dryslot Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 lol I usually love it when I come on in the morning and see the torch/tundra debate going on. What's better is when there's a posts that go back and forth debating the said debating. This just makes me look forward to winter more, although I will have to make due with soggy 70's for a bit longer. 71f and a crap load of humidity right now. Instead of the torch debate we will switch to the snow jackpot one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 23, 2011 Author Share Posted September 23, 2011 Instaed of the torch debate we will switch to the snow jackpot one. Man, the qpf map really has me in the screw zone......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Man, the qpf map really has me in the screw zone......... lol, There is even more whining in the winter threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Man, the qpf map really has me in the screw zone......... Talk about the same old schtick! Hopefully your grass hasn't washed away. Sun is poking my fanny a bit here in Leo-min-stuh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 OVC 72.1/63 Was incredibly muggy and uncomfortable last night in my apartment, and the classroom wasn't exactly crisp either with indoor temperatures around 78F. We only made it down to 62F last night, absolute torch for this time of year. I may need the A/C when I get back to NYC tonight, just a very nasty and unseasonable airmass. Central Park reporting +RA at 71/70 so I hope the drive isn't too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 23, 2011 Author Share Posted September 23, 2011 Talk about the same old schtick! Hopefully your grass hasn't washed away. Sun is poking my fanny a bit here in Leo-min-stuh I have no idea--but I hope you can kick some of that rain out by the time I get in tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Looks like the weekend could turn out beautiful........lets hope so ALLCTTWH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Looks like the weekend could turn out beautiful........lets hope so ALLCTTWH For whom? 80% chance of Rain and T-storms Saturday for where I will be... then fog, and general crappiness. A year ago on this weekend it was a classic New England fall. Highs in the 50s and 60s and overnight lows in the 30s and 40s... I hope I don't die Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 For whom? 80% chance of Rain and T-storms Saturday for where I will be... then fog, and general crappiness. A year ago on this weekend it was a classic New England fall. Highs in the 50s and 60s and overnight lows in the 30s and 40s... I hope I don't die Take a look at the 12z gfs and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 That is an absolute brutal cold airmass on the Euro for the beginning of October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 That is an absolute brutal cold airmass on the Euro for the beginning of October. GFS looks like it brings down some chilly air in the later portions of the run with some nothern stream disturbances as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 That is an absolute brutal cold airmass on the Euro for the beginning of October. Good news. This airmass overhead now is none too pleasant. It's a little better with cloud cover but the sun broke out for a while this afternoon when I was outside on my lunch break and holy smokes was it swamp-nassty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Good news. This airmass overhead now is none too pleasant. It's a little better with cloud cover but the sun broke out for a while this afternoon when I was outside on my lunch break and holy smokes was it swamp-nassty I doubt the Euro is right with the magnitude, but if it actually panned out, a lot of hills would see flakes from that. Regardless, it does seem that most ensemble guidance is trending toward our next cold shot being in early October. The overall longwave pattern though supports above average temps for the next 2-3 weeks despite the possibility of a brief cold shot there. We have a pattern that we won't want to see in winter...lots of low heights in AK and Bering straight region keeping North America mostly warm. Cold air locked up in E Siberia and AK which is just fine for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 OVC 72.1/63 Was incredibly muggy and uncomfortable last night in my apartment, and the classroom wasn't exactly crisp either with indoor temperatures around 78F. We only made it down to 62F last night, absolute torch for this time of year. I may need the A/C when I get back to NYC tonight, just a very nasty and unseasonable airmass. Central Park reporting +RA at 71/70 so I hope the drive isn't too bad. Yeah, +10F for the day up here today... high of 75F and a low of 55F when the normals are 67/43. