powderfreak Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 All due respect, honestly. Weather forecasting = conjecture. Good forecasters have lots of data, knowledge, and experience to back up the conjecture to the point that conjecture is pretty reliable, but nevertheless... And as you know all too well, most SNE forecasts do not reflect what happens at your elevation. In other words, what happens at 2K, stays at 2K. The rest of us will be warmer. But the departures from normal will be just about the same... up here our departures from normal at the Mansfield co-op at 4,000ft usually are in the same ballpark as the departures down at 1,000ft and lower. BTV will average 15-20F warmer than 15 miles east on Mansfield, but the departures from normal will be within a degree of each other. If its above normal in the lower elevations below 1,000ft, then it'll be above normal at the highest too. I should say that is given you assume normal lapse rates of 3-5F/1000ft in elevation (though often in GC it runs more like 6-8F/1000ft) . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Just an awful 10 days of wx upcoming if you wanted cool, fall-like w.x.. Nothing but much above normal and humid condistions with bouts of showers..making a bad foliage season even worse. No signs of cool anywhere thru day 10 as Canada is torched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 That cutoff ULL stalls over the Great Lakes until next Tue/Wed on the models. At least Kevin gets his warm, moist, wet flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Just an awful 10 days of wx upcoming if you wanted cool, fall-like w.x.. Nothing but much above normal and humid condistions with bouts of showers..making a bad foliage season even worse. No signs of cool anywhere thru day 10 as Canada is torched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 SW flow is locking in early. Looks like a latitude gradient winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Look at the Euro and how warm Canada is .Cool air is gone. You could argue it's reloading day 10 I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Look at the Euro and how warm Canada is .Cool air is gone. You could argue it's reloading day 10 I guess Yeah it will be soupy later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Low of 47 overnight...ramping up though...50.1/48 attm More soup is not wanted here. I had enjoyed the brief visit to autumn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Yeah it will be soupy later this week. MRG will argue it won't be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 MRG will argue it won't be Deep srly flow with 570+ thicknesses....no question it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 GFS took the KING to the woodshed in this upcoming pattern starting mid to late week. .......hmmmmmmmmmm October Oven? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 GFS took the KING to the woodshed in this upcoming pattern starting mid to late week. .......hmmmmmmmmmm October Oven? That's why we have ensembles. They were never as bullish, but also the GFS wavered too. I don't use op models beyond 7 days, exceot for entertainment purposes. In fact, I think the euro first showed this cutoff potential a week ago. In any case, I'll be in NYC Friday through Sunday so hoping the game doesn't get rained out. It's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 That's why we have ensembles. They were never as bullish, but also the GFS wavered too. I don't use op models beyond 7 days, exceot for entertainment purposes. In fact, I think the euro first showed this cutoff potential a week ago. In any case, I'll be in NYC Friday through Sunday so hoping the game doesn't get rained out. It's possible. GFS ens were pretty steadfast, where are you staying in the city? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 MRG will argue it won't be Meanwhile, in Realityville, yet another cool cloudy, rainy day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 GFS ens were pretty steadfast, where are you staying in the city? Somewhere near Times Square...I forget the name of the place. Nothing fancy by any means, but I know it's right near there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 54/50 light rain. I would love to have a 5 day stretch of dry weather. It's been many weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Another classic sat pic, imagine a cane off the se coast and the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Another classic sat pic, imagine a cane off the se coast and the potential. Perfect ULL setup coming, rogue, hybrid in the cards? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 50s. Drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 54/50 light rain. I would love to have a 5 day stretch of dry weather. It's been many weeks. It was dry the entire week after Irene here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Perfect ULL setup coming, rogue, hybrid in the cards? Models were hinting at it earlier, have not checked lately, but anything down south will be picked up in that flow, tropical conveyer belt on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 50s. Drizzle. Summer! Same here 59 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 What a waste of a nicely placed ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Models were hinting at it earlier, have not checked lately, but anything down south will be picked up in that flow, tropical conveyer belt on the way Not for nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 SW flow is locking in early. Looks like a latitude gradient winter. 2007-08 redux.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 GFS took the KING to the woodshed in this upcoming pattern starting mid to late week. .......hmmmmmmmmmm October Oven? Sunny breaks though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Best to get warmth out of the way in October no? I would love to avoid the soupy weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Anyone here semi-knowledgeable with PBASIC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Beautiful sunset tonight as clouds are clearing out just in time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Atmosphere rapidly warming now.... OVC 61/58 SW@3mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.