my winter thoughts

[mappy]

Completely agree, weather weenies with a middle school education can play in paint and come up with the map that was shown. Until there is some thread of scientific reasoning behind this hypothesis, other than berating those who ask for a simple explaination, it should be completely disregarded. If my above statement makes anyone angry, then so be it. It needed to be said in order to keep the sanctity of actual science in tact with regards to meteorological forecasting.

Science is involved with forecasting?

[Ed Lizard]

Completely agree, weather weenies with a middle school education can play in paint and come up with the map that was shown. Until there is some thread of scientific reasoning behind this hypothesis, other than berating those who ask for a simple explaination, it should be completely disregarded.

If my above statement makes anyone angry, then so be it. It needed to be said in order to keep the sanctity of actual science in tact with regards to meteorological forecasting.

That weenie is getting his doctorate...

[warrinerjr]

Science is involved with forecasting?

In my opinion, absolutely.

However for some, forecasting is a glorified session of "pin the tail on the donkey" and hope there is double digit verification when its all said and done.

[warrinerjr]

That weenie is getting his doctorate...

And that's supposed to excuse lack of explaination how?

As a Ph.D student myself ( which I know will be wonderfully dismissed by some here because I wont send you my transcript ), I find it laughable that some use the word "doctorate" as a symbol or status in order to supposedly frighten those who are willing to question one's thoughts.

[CoastalWx]

Your right. I live in Northern Va and so far what I have read has made me think cold this year and borderline above average precip.I am in college for metoroligy . Long range forecasting is extremely hard to do. So many factors and seems like every couple of models are different from others. Long range is tuff and I am learning . Most of all long range forecasting is fun. Difference between fact and opinion. Just giving an opinion.Thanks

No biggie bro. Nothing wrong with an opinion. I'm not a long range expert either.

[LithiaWx]

Don't feed the trolls.

[mappy]

In my opinion, absolutely.

However for some, forecasting is a glorified session of "pin the tail on the donkey" and hope there is double digit verification when its all said and done.

Pin the tail on the donkey is a fun game

[H2O]

In my opinion, absolutely.

However for some, forecasting is a glorified session of "pin the tail on the donkey" and hope there is double digit verification when its all said and done.

So you are saying that some here(minus kush) make outlooks on wishcasting? Interesting. I would like to see a list of yours of the people who you think are just shooting darts and the ones making sincere efforts

[dryslotted]

Pin the tail on the donkey is a fun game

Especially in glorified sessions. The pageantry!

[warrinerjr]

So you are saying that some here(minus kush) make outlooks on wishcasting? Interesting. I would like to see a list of yours of the people who you think are just shooting darts and the ones making sincere efforts

I didnt imply anyone "here" was doing that, but there are plenty of people elsewhere and everywhere that do.

Nice assumption though.

[SnowGoose69]

So you are saying that some here(minus kush) make outlooks on wishcasting? Interesting. I would like to see a list of yours of the people who you think are just shooting darts and the ones making sincere efforts

I'll be perfectly honest. Most of my forecasts which involve things such as thunderstorms or fog and not necessarily weather caused by easily trackable large scale systems or trying to forecast a high or low temp is often a potpourri of junk piled together. I usually wind up correct but if I had to explain my method behind the way I come up with some of my forecasts to try and get hired for a job or justify my reasons to someone I'd probably find myself outside on the street before I had a chance to blink. I think alot of forecasters would say that too, you can try and tell someone to do exactly what you do but they will have a hard time making it work for them.

[mappy]

I'll be perfectly honest. Most of my forecasts which involve things such as thunderstorms or fog and not necessarily weather caused by easily trackable large scale systems or trying to forecast a high or low temp is often a potpourri of junk piled together. I usually wind up correct but if I had to explain my method behind the way I come up with some of my forecasts to try and get hired for a job or justify my reasons to someone I'd probably find myself outside on the street before I had a chance to blink. I think alot of forecasters would say that too, you can try and tell someone to do exactly what you do but they will have a hard time making it work for them.

So... you forecast like a glorified session of pin the tail on the donkey?

[Ellinwood]

I'll be perfectly honest. Most of my forecasts which involve things such as thunderstorms or fog and not necessarily weather caused by easily trackable large scale systems or trying to forecast a high or low temp is often a potpourri of junk piled together. I usually wind up correct but if I had to explain my method behind the way I come up with some of my forecasts to try and get hired for a job or justify my reasons to someone I'd probably find myself outside on the street before I had a chance to blink. I think alot of forecasters would say that too, you can try and tell someone to do exactly what you do but they will have a hard time making it work for them.

