Bostonseminole Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 discuss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 12z NAM at 84 HR </IMG></IMG> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 GFS is out to 72 hours and compared to 6z at 78..heights seem lower along the coast and the trough is noticeable less amplified. Maybe a colder rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 low over charlotte nc at 96hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 GFS is a good deal south and east of the 6z at 96, still gonna cut west, but there is a noticeable difference. Any mets want to chime in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Colonel Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Windy much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 There seems to be some strange happenings with the surface low in the 90-102 time frame. Maybe someone can explain it. Seems to be zig-zagging. Hard to believe so many people giving so much credibility to the model depiction of this storm when it was a week out, and even now there doesn't seem to be a solid solution to hang a hat on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Since most (if not all) of the models are now trending east with the low, I must give the GFS a pat on the back for hanging in there with the eastern solution...too early to give credit? I hope not...especially being in the ROC area. We look to get a lot of snow from this and the LES to follow. Even KBUF is leaning towards the eastern solutions (which is rarity for them at this timeframe)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 looks like the gfs is having a hard time placing the Low lots of zig zags Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 GFS is a good deal south and east of the 6z at 96, still gonna cut west, but there is a noticeable difference. Any mets want to chime in? I would venture a guess that run is pretty significant for interior portions and perhaps even portions of I95. From my reculation its the first on hour run that has shown a Eastern track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Another interesting turn. Upstate NY gets buried with this one. Frozen closer to the N and W burbs for the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Since most (if not all) of the models are now trending east with the low, I must give the GFS a pat on the back for hanging in there with the eastern solution...too early to give credit? I hope not...especially being in the ROC area. We look to get a lot of snow from this and the LES to follow. Even KBUF is leaning towards the eastern solutions (which is rarity for them at this timeframe)... Until I see ensembles, Euro etc move east, I'd still make a good bet that this thing will end on on the western edge of the Apps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Until I see ensembles, Euro etc move east, I'd still make a good bet that this thing will end on on the western edge of the Apps You may very well be correct, especially if you consider a low in Tennessee to be on the west side of the Apps, which technically it is. But there are a growing number of solutions that don't take this up the west side of the Apps like the solutions of not long ago did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Until I see ensembles, Euro etc move east, I'd still make a good bet that this thing will end on on the western edge of the Apps i think what the gfs is showing is the initial low goes west and dies out screwing most of I95 with south winds, then it tranfers to a new low but by then it is to late for most. the secondary will have to explode like crazy to wrap in the cold air quicker for people on the frozen line fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 still a ways to go but maybe enough to keep a glimmer of hope out there. interesting to see it has some snow to end in a number of spots, though with nw winds off the apps we'll see how that plays off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 still a ways to go but maybe enough to keep a glimmer of hope out there. interesting to see it has some snow to end in a number of spots, though with nw winds off the apps we'll see how that plays off. Should we add this to the list of weenie phrases? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Another interesting turn. Upstate NY gets buried with this one. Frozen closer to the N and W burbs for the cities. Even DCA changes to snow for a couple 100ths, but the forecast has to actually verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Should we add this to the list of weenie phrases? maybe... until it snows i think everyone is probably a bit weenie (except the really logical people). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Even DCA changes to snow for a couple 100ths, but the forecast has to actually verify. I still think it an outside chance at best but then I don't get very excited about getting a few hundreds after heavy rain so I may not be paying it its proper dues. With the block being so far east, it's hard to see this coming much farther east with its track. I could see it shift back west but then I thought this run probably would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I still think it an outside chance at best but then I don't get very excited about getting a few hundreds after heavy rain so I may not be paying it its proper dues. With the block being so far east, it's hard to see this coming much farther east with its track. I could see it shift back west but then I thought this run probably would. It'd fit the mod/strong Nina (DCA) profile, lots of .1" - .5" "snowfalls" with the occasional ~2" event and the very rare 3" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 GFS ensemble mean tracks the low from W NC/E TN to Chesapeake Bay to S of LI to E of BOS. It looks like it would be a pretty big snow for interior PA and NY State...big spread it looks like though based on the bagginess of the isobars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 GFS ensemble mean tracks the low from W NC/E TN to Chesapeake Bay to S of LI to E of BOS. It looks like it would be a pretty big snow for interior PA and NY State...big spread it looks like though based on the bagginess of the isobars. Haha you just beat my post about the ensembles and yeah, it did seem like there is a big spread. I could see the cities getting a period of snow at the end with a track like that. Not much, but at least something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Once again, there is nothing to force this thing east across the Atlantic-Canadian sector. That poor excuse for a 50-50 low at 48-72h that some are getting excited over is a joke. If we can get this east enough for our folks in the interior, that would be great but there is no hope for an all snow or even 50/50 snow/rain across the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 12z UKMET has the low track from just inside Cape May to south of Long Island to halfway between the benchmark and Nantucket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 12z UKMET has the low track from just inside Cape May to south of Long Island to halfway between the benchmark and Nantucket. Sounds similar to 0Z. Is that about right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Sounds similar to 0Z. Is that about right? It's significantly SE of 00z. The 00z run brough the low from northern NJ through western New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Once again, there is nothing to force this thing east across the Atlantic-Canadian sector. That poor excuse for a 50-50 low at 48-72h that some are getting excited over is a joke. If we can get this east enough for our folks in the interior, that would be great but there is no hope for an all snow or even 50/50 snow/rain across the coastal plain. I just want a couple inches of snow at the end of the storm to see how cold we can get with fresh snowcover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_12z/ensprsloopmref.html P001 ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 oh and for the Mid-Atlantic folk...the 12z UKMET tracks the surface low from Newport News to just inside Cape May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 oh and for the Mid-Atlantic folk...the 12z UKMET tracks the surface low from Newport News to just inside Cape May. Ha, was just gonna ask you that. The UKMET has been consistently east of the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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