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Ticking Down the Days


moneypitmike

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Good frost even here at 2k. Presently waiting for the roof deck to burn off. To slick to get up there right now.

It was 38° at my place this morning but I'm up on a hill. Down the hill I noticed frost on the rooftops but there was none in the CT River Valley. Temps radiated well last night....some spots were even colder than they were on

Great Indian "summer" weather coming up. As "warm" as Wednesday might be, the sun just isn't as strong this time of year.

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Gonna be a warm week, that's for sure. mid to upper 70's.

Low to mid 70s here Weds-Friday, unless NWS updates to match Kevin and Joe's torch...

As long as it clears by Saturday...

ORH is at +0.3F for the month thru yesterday.

BOS +0.1

PVD -0.1

BDL +1.1

Month will end positive in SNE ('cept Pete of course)

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Low to mid 70s here Weds-Friday, unless NWS updates to match Kevin and Joe's torch...

As long as it clears by Saturday...

ORH is at +0.3F for the month thru yesterday.

BOS +0.1

PVD -0.1

BDL +1.1

Month will end positive in SNE ('cept Pete of course)

It's all relative to where u live. 77F, 75F, 77F W,T,F. Lows will be in the mid 60's.

That's above normal for me.

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For what?

feet and feet of snow Snowman.gif

haha, but really, model guidance is getting a little suggestive. Ridge out west builds, s/w dives down into the GL region, and phases with the cutoff low over the Ohio Valley. Most guidance at this point has a delayed bomb (or none at all), which would bring back some cold air, but not much else. A slight alternative to that solution would be the s/w diving further south, phasing earlier, and a rapidly deepening storm over Cape Cod and the Gulf of Maine that could wrap around moisture into the Canadian air dumping into New England.

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It was 38° at my place this morning but I'm up on a hill. Down the hill I noticed frost on the rooftops but there was none in the CT River Valley. Temps radiated well last night....some spots were even colder than they were on

Great Indian "summer" weather coming up. As "warm" as Wednesday might be, the sun just isn't as strong this time of year.

Great to see frost covered fields again. I was impressed that both hill and dale were showing areas with frost.

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feet and feet of snow Snowman.gif

haha, but really, model guidance is getting a little suggestive. Ridge out west builds, s/w dives down into the GL region, and phases with the cutoff low over the Ohio Valley. Most guidance at this point has a delayed bomb (or none at all), which would bring back some cold air, but not much else. A slight alternative to that solution would be the s/w diving further south, phasing earlier, and a rapidly deepening storm over Cape Cod and the Gulf of Maine that could wrap around moisture into the Canadian air dumping into New England.

Getting that track established early. Nice.lol

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Low to mid 70s here Weds-Friday, unless NWS updates to match Kevin and Joe's torch...

As long as it clears by Saturday...

ORH is at +0.3F for the month thru yesterday.

BOS +0.1

PVD -0.1

BDL +1.1

Month will end positive in SNE ('cept Pete of course)

Not the torch some predicted. I wouldn't bet on it being positive by month's end. If it does come in positive it will be barely worth noting.

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Not the torch some predicted. I wouldn't bet on it being positive by month's end. If it does come in positive it will be barely worth noting.

I'll bet all the stations finish at least +1F...places further south like BDL might finish closer to +2. Warm nights ahead of that stalled front will tack on some +10 minimum departures, if not more.

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Conjecture.

All due respect, honestly. Weather forecasting = conjecture. Good forecasters have lots of data, knowledge, and experience to back up the conjecture to the point that conjecture is pretty reliable, but nevertheless...

And as you know all too well, most SNE forecasts do not reflect what happens at your elevation.

In other words, what happens at 2K, stays at 2K. The rest of us will be warmer.

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All due respect, honestly. Weather forecasting = conjecture. Good forecasters have lots of data, knowledge, and experience to back up the conjecture to the point that conjecture is pretty reliable, but nevertheless...

And as you know all too well, most SNE forecasts do not reflect what happens at your elevation.

In other words, what happens at 2K, stays at 2K. The rest of us will be warmer.

This is his forecast from BOX: W Chesterfield MA, 42.44N 72.88W Elev 1335ft

WED: 51/74

THU: 59/75

FRI: 59/68

SAT: 55/65

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=42.4275113263909&lon=-72.87025451660156&site=box&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text

That's pretty warm - on the order of +10 to +15. It hurts GC more in humid conditions because the drop off in temperature with elevation is much lower so for every thousand feet it's only 3-4 degrees cooler. A 78/62 day at BDL, while warm, wouldn't even clock in as a +10 day, while a 73/57 type day in GC is probably around +12.

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