Ummmm no.

[H2O]

I didnt imply anyone "here" was doing that, but there are plenty of people elsewhere and everywhere that do.

Nice assumption though.

not my fault you didn't specify. You made that post on THIS board. I'm sure people like uncle w, bluewave and others appreciate not being lumped in with JB et al

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

I'll be perfectly honest. Most of my forecasts which involve things such as thunderstorms or fog and not necessarily weather caused by easily trackable large scale systems or trying to forecast a high or low temp is often a potpourri of junk piled together. I usually wind up correct but if I had to explain my method behind the way I come up with some of my forecasts to try and get hired for a job or justify my reasons to someone I'd probably find myself outside on the street before I had a chance to blink. I think alot of forecasters would say that too, you can try and tell someone to do exactly what you do but they will have a hard time making it work for them.

I'm not even a forecaster, and I know better than that.

[warrinerjr]

I'll be perfectly honest. Most of my forecasts which involve things such as thunderstorms or fog and not necessarily weather caused by easily trackable large scale systems or trying to forecast a high or low temp is often a potpourri of junk piled together. I usually wind up correct but if I had to explain my method behind the way I come up with some of my forecasts to try and get hired for a job or justify my reasons to someone I'd probably find myself outside on the street before I had a chance to blink. I think alot of forecasters would say that too, you can try and tell someone to do exactly what you do but they will have a hard time making it work for them.

Then I'd say whoever is willing to hire someone ( not anyone specifically here or anywhere for that matter ) and not question the methods and procedures for how they make a hypothesis ( weather forecast ) is making a terrible decision on how to allocate their capital.

[JoMo]

There is science behind forecasting but there is also a 'gut feeling' involved.

[Ellinwood]

There is science behind forecasting but there is also a 'gut feeling' involved.

While partially true, one could attribute it less to "gut feeling" and more to experience (aka experience with respect to trends, interpreting model biases, etc.).

[warrinerjr]

not my fault you didn't specify. You made that post on THIS board. I'm sure people like uncle w, bluewave and others appreciate not being lumped in with JB et al

Then I apologize for my lack of specificity. No one person in that statement was directly being called out for the practice.

The purpose of the statement was just to generically imply that there are several people who partake in "wishcasting / bittercasting / etc."

[okie333]

While partially true, one could attribute it less to "gut feeling" and more to experience (aka experience with respect to trends, interpreting model biases, etc.).

Yes... more of a "second nature" thing... kinda like swimming... many people would have trouble explaining to a non-swimmer how to tread water, but they can do it perfectly.

[Quixotic1]

There is science behind forecasting but there is also a 'gut feeling' involved.

I am in total agreement with this statement. Well said.

[k***]

Completely agree, weather weenies with a middle school education can play in paint and come up with the map that was shown. Until there is some thread of scientific reasoning behind this hypothesis, other than berating those who ask for a simple explaination, it should be completely disregarded.

If my above statement makes anyone angry, then so be it. It needed to be said in order to keep the sanctity of actual science in tact with regards to meteorological forecasting.

jeez dude....i was just getting a map up and it CLEARLY says my full thoughts will come next month. for a phd student you have mediocre reading comprehension.

[mappy]

Then I apologize for my lack of specificity. No one person in that statement was directly being called out for the practice.

The purpose of the statement was just to generically imply that there are several people who partake in "wishcasting / bittercasting / etc."

Are there are wishcasters and bittercasters on this board? Please tell me who they are so I can put them on ignore. Wishcasters are the worst!

[SnowGoose69]

Are there are wishcasters and bittercasters on this board? Please tell me who they are so I can put them on ignore. Wishcasters are the worst!

Bittercasters...lol...I'm gonna start using that one.

[buckeyefan1]

I wouldn't recommend it. Remember, I am only forecasting the mean temperature and on any given day the high can deviate from the mean. It's likely that you will have some crop-destroying cold snaps so proceed with caution.

No winter garden this year....thanks K***

[VAwxman]

There is science behind forecasting but there is also a 'gut feeling' involved.

When it comes to LR forecasting, there is also a lot of voodoo science that gets thrown around.

[H2O]

When it comes to LR forecasting, there is also a lot of voodoo science that gets thrown around.

solar weather

[VAwxman]

solar weather

haha that's part of it.

[VAwxman]

does that involve the use of a doll?

only the blow up variety.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

SNE weenies deserve a torch winter after their insufferable tropical posts.