HoarfrostHubb Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 Because the height gradient in the upper levels (the jet stream for layman's terms) is down in the CONUS...height gradient means temp gradient too...so you have extreme temp gradients in winter. You ends up on either side for a 2 week period and you can build up some massive departures. The gradient is extremely weak in summer and further north...so you do not see as large departures for a month. Ahhh... i thought it was more of a physics issue with being easier heat and cool relatively drier air or something. Your version makes more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 40/38, calm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 48/44 The next week looks like nice late Sept temps. Depending on how overcast mid week is I'll guess our p/c forecast temps will even bust + a degree or two. I'm looking forward to some seasonable and dry weather. Hoping the showers for the most part miss us this week, we've had enough moisture out here. People with allergies must be getting smacked by the mold and fungus spores because even my eyes have been itchy. Ragweed seems epic the last few weeks. Mushroom have been numerous, large, and in unreal varieties...saw 10" toadstools when i took my dog and daughter for a walk today. She looked for fairies under them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 Thanks Will, certainly some of my jubilance was directed towards my friend in West Chesterfield , its made some of the boring days of summer more fun. Obviously it was warm, and chilly the last couple days, in the end I think orh pvd end up around +1, and bos and bdl closer to +2 for the month when all is said and done, which pretty much fits the last couple months............warm, nothing crazy. You are in full back peddle mode. The +4 or greater you touted for September is a pipe dream. The Jets play like girls. (no offense to girls) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 Ragweed seems epic the last few weeks. Mushroom have been numerous, large, and in unreal varieties...saw 10" toadstools when i took my dog and daughter for a walk today. She looked for fairies under them You have to eat them to see fairies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 Lol... did not mean the actual sequence. I meant having 4 in a row of, say, -7 or colder. Yesterday was -10, today prob -9... the other 2 were guesses... Like how did you determine -15 happen once every 10 years? I took the 1981-2010 normals, calculated the departures over the 1981-2010 daily temperatures in September at ORH, and there were four such days that had departures of negative 15 degrees and greater. These dates are: 9/17/1990, 9/18/1990, 9/30/1992, and 9/20/1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 40/38, calm I feel like we're going to see a few months of seasonable or just above before the winter god's hammer falls out here. Good for working outdoors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 You are in full back peddle mode. The +4 or greater you touted for September is a pipe dream. The Jets play like girls. (no offense to girls) +4?? Suckers bet. That departure for an entire month is pretty rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 I feel like we're going to see a few months of seasonable or just above before the winter god's hammer falls out here. Good for working outdoors. Steady step down with the general flavor being slightly cooler than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 +4?? Suckers bet. That departure for an entire month is pretty rare. He and Blizz whipped each other up and both had visions of day after day of sizzling heat. Sad to see friends make poor choices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 I took the 1981-2010 normals, calculated the departures over the 1981-2010 daily temperatures in September at ORH, and there were four such days that had departures of negative 15 degrees and greater. These dates are: 9/17/1990, 9/18/1990, 9/30/1992, and 9/20/1993. QED... Early 90's ftw! 2 cold days in 1990 to be sure. Thanks for the help. You are very talented stats-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 He and Blizz whipped each other up and both had visions of day after day of sizzling heat. Sad to see friends make poor choices. I'd bet against a +/-4 any day especially when we're talking about an entire month. I mean, this isn't the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 I took the 1981-2010 normals, calculated the departures over the 1981-2010 daily temperatures in September at ORH, and there were four such days that had departures of negative 15 degrees and greater. These dates are: 9/17/1990, 9/18/1990, 9/30/1992, and 9/20/1993. Great day that was. First and only snowflakes "officially" recorded at ORH in September. I was outside that day and we had these fat mangled flakes falling at like 39-40F or something. It was a shower that came through and briefly got heavy and thats when we saw the flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 Steady step down with the general flavor being slightly cooler than normal. I always look forward to the first reports of measurable from Mt Mansfield. That's when I know winter is on it's way. Guess there was a little frosting up on Mt. Washington yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 I always look forward to the first reports of measurable from Mt Mansfield. That's when I know winter is on it's way. Guess there was a little frosting up on Mt. Washington