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Ticking Down the Days


moneypitmike

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We could take a layer avg of all vertical levels between 500-850mb.

You might get pretty diffuse values if you took a slice that large. What about 600-800mb?

I'm not 100% sure on the first claim..it might work with 850-500, but eventually you get values that are kind of low the larger the slice. Might be a trial and error type thing.

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You might get pretty diffuse values if you took a slice that large. What about 600-800mb?

I'm not 100% sure on the first claim..it might work with 850-500, but eventually you get values that are kind of low the larger the slice. Might be a trial and error type thing.

When I asked Scott he told me his maps are an H5-85 mean. I originally thought they were just H7 and the RH was the layer mean.
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20 mile run this morning. Def a struggle the last 4 or 5 miles but I ripped thru it. Did it in 3:03

Humidity was just brutal. I lost 7 pounds and that was with that taking the running gels and water along the way

Congrats. My run this morning was 8 miles in 1:03. Not quite as far as you. I remember when you were posting about your 3-4 mile runs and your long ones were 6 or 7. :lol:

Another day, same disgusting air mass. 75/70 and its almost October. axesmiley.png

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Tracking a TC genesis over the Bahamas.

Hi res satellite loops show cyclonic motion occurring inside a general region of elongated ow pressure, situated near 28.5N/78W. This region of vorticity has been in the NAM models for awhile as a small entity; it will be interesting to monitor this over the next 24-36 hours. Currently....deep layer steering field argues for interaction with land in the upper MA or NE regions, but most guidance types of non-tropical variety are not indicating much. Still, these things can be fickle and develop - or not - with limited warning.

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Pretty good agreement now with the GFS/GEFS/EC/EC ens for another nice cold shot next weekend. Until then, enjoy the boring.

12z Euro is very cold next weekend. It actually has a secondary cold shot next week after that. Should be interesting to see. October could start off very cold, but the overall longwave pattern supports an average regime in the longer term surrounding that cold period.

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12z Euro is very cold next weekend. It actually has a secondary cold shot next week after that. Should be interesting to see. October could start off very cold, but the overall longwave pattern supports an average regime in the longer term surrounding that cold period.

True the PNA domain...the NAO is ...teetering on finding its way more negative than perhaps currently depicted in operational runs, though. A lot of ensemble members are steeper. Frankly, I'm spooked a little by this repetitive high amplitude PNAP, too -

I still think it could snow in October this time.

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Tracking a TC genesis over the Bahamas.

Hi res satellite loops show cyclonic motion occurring inside a general region of elongated ow pressure, situated near 28.5N/78W. This region of vorticity has been in the NAM models for awhile as a small entity; it will be interesting to monitor this over the next 24-36 hours. Currently....deep layer steering field argues for interaction with land in the upper MA or NE regions, but most guidance types of non-tropical variety are not indicating much. Still, these things can be fickle and develop - or not - with limited warning.

There's definitely a low level swirl on the visible satellite with some convection north and south... but it still seems to be a broad trough of low pressure with a center not really closed off yet.

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Tracking a TC genesis over the Bahamas.

Hi res satellite loops show cyclonic motion occurring inside a general region of elongated ow pressure, situated near 28.5N/78W. This region of vorticity has been in the NAM models for awhile as a small entity; it will be interesting to monitor this over the next 24-36 hours. Currently....deep layer steering field argues for interaction with land in the upper MA or NE regions, but most guidance types of non-tropical variety are not indicating much. Still, these things can be fickle and develop - or not - with limited warning.

Good post Tip. I could see a TS Henri (1985) type of development here... I'd say the 30% prob from NHC is about right

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