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 I would have thought after High School and College you'd be used to taking cold showers. LMFAO LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 I doubt the Euro is right with the magnitude, but if it actually panned out, a lot of hills would see flakes from that. Regardless, it does seem that most ensemble guidance is trending toward our next cold shot being in early October. The overall longwave pattern though supports above average temps for the next 2-3 weeks though despite the possibility of a brief cold shot there. We have a pattern that we won't want to see in winter...lots of low heights in AK and Bering straight region keeping North America mostly warm. Cold air locked up in E Siberia and AK which is just fine for this time of year. I want to ski, haha... only need about 3-4" on top of the grassy intermediate slopes. Hopefully something can pan out for early October... CAA with NW flow and residual moisture; doesn't take much to fart a few inches of snow in that 2,500-4,000ft elevation band. Someone please make the cold shot happen, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 I want to ski, haha... only need about 3-4" on top of the grassy intermediate slopes. Hopefully something can pan out for early October... CAA with NW flow and residual moisture; doesn't take much to fart a few inches of snow in that 2,500-4,000ft elevation band. Someone please make the cold shot happen, thanks Euro would get it done with cyclonic flow and printing out 0.20-0.25" of qpf at 534 thicknesses, but its 9 days out so very doubtful its correct. Overall it looks like an above average regime for the foreseeable future, but a nice cold shot would be welcome to break it up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 but if it actually panned out, a lot of hills would see flakes from that. Cold air locked up in E Siberia and AK which is just fine for this time of year. Our first flakes here are almost always in early/mid October and in my amateurish/anecdotal experience, a winter that starts 'too' early ends up fizzling out by February. Or, as the old expression goes: If there's ice in November that will hold a duck, from then on there'll only be slush and muck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 That is an absolute brutal cold airmass on the Euro for the beginning of October. Love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 W/o reading a post.. Now THAT is a NICE COLD SHOT on the Euro today. that would be snow in the higher els of SNE. If that verifies I will get very very nude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 W/o reading a post.. Now THAT is a NICE COLD SHOT on the Euro today. that would be snow in the higher els of SNE. If that verifies I will get very very nude Well, with no hair on your body you would be very very cold.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 W/o reading a post.. Now THAT is a NICE COLD SHOT on the Euro today. that would be snow in the higher els of SNE. If that verifies I will get very very nude Only 7 more days of CTHEAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Any mets/members have any requests for specific model maps that we can produce with our WRF model for the fall/winter?I'd probably save the severe stuff (aside from CAPE, CIN, etc.) for next Mar/Apr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Any mets/members have any requests for specific model maps that we can produce with our WRF model for the fall/winter?I'd probably save the severe stuff (aside from CAPE, CIN, etc.) for next Mar/Apr. EPV would be useful in winter storms. Its hard to get good EPV maps outside of AWIPS or fake AWIPS programs. ML (centered near 700mb) frontogenesis is good too. Best banding in winter storms is almost always where ML fronto and lowest EPV overlap. I'm sure theres more I can think of. Maybe some of the critical thickness maps...soundings are always best for point locations, but when looking at a map for a more larger perspective, the thickness maps can come in handy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Only 7 more days of CTHEAT. I don't want the heat in the fall like i do in the summer..but when it's all you've got..you've got to talk about it and enjoy it cuz it's all you've got Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Euro would be awesome!! Ill be in the eastern townships of Quebec its pretty awesome thinking that i could see snow within the next couple of weeks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 EPV would be useful in winter storms. Its hard to get good EPV maps outside of AWIPS or fake AWIPS programs. ML (centered near 700mb) frontogenesis is good too. Best banding in winter storms is almost always where ML fronto and lowest EPV overlap. I'm sure theres more I can think of. Maybe some of the critical thickness maps...soundings are always best for point locations, but when looking at a map for a more larger perspective, the thickness maps can come in handy. I was thinking about that also. Cory is already going to try to script those H5-H85 RH/omega w/ critical thicknesses maps that Scott likes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 I was thinking about that also. Cory is already going to try to script those H5-H85 RH/omega w/ critical thicknesses maps that Scott likes. Yes those are very nice. Would the omega on those maps be 700mb omega? (I'd assume so). The EPV/ML fronto maps would be very nice to have in coastal storms. Even in little clipper/redevelopers they can have use...you'll get an area of lowered EPV (even if not negative) and some ML fronto and it can hint at a 2-4 fluff storm turning into a warning criteria event like we saw last Jan 21st. It can tell you if the qpf is on steroids or if it actually has some merit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Would the omega on those maps be 700mb omega? (I'd assume so). We could take a layer avg of all vertical levels between 500-850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 W/o reading a post.. Now THAT is a NICE COLD SHOT on the Euro today. that would be snow in the higher els of SNE. If that verifies I will get very very nude Recurves FTW. It's getting closer every day. Equinox beer to celebrate tonight. The most interesting man in the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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