yesterday. Several of the peaks saw some snow yesterday. Cannon mountain too. A pic from there is in the NNE thread. It looks like they got measurable too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 Great day that was. First and only snowflakes "officially" recorded at ORH in September. I was outside that day and we had these fat mangled flakes falling at like 39-40F or something. It was a shower that came through and briefly got heavy and thats when we saw the flakes. Lucky bastard. I'd give my first born for flakes in Sept. or Oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 I'd bet against a +/-4 any day especially when we're talking about an entire month. I mean, this isn't the Plains. Well, it does happen, Dec 2006 BOS was +6.2, I seem to remember someone (Will? You?) posting about a +10 month in SNE... But yeah, few and far between... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 Lucky bastard. I'd give my first born for flakes in Sept. or Oct. Pete gets those in June and July... We got snow twice in Oct 2009... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 Several of the peaks saw some snow yesterday. Cannon mountain too. A pic from there is in the NNE thread. It looks like they got measurable too. MWN looked like it got some pretty good snow on their webcam earlier today... maybe 2 inches? It says 0.8" in last 24 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 He and Blizz whipped each other up and both had visions of day after day of sizzling heat. Sad to see friends make poor choices. Pete I have seen the light......it was a cool summer, and has been a chilly September so far, I give up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 Lucky bastard. I'd give my first born for flakes in Sept. or Oct. Never seen snow there in October? I know 1987 gave BDR half an inch. But not sure if you remember that. Also Oct 8, 1988 gave snow flakes to a lot of people. We usually get flakes here in October about 55-60% of the years (28 times since 1960)...measurable about 20% of the years. (11 in the last 50 years) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 Pete I have seen the light......it was a cool summer, and has been a chilly September so far, I give up. You should add Will as your fourth for golf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 Well, it does happen, Dec 2006 BOS was +6.2, I seem to remember someone (Will? You?) posting about a +10 month in SNE... But yeah, few and far between... December 1989 was -13 at ORH for the monthly departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 You should add Will as your fourth for golf That would be awesome, at least Will would have a beer with me after golf.,Pete and Cheetah will have a perrier and wrap, discussing Rush Limbaughs best moments! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 December 1989 was -13 at ORH for the monthly departure. Jeez... that is insane...I would be screwed this winter on my oil bill if that were to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 Well, it does happen, Dec 2006 BOS was +6.2, I seem to remember someone (Will? You?) posting about a +10 month in SNE... But yeah, few and far between... Over the last 30-year normals period there have been 275 station-months where BDL, ORH, BOS, or PVD had a four degree or greater departure for the month. That's a lot more than I would have expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 Jeez... that is insane...I would be screwed this winter on my oil bill if that were to happen. We had an oil tank back then and we ran out of oil shortly before christmas and had to be in the house 2 days before they came and refilled the tank. It was absolutely freezing. Not a ton of snow that month, but it was a white christmas...we got 6" on the 16th that never melted. Turned warm right around New Years and the rest of the winter was an epic torch that was so bad, that it completely wiped out -13F departure in December and then made the winter positive. That's almost impossible to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 Over the last 30-year normals period there have been 275 station-months where BDL, ORH, BOS, or PVD had a four degree or greater departure for the month. That's a lot more than I would have expected. A huge percentage of them will be in winter I'd guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 We had an oil tank back then and we ran out of oil shortly before christmas and had to be in the house 2 days before they came and refilled the tank. It was absolutely freezing. Not a ton of snow that month, but it was a white christmas...we got 6" on the 16th that never melted. Turned warm right around New Years and the rest of the winter was an epic torch that was so bad, that it completely wiped out -13F departure in December and then made the winter positive. That's almost impossible to do. Neat writeup from BTV about the Cold Wave... http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/events/Dec1989/ Nice warmup on New Year's Eve, lol... I vaguely remember that winter. Lived in an apartment in Lowell that I did not have to pay a heating bill... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 That would be awesome, at least Will would have a beer with me after golf.,Pete and Cheetah will have a perrier and wrap, discussing Rush Limbaughs best moments! I think Rush is a sick pill freak. I only listen on a rare occasion for comedic purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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