feel that until this coupled synoptic state of having a deep OV low and a strong subtropical Atlantic ridge breaks down, any cold shot would need a S/W come down into the backside of the closed low; it would force it to open up and perhaps lift out. A cold fropa would be more successful during such a pattern transition. If you are a cool weather enthusiast, you'll be happy to note that the 12z runs more or less suggest all that will happen around D4 or so; question is to what magnitude is the cool down? I have noticed a definitive trend to mute the magnitude of cold as extended ranges come into middle, and then on inwards. In fact, our current closed low WSW of us was originally progged to be more a latitudinal trough with its own cool snap - how's that working for us?

Teleconnector: The NAO is interesting at CDC and not so much so at the CPC. The disparate values are because the former uses low level flux anomalies, whereas the latter uses mid and upper level geopotential height anomalies. Usually the two are in sync but occasionally not so between these two agencies - why that is is not entirely certain to me. One would think theoretically they should be in sync every time, because if there is warm heights aloft N, that would induce a low level conserved wind field that is moving S - so both methods should be negative regardless.

As if this discussion couldn't be any more tedious ... it is possible they don't even share precisely the same spatial domain. I know what the CDC's is, but I'm currently battling a bout of 'whogivesa****tatism' too to look up the CPC's and figure this crap out. Why bother when your met opinion doesn't count.

Anyway, that aside, the CDC shows a discerned negative NAO heading closer to the last of the first week of October; the CPC's various GFS ensemble members are graphically up and down, and up and down, around neutral before the usual incoherent mop-ending kicks around D 9 or so... Still, the intuitive (balance of both)/2 = a cooler signal, but not a very strong one at all - more at a weak/moderate cool signal, and one that doesn't begin for a good 7 to 10 days. The NAO is inherently a stochastic teleconnector, more so than the other atmospheric one; so much so that at this time range that is certainly scheduled to change. The PNA at both show a bit of a spike to well over +1SD however, between D3 and 10. This is more pronounced at CPC, but it is evident at both. Nearing October the PNA becomes much more correlated on the pattern than during the JJA period of time. This all means that at least through the 10th of October there is indeed teleconnector support for either a cool shot or repeatingly so, with western N/A ridge and a PNAP pattern of some form or another.

I think in the end it will come down to breaking down this current set up and perhaps the PNA influence is evident in the operational ECM and GFS's idea of opening the closed low.

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HarveyLeonardFan

HarveyLeonardFan

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This has been one of the worst September's I can ever remember. September IMO is the best beach month around here because the water is still warm enough to swim in during the entire month, and usually most days are warm, not humid, and sunny...But this month has been terrible with a bunch of cloudy and abnormally humid days and there have only been a few beach days. Temps today were great but the sun never really came out here.

Kudos to RevKev for pooh-pooing the rain threat last week. Kevin seems to be adopting a more conservative forecasting philosophy.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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This has been one of the worst September's I can ever remember. September IMO is the best beach month around here because the water is still warm enough to swim in during the entire month, and usually most days are warm, not humid, and sunny...But this month has been terrible with a bunch of cloudy and abnormally humid days and there have only been a few beach days. Temps today were great but the sun never really came out here.

Kudos to RevKev for pooh-pooing the rain threat last week. Kevin seems to be adopting a more conservative forecasting philosophy.

laugh.gif Wait until winter.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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Posted

This has been one of the worst September's I can ever remember. September IMO is the best beach month around here because the water is still warm enough to swim in during the entire month, and usually most days are warm, not humid, and sunny...But this month has been terrible with a bunch of cloudy and abnormally humid days and there have only been a few beach days. Temps today were great but the sun never really came out here.

Kudos to RevKev for pooh-pooing the rain threat last week. Kevin seems to be adopting a more conservative forecasting philosophy.

This is part of his game

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NECT

NECT

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There is nothing wrong with the siting of Chester Hill, MPM's (when it is not ravaged by lightning) or mine. I find it amazing that anyone can call this weather uncomfortable. Mild and unremarkable.

Your weather may be great, but can't those of us in the lowlands (i.e. most of SNE) complain that it's too damn warm and humid for late September? :thumbsup:

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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This has been one of the worst September's I can ever remember. September IMO is the best beach month around here because the water is still warm enough to swim in during the entire month, and usually most days are warm, not humid, and sunny...But this month has been terrible with a bunch of cloudy and abnormally humid days and there have only been a few beach days. Temps today were great but the sun never really came out here.

Kudos to RevKev for pooh-pooing the rain threat last week. Kevin seems to be adopting a more conservative forecasting philosophy.

Thanks Harvey..it became very obvious middle of last week that it was going to be nothing more than a 1-2 inch rainstorm..There were no signals of heavy , flooding rains on the models. I was shocked some were so amped up over a catostrophic rain event for us when nothing remotely pointed to that.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

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As far as the forecast goes, certainly appears today will be warm. Certainly the warmest of the three days I've been back from NOLA (Saturday) which were above normal, but short of the mid-summer claims some reportedly experienced.

But, tomorrow will come in cooler and then all this talk of heat/humidity will be but a memory for warministas to cling to as we take a luge ride into a cool regime.

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