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Ticking Down the Days


moneypitmike

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ORH was at -0.1F before today for the month...

A little uptick ahead and then we will see

3/4 of the way through the month. By now I'd have thought they'd be sittinn' at +4.7 the way certain people were calling September a scorcher. Time is running out for those erroneous predictions.

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I see nothing but cold from here on out........68/62 time to put a log on the fire. Rest of this week looks really chilly for this time of year, this weekend too :thumbsup:

The forecast here certainly isn't looking like there is any mega-torch on the way to reverse the downward spiral. The month probably end AOB normal. We knew that though.

fcst.jpg

Tonight: Patchy fog after 2am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Wednesday: A chance of showers, mainly after 4pm. Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 68. Calm wind becoming south between 4 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Wednesday Night: Showers likely, mainly after 10pm. Patchy fog. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 59. Light south wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Thursday: Showers likely, with thunderstorms also possible after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 73. Southwest wind between 3 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Thursday Night: A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 58. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Friday: A chance of showers before 9am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 9am and 11am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 11am. Cloudy, with a high near 67. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Friday Night: Showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 58. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Saturday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 72.

Sunday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 69. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Monday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tuesday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 66. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

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3/4 of the way through the month. By now I'd have thought they'd be sittinn' at +4.7 the way certain people were calling September a scorcher. Time is running out for those erroneous predictions.

Dude, most people said AOA. Guees what? That's where it will end up. So, yes, the rest of this week will probably be +10 for you some days. 73/60 is very warm this time of year.

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Dude, most people said AOA. Guees what? That's where it will end up. So, yes, the rest of this week will probably be +10 for you some days. 73/60 is very warm this time of year.

First mistake, following what most people say. We're 3/4 of the way through the month and what's verified so far is a -0.1 at your far Eastern Mass location. So, as of this moment, there is no evidence to support a large + departure for the month. Is it possible the month ends +, sure, but it will be a negligible departure if it happens at all. No wild torches. Coastalwx, whose opinion I hold in great regard said at the beginning of the month he thought it would end up + but by how much was the question. I'm saying "not much". You seem awfully worked up over this, are you drinking to many sugary drinks? Kids your age can really be negatively impacted by a poor diet.

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First mistake, following what most people say. We're 3/4 of the way through the month and what's verified so far is a -0.1 at your far Eastern Mass location. So, as of this moment, there is no evidence to support a large + departure for the month. Is it possible the month ends +, sure, but it will be a negligible departure if it happens at all. No wild torches. Coastalwx, whose opinion I hold in great

regard said at the beginning of the month he thought it

would end up + but by how much was the question. I'm saying "not much". You seem awfully worked up over this, are you drinking to many sugary drinks? Kids your age can

really be negatively impacted by a poor diet.

Thanks for making my point. :lol: No one said it would be an all out scorcher. But it will end up AOA as Will, Scott, Kevin and many others thought. Your below normal call FTL.

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Thanks for making my point. no on :lol:e said it would be an all out scorcher. But it will end up AOA as Will, Scott, Kevin and many others thought. Your below normal call FTL.

Really? Not reading some of the early month posts about a +4-+5 month I guess. Time will tell junior. Go to bed, it's a school night.

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How do you figure +10? Is Pete's avg temp this time of year 56? I think ORH is 60F, so maybe...

In MA at locations above let's say 1200 feet which covers seven co-op sites, for tomorrow, the average high/low/mean is 67.4/44.7/56.1. Adjusting for his cooler backyard bias relative to the stations he has said are warmer, his normals are probably around 65/43/54 give or take a degree. So a 72/55 day would be close to a +10 departure. ORH's average for tomorrow is 59.3.

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Really? Not reading some of the early month posts about a +4-+5 month I guess.

I'd never forecast a departure that high unless there was some really huge signal pointing to an all out torch. These are very rough back of the napkin calculations, but a monthly departure of +4 or more occurs about 6.7% of the time, and +5 or more 3.5% of the time. Note that these numbers are not necessarily return periods, but long term number of occurrences from ORH, BDL, PVD, and BOS across their station histories adjusted for the 1981-2010 normals.

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Just a hideous looking Euro all the way thru day 10..no signs of autumn or col air anywhere. GOA looks awful..Anything that signals warmth is all over the Euro

Meh, it's not a complete torch. Next week may be cool and wet.

Nothing like waking up at 4:30am and seeing how your team did a back alley style abortion of a loss.

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BOS/PVD/ORH are negative on the month now after that cool shot. BDL still slightly positive.

All stations should finish September positive. This went with my thinking before the cold shot as well...that warmth would likely return for a time and it could last into October as well. A flip to colder weather would be ideal at some point in October as its usually a positive sign to see it finish below average, but as last year showed us, its certainly not a requirement for a cold/snowy winter.

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BOS/PVD/ORH are negative on the month now after that cool shot. BDL still slightly positive.

All stations should finish September positive. This went with my thinking before the cold shot as well...that warmth would likely return for a time and it could last into October as well. A flip to colder weather would be ideal at some point in October as its usually a positive sign to see it finish below average, but as last year showed us, its certainly not a requirement for a cold/snowy winter.

I think the beginning of October could be mild as well. Even the weeklies indicate this. There might be a cool shot near the first of the month...give or take a couple of days, but it doesn't look like a cool pattern just yet.

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I think the beginning of October could be mild as well. Even the weeklies indicate this. There might be a cool shot near the first of the month...give or take a couple of days, but it doesn't look like a cool pattern just yet.

Yeah I agree. Euro ensembles actually tried to get it pretty chilly by the end of the first week of Oct, but as is often the case, it might be rushing it at this stage. GFS ensembles looked warmer.

The larger scale wavelengths really begin to lengthen in the month of October, so that will probably be the first signs of any type of pattern trying to establish itself. The last few years, the Oct pattern hasn't actually been terribly different than the early winter pattern despite historically seeing some inverse correlation....at least on the ATL side. Last year the PAC was more like a Nino in October.

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FAIR

75/61

Today will be the first large positive departure. Temperatures warming quickly, although my thermometer may be a bit too exposed to the sun. It's on the north side of the building, but I still think it may be running warm since Jaffrey was only at 66/58 fifteen minutes ago. Definitely feels mild out though. 06z GFS looks mild through 144, after which the cold pool finally moves overhead, but not before we've racked up another series of nights in the 60s. NWS doesn't have a single night below 60F until Sunday, which is supposed to be mid 50s.

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