k*** Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 epic for the plains...my rollover analogging method really seems to work in years where the sun is becoming active i'll update in october but i wanted to get a map out to u guys while the winter talk was starting to heat up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOORCH!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 can you put temps down please?..from your map I'm on the edge between average and torch which makes no sense at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 stick to the tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 can you put temps down please?..from your map I'm on the edge between average and torch which makes no sense at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 how much for philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 can you put temps down please?..from your map I'm on the edge between average and torch which makes no sense at all shhhhhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 13, 2011 Author Share Posted September 13, 2011 can you put temps down please?..from your map I'm on the edge between average and torch which makes no sense at all You look to be rainy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 Strong La Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 13, 2011 Author Share Posted September 13, 2011 Strong La Nina <img src='http://208.71.34.143/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/thumbsdownsmileyanim.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' /> 3 out if 5 analogs had ice storms for the NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 Strong La Nina Uh no. -1.0 is my thinking as well as that of many others here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 Uh no. -1.0 is my thinking as well as that of many others here. I wasn't being serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 Uh no. -1.0 is my thinking as well as that of many others here. Nope, It'll probably end up -4 or -5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 Where's the wintry battlezone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 13, 2011 Author Share Posted September 13, 2011 Uh no. -1.0 is my thinking as well as that of many others here. take your thoughts back to your thread. this is for discussing my forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e pluribus unum Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 Strong La Nina Not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 take your thoughts back to your thread. this is for discussing my forecast I was. You have way too much SE ridge for a borderline weak/mod east-based Niña, even without a strong -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 13, 2011 Author Share Posted September 13, 2011 Not happening. Disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 13, 2011 Author Share Posted September 13, 2011 I was. You have way too much SE ridge for a borderline weak/mod east-based Niña, even without a strong -NAO. Time will tell. How can you say I have too much SE ridge when it is something that hasn't happened yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 Time will tell. How can you say I have too much SE ridge when it is something that hasn't happened yet? Read my thread. If you need any graphics or sources for it just reply to my thread and I will provide them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 13, 2011 Author Share Posted September 13, 2011 Read my thread. If you need any graphics or sources for it just reply to my thread and I will provide them. I read it. You're wrong about the sun and some other stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 You forgot to put a snowy cold death zone over state college. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e pluribus unum Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 Disagree. There's no historic precedent for there being a strong Nina after the kind of SSTA rebound we saw this spring. The only strong 2nd year Nina events are 1955-56 and 1999-00 and both of those events sustained Nina conditions throughout the preceding spring and summer. This Nina could reach low end moderate but ENSO climo says that is about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 You forgot to put a snowy cold death zone over state college. No, in this case it's KANSAS. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 The torch zone should include New England, up to 1 mile north of BOS, but otherwise not a bad map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 Uh no. -1.0 is my thinking as well as that of many others here. Most in the know believe an el nino is on the way, and probably a strong one at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 13, 2011 Author Share Posted September 13, 2011 There's no historic precedent for there being a strong Nina after the kind of SSTA rebound we saw this spring. The only strong 2nd year Nina events are 1955-56 and 1999-00 and both of those events sustained Nina conditions throughout the preceding spring and summer. This Nina could reach low end moderate but ENSO climo says that is about it. climo is a weak argument. let's try to use better arguments than that, ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 13, 2011 Author Share Posted September 13, 2011 No, in this case it's KANSAS. lol. I don't even like snow but I have the integrity to forecast it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 Actually, all joking aside, that map could be pretty close if blocking doesn't manifest itself, although, I would expand those cold anomalies westward to include much of the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e pluribus unum Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 climo is a weak argument. let's try to use better arguments than that, ok? LOL, because you've just given us plenty to work with in this thread... I'll take the 60 to 140 years of ENSO climo over an armchair forecast with no details, thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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