12z Model Thread 12/8

[tombo82685]

here is the 12z gfs snowfall map from earl barkers model page. Looks like the northern and western burfs og phl do well, with phl getting about 2 inches or so

[Sampson]

back to the rich getting richer...syracuse has recorded a 4 day total of 56.2 in and its still snowing, with 6-10 expected today and another 6-10 tn. I was there 4 years and have been following there weather since I graduated and this is something I've never seen before. This is already roughly half of their seasonal avg (115in). Pretty incredible

TWC just reported that it snowed for 95 hours and 10 minutes straight before taking a break for 30 minutes. Then the snowfall started up again. Insane.

[tombo82685]

here are the 12z indiv ens runs a lot of eye candy in these runs, still shows things can change for the better or the worse. T0 my count it looks like 7 or 8 of the tracks bring some snow to the region

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_12z/ensprsloopmref.html

[mattinpa]

Yep, looks like 2-4" for the Philly suburbs based on this run. I will be happy to get just an inch or two for the holiday spirit.

[Riptide]

Yep, looks like 2-4" for the Philly suburbs based on this run. I will be happy to get just an inch or two for the holiday spirit.

Indeed, there will probably be another storm threat before Christmas aswell.

[A-L-E-X]

TWC just reported that it snowed for 95 hours and 10 minutes straight before taking a break for 30 minutes.  Then the snowfall started up again.  Insane.

I came to the conclusion a long time ago that if we want a sure thing in terms of snowfall and snowcover under all indicies and no matter what the climate-- we need to move to the lakes region of upstate NY.  Either the towns south of Buffalo or around Syracuse or Watertown-- that way youre guaranteed to always have snow-- even when the rest of the region is under an area of high pressure, cold and dry-- they will always have snow on the ground or falling, thanks to lake effect.

[earthlight]

here are the 12z indiv ens runs a lot of eye candy in these runs, still shows things can change for the better or the worse. T0 my count it looks like 7 or 8 of the tracks bring some snow to the region

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_12z/ensprsloopmref.html

Some of those are very impressive. It's def. interesting to see this transforming signal amongst guidance. It seems like a handful of those are partially phasing, while another few are redeveloping a secondary on the front and moving it northwest. There are still a few way inland as well.

[Alpha5]

Some of those are very impressive. It's def. interesting to see this transforming signal amongst guidance. It seems like a handful of those are partially phasing, while another few are redeveloping a secondary on the front and moving it northwest. There are still a few way inland as well.

Quite the spread indeed...I think the models are having some difficulty handling the left behind energy near the SC coast

[CarolineWx]

At this time i think the apps track is more likely but if the Low does not phase tell it gets to the coast then a lot of people may end up happy along the east coast but that is a long shot i think in the pattern we are in, but i am not ruling it out right know.

[Alpha5]

euro coming out now, trended east big time last run.

[Stormlover74]

While I'm certainly not putting stock into the long range GFS, it pretty much has cold and bone dry through the 24th after the rainstorm on the 12th-13th

Indeed, there will probably be another storm threat before Christmas aswell.

[tombo82685]

the euro pbp is in the gen forum area...

[NortheastPAWx]

Yikes oh yikes...crazy situation setting up for Finals week. Several inches of snow followed by bitter cold? Wow.

[ag3]

Alpha,

Do a play by play for our region here.

[Boreal]

here is the gfs ens mean, looks like its the same as 6z maybe a little further east

hr 120 shows quite a significant amount of precip. for an ensemble 5 days out.

[Alpha5]

Alpha,

Do a play by play for our region here.

when the storm gets into our timeframe...

[ag3]

when the storm gets into our timeframe...

OK. Cool.

[earthlight]

Only out to 42 hours, no major changes.

[NJwinter23]

For its limited worth, this run of the GFS gives RUTG 1.00" of rain followed by 0.6" of snow accumulation.

Jake,

I just looked over bufkit and it only had a few hundredths of an inch snow after the changeover for Rutgers (.04") and the area.

[Alpha5]

Euro looks like it wants to come west

[earthlight]

Not looking too hot at H5 66hr from what I can see (iPhone)

[Alpha5]

Hr 78 primar low over Missouri, PV right to the north. Looks like it wants to cut earlier than 0z

[Sampson]

I came to the conclusion a long time ago that if we want a sure thing in terms of snowfall and snowcover under all indicies and no matter what the climate-- we need to move to the lakes region of upstate NY. Either the towns south of Buffalo or around Syracuse or Watertown-- that way youre guaranteed to always have snow-- even when the rest of the region is under an area of high pressure, cold and dry-- they will always have snow on the ground or falling, thanks to lake effect.

I would strongly agree if there were some serviceable mountains up in that area (watertown/Buffalo). I would prefer somewhere around Lake Placid or central/northern Vt where they benefit a bit from the lake effect and still cash in on some of the coastals. Either way, I wish I was in any one of those places right now.

[Alpha5]

ugly

[easternsnowman]

ugly

euro is always ugly!

[SnoSki14]

And probably wrong, there is some blocking in place that would favor a track further SE like the gfs showed.

I doubt it phases with the PV so quickly, models had trended with pulling the PV further north. There is also no SE ridge in place which would favor the storm going further east.

[supermeh]

The EURO is the only model way west at this point.

[Alpha5]

50/50 is screwed up on this run, big difference from the 0z euro run, ridge can build in as a result of the 50/50 being further s/e

[ag3]

The EURO is the only model way west at this point.

GGEM is pretty far west too. And if one model can be on it's own and be right, it's the euro.

[NJwinter23]

it phases/interacts with further north energy associated with the polar vortex very early. Way nw of the gfs. Euro has definitely waffled around on its last 3 runs, I sense it will be further east then this in the end, but maybe not as far east as the 12z gfs if were going to be fair an factor in a se bias.