12z Model Thread 12/8

[ptb127]

I'm on an iPhone..... I can't really see the models. What does it look like for I-81 corridor in PA?

[eduggs]

I consider something like the 12z Euro or even the GGEM to be the most likely outcome. We're really going to need some luck with the orientation of the Canadian vortex to keep the developing mid continent storm from really pumping up heights up through Ontario/Quebec. With such a strong thermal gradient and plenty of jet energy barreling into the trof, this thing just wants to sharpen and strengthen. And there's nothing to push back against it.

[SnowGoose69]

That secondary vort below the main PV in Canada clearly visible from 72 hours over northern ALB/SASK and then 96 over International Falls is suspicious if you ask me...that may be what is causing the early major phase.

[Sundog]

That secondary vort below the main PV in Canada clearly visible from 72 hours over northern ALB/SASK and then 96 over International Falls is suspicious if you ask me...that may be what is causing the early major phase.

So basically that vortex is creating a bridge for the two pieces of energy to connect much earlier than they would have? Funny how it just at the right place at the right time to link up the two.

[Alpha5]

So basically that vortex is creating a bridge for the two pieces of energy to connect much earlier than they would have? Funny how it just at the right place at the right time to link up the two.

Yeah it looks like that, funny how the euro has been on this solution for a while (besides the 0z)

[tombo82685]

I'm on an iPhone..... I can't really see the models. What does it look like for I-81 corridor in PA?

you are rain like the rest of the northeast, phases way to early and plus stronger s/w coming out of the rockies

[tombo82685]

the region does get some lgt snow showers from the retrograding low at hr 174 east of maine, northern parts of the region have the best shot

[NJwinter23]

That secondary vort below the main PV in Canada clearly visible from 72 hours over northern ALB/SASK and then 96 over International Falls is suspicious if you ask me...that may be what is causing the early major phase.

I only have the low resolution penn state maps for vorticity with the euro, but I was noticing that piece as well. It doesnt look like a feature that exists on the gfs?

[LetItSnowInPhilly]

GGEM is pretty far west too. And if one model can be on it's own and be right, it's the euro.

I'd take the GGEM lightly when it shows a storm west...it has major issues with turning troughs negative too quickly.

[tombo82685]

at the end of the euro run it has a sub 1004 low over eastern tenn, looks like it would cut than redevelop on the coast or what not, still a good block in place

[NortheastPAWx]

I'd take the GGEM lightly when it shows a storm west...it has major issues with turning troughs negative too quickly.

But it's supported by the EURO.

[tombo82685]

here is the 12z ukie map wise with a 980 low over cap may

[Harbourton]

Just as a heads up (not sure if this has been posted), PSU Ewall has 240 hr ECFW now.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/rtwx/ewall/ECMWF0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html

[ag3]

Just for the sakes of it...Here is the 12z JMA. This came way east. Its previous runs had the low west of lakes:

[cleetussnow]

Normally I would discount the Ukie vs. the Euro, and as much as I hate the Euro depiction I think it is closer, except the Ukie was great last year all winter.

I don't know what to think since the 12z models all have different solutions.

[SnowGoose69]

so lets see...it's the gfs/ukie vs ggem/euro. hmmmm...going to go with the ggem/euro here

I normally would trust the Euro but its inconsistency the las 2 runs while every other model seemed to move east makes me have to hold off a bit longer...my initial guess was no secondary with the primary just cutting over PIT/BUF....perhaps I should have stuck with that idea but I'm not convinced yet.

[benfica356]

for comparison purposes (all 12z)

UKMET VS EURO

http://meteocentre.c...hh2=120&fixhh=1

http://meteocentre.c...fixhh=1〈=en

UKMET VS GFS

http://meteocentre.c...fixhh=1〈=en

http://meteocentre.c...hh2=096&fixhh=1

UKMET VS NAM

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&hh=072&comp=2&run2=12&mod2=nam&stn2=PNM&hh2=084&fixhh=1

GFS VS NAM

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod2=nam&run2=12&stn2=PNM&hh2=084〈=en&map=na&stn=PNM&run=12&mod=gfs&hh=084&comp=2&fixhh=1〈=en

[Manny]

Mixed signals, encouraging and discouraging, right now the big cities should hope for a continued depiction of some back-end snows, as the low tracks north, but that's only if it comes east like the GFS. We're still 96+ hours out, so tonight is important in seeing whether the 12z Euro has some credence, or the 12z GFS.

[Rtd208]

I would certainly like to see the 12z Euro ensembles to see if they are further east then the OP run.

[SnowGoose69]

Once again it could come down to when the responsible vort comes ashore or close to the Pac NW Coast...this is still 40-50 hours out...we could see model agreement and or a major shift one way or the other after that.

[eduggs]

When the UK is an outlier with deepening mid-level cyclones, it's usually wrong (this is true on its face for any model projection, but esp the UK). I feel like the 12z GFS is the best case scenario and somewhere between there and the Euro is what we'll get. Mega blocking cutoff with bitter cold and occasional snow showers is what we have in store after cold rain.

Ensembles show plenty of spread to keep interest fortunately.

[jrodd321]

That's a pretty big jump on the JMA. It had it going to like Milwaukee yesterday haha.

[Quakertown needs snow]

gfs 12z abe, for now

[hudsonvalley21]

Just for the sakes of it...Here is the 12z JMA. This came way east. Its previous runs had the low west of lakes:

Was it the JMA that had the heavy snow event for the metro area feb 25th 2010 from early on?

[SnowGoose69]

Was it the JMA that had the heavy snow event for the metro area feb 25th 2010 from early on?

It had the 12.19.09 event right along with the UKMET, I know that.

[hudsonvalley21]

I know it was one of them that it had and the other models started to follow around 4 days out from the event.

[Alpha5]

It had the 12.19.09 event right along with the UKMET, I know that.

The NAM had it too....the Euro was OTS till about 50 hrs or something insane like that

[SnowGoose69]

The NAM had it too....the Euro was OTS till about 50 hrs or something insane like that

The Euro historically seems to have had trouble with big winter weather events in December for some reason.

[Alpha5]

The Euro historically seems to have had trouble with big winter weather events in December for some reason.

Odd, guess even the best of us have our flaws

[ag3]

If I remember correctly, the Euro showed the 12/19 storm first in the 156 hour range and then lost it, squashing to our south.

It bough it back north during its 12z run on 12/17.

NAM had it from 84 hours out and never waivered. Same with UKMET.