tombo82685 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 hr 114 has a sub 976 low over eastern long island ...hr 120 has a sub 972 over nh and vt border...looks like some wrap around snows do get into phl and nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 114 hours is very close to a snowstorm for the big city suburbs....and every flips over at 117 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 per the gfs phl gets 2-4 on backlash at hr 114-120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 well this is a changed run with low placement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Just after 114/115, that's actually a decent amount of moisture coming through. this could be a few inches for the big cities, solid hit for burbs. 114 hours is very close to a snowstorm for the big city suburbs....and every flips over at 117 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 looks like krdg to abe and scranton see atleast 3-6 if not more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 111 hours the surface low basically tracks up the NJ shore over Brooklyn and then north into New England. That's a pretty big east trend right there, boys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 at hr 114, the frz and 850s are past the del river...the 925 mb temp is already at -4 for phl, telling me they most likely switched around hr 113 or so...definitiely a good run for phl the burbs and nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 111 hours the surface low basically tracks up the NJ shore over Brooklyn and then north into New England. That's a pretty big east trend right there, boys. Indeed, keep it coming, 50-100 miles more east (maybe even SE?) and we're golden (or in this case white, lol ), but how many times have we said that over the years lol. Let's hope for the best! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 111 hours the surface low basically tracks up the NJ shore over Brooklyn and then north into New England. That's a pretty big east trend right there, boys. yea but can we trust this? lets see the euro next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 111 hours the surface low basically tracks up the NJ shore over Brooklyn and then north into New England. That's a pretty big east trend right there, boys. How far south do the wraparound snows get? Sounds like that the cold air rushes in behind as the low moves by, changing everything over to wet snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I am very interested in the ensembles now. If they show that they are still east of the op then things are definitely trending nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 yea but can we trust this? lets see the euro next well the euro was the first one to go towards the coastal or coastal hugger via through 2ndry development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Assuming Philly and NYC switch at around hour 114, the only precip we get is this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 How far south do the wraparound snows get? Sounds like that the cold air rushes in behind as the low moves by, changing everything over to wet snow hr 114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 How far south do the wraparound snows get? Sounds like that the cold air rushes in behind as the low moves by, changing everything over to wet snow Looks like it clips DC at 114 hours...but it's heavier north of there into PA, NJ and NY state especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 yea but can we trust this? lets see the euro next And there's the rub. Let me ask you this though, can we even trust the EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 well the euro was the first one to go towards the coastal or coastal hugger via through 2ndry development. true... i'm not buying it yet but nice to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 By far the craziest part about all of this is that the storm is still 114 hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 111 hours the surface low basically tracks up the NJ shore over Brooklyn and then north into New England. That's a pretty big east trend right there, boys. That's perfect track for Upstate E NY...BGM ... a little more east and E PA/NW NJ are in and a bit more and NYC could be game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Assuming Philly and NYC switch at around hour 114, the only precip we get is this: thats not right... i have 3 hrs increments on here and between hr 114-117, .1-.25 falls from northern delaware north. with .25-.5 from lancaster to abe and lancaster to selinsgrove north. nyc may get shafted a little more do to the low placement being closer, but they atleast see .1 in qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 By far the craziest part about all of this is that the storm is still 114 hours away. The way we've been talking about this, it seems like it should already be here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 thats not right... i have 3 hrs increments on here and between hr 114-117, .1-.25 falls from northern delaware north. with .25-.5 from lancaster to abe and lancaster to selinsgrove north I'll verify this for you on meteostar around noon. But for some reason, it seems the graphics have been underdone with precip since the upgrade. I don't know why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Lets see what Friday's runs show... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 thats not right... i have 3 hrs increments on here and between hr 114-117, .1-.25 falls from northern delaware north. with .25-.5 from lancaster to abe and lancaster to selinsgrove north. nyc may get shafted a little more do to the low placement being closer, but they atleast see .1 in qpf Thank you for that clarification. I knew it did not look right based on what has been described. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 thats not right... i have 3 hrs increments on here and between hr 114-117, .1-.25 falls from northern delaware north. with .25-.5 from lancaster to abe and lancaster to selinsgrove north. nyc may get shafted a little more do to the low placement being closer, but they atleast see .1 in qpf Should've said NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 thats not right... i have 3 hrs increments on here and between hr 114-117, .1-.25 falls from northern delaware north. with .25-.5 from lancaster to abe and lancaster to selinsgrove north. nyc may get shafted a little more do to the low placement being closer, but they atleast see .1 in qpf are the numbers down from yesterday? It seems that way to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Should've said NYC. well you included philly into it to, so thats why i commented. But that map doesnt even show phl and rdg and abe getting that much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Should've said NYC. That map you posted shows the same in NYC as it does in PHL. There has been a discontinuity between gridded data and graphical data since the upgrade, with gridded data usually being correct. I don't know why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 per the gfs phl gets 2-4 on backlash at hr 114-120 It looks more like .1-.2 l.e. to me after a switch to frozen, but that's splitting hairs. With temps plummeting that would quickly switch the rainy ugliness to a wintry scene. At the very least it's nice to have a backup plan to hope for if we don't get the whole thing. But for good wraparound I want a more consolidated mid-level center where the surface low doesn't shoot so far and fast northward (maybe something like the 6z dgex). I want to be NW of BGM for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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