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Mountain West Discussion

Chinook

By Chinook,
in Central/Western States

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weatherMA

weatherMA

Posted
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Check the picture that I posted from March 17. That is at Bear Lake Trailhead. There will still be 2-4 feet there, although it might be slushy. You could walk/hike or snowshoe in at least 2 feet of snow, although it may be very soft and slushy. You can rent snowshoes for a day. You'll see large piles of snow at the Bear Lake Trailhead, Long's Peak Trailhead, Allenspark, or maybe the north RMNP entrance (Fall River Rd). You can't drive all the way through on Trail Ridge Road-- they plow the snow on Memorial Day. You can go to the lodge at the YMCA facility for free. It is actually a hell of a view at the YMCA, and a nice lodge. Take a drive south on State Highway 7 past Long's Peak and Allenspark. By the way, you can also visit the Stanley Hotel for free. That's worth a visit.

The GFS shows snow in the mountains for next Sunday. Since it's 6-7 days away, I don't know what exactly to say.

This. I stayed there for a week in both August of '10 and '11. Great place.

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Chinook

Chinook

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Fort Collins, March 2012

Mean Temperature was 50.0 degrees which is 8.6 degrees above the normal for the month. This ranks as the warmest in the 124 year record (1889-2012). The second warmest on record is 1910 with 47.7 degrees.

Total monthly precipitation was a Trace and was 0% of normal. This ranks as the driest March in the 124 year record (1889-2012) and the first time that March did not have measureable precipitation. The second driest March on record is 1966 with 0.01”

Looks like we may actually get to -have- a Mountain West Discussion. There should be some instability on Wednesday. Also, looks like we may get rain/snow for more than a day!!!! I suppose it is still a long way out.

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colowx

colowx

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Fort Collins, March 2012

Mean Temperature was 50.0 degrees which is 8.6 degrees above the normal for the month. This ranks as the warmest in the 124 year record (1889-2012). The second warmest on record is 1910 with 47.7 degrees.

Total monthly precipitation was a Trace and was 0% of normal. This ranks as the driest March in the 124 year record (1889-2012) and the first time that March did not have measureable precipitation. The second driest March on record is 1966 with 0.01”

Looks like we may actually get to -have- a Mountain West Discussion. There should be some instability on Wednesday. Also, looks like we may get rain/snow for more than a day!!!! I suppose it is still a long way out.

Hi,

First post here in this forum. I'm also in Fort Collins and have been in the northern Front Range area since the early '60s. This past March was terrible and an absolute disaster for the snowpack and water supplies in these parts. April has picked up right where March left - extremely warm and dry. Due the lingering La Nina conditions we are unlikely to see any significant moisture any time soon - maybe some relief later this summer or fall?

I really feel for the farmers and ranchers in this area - they stand to lose the most in this type of pattern :>(

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mayjawintastawm

mayjawintastawm

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Let's root for a t-storm tomorrow and something more this weekend. The GFS seems a bit nuts- where's the block that would make a storm move so slowly? - but I am going to Chicago for a meeting Friday-Sunday which just about guarantees that we will have a blizzard that will prevent me from coming home. ...grrrr...

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Chinook

Chinook

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The HRRR is showing rain/thunder for Denver at 21z to 22z (Larimer county at 23z). There's a mini-squall line for Denver at 00:30z. Rain at 05z. Perhaps the HRRR is too convection-happy. Possible isolated supercell east of Trinidad at 22z, as well as a few possible severe storms in the northern TX panhandle.

SPC SREF thunderstorm guidance

21z, 00z, and even up to 06z are pretty high chances of thunder in this area.

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weatherMA

weatherMA

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Flying in to Salt Lake City tomorrow. Doesn't look like a ton of snow up at Park City but looks like it will be snowing much of the time. :)

Thursday: Snow. High near 46. West southwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Thursday Night: Snow likely, mainly after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 29. West southwest wind 7 to 14 mph becoming southeast. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Friday: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 46. South southeast wind between 10 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Friday Night: A 50 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 25. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

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mayjawintastawm

mayjawintastawm

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Anybody see the tornado near DIA? I was 5 miles SW when it was warned (TOR was at 38th and Tower, I was near Colfax and I-225) and only saw some scud but there was rain in between me and where it was. Closest I've ever been to a tornado. No LSR so far, so may have been just a funnel or maybe a fake-nado.

EDIT: saw a picture on news station of a very small weak almost horizontal funnel buried in the low clouds, along what looked like a boundary at the front of the rain area. Needed sharp eyes to see anything.

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ALhurricane

ALhurricane

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Big time upslope snow looking increasingly likely late in the weekend. The 12z ECMWF looks like a very favorable track for the N CO foothills. HPC has my location, just west of Estes Park, under a Day 3 slight risk of 12+ inches. Just how efficient are they at clearing the roads up here? This newbie to the area is curious. :)

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Nomad

Nomad

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Big time upslope snow looking increasingly likely late in the weekend. The 12z ECMWF looks like a very favorable track for the N CO foothills. HPC has my location, just west of Estes Park, under a Day 3 slight risk of 12+ inches. Just how efficient are they at clearing the roads up here? This newbie to the area is curious. :)

If it's like Denver, they'll put de-icer on the roads and you'll see tons of plows driving around, but you won't actually witness any plowing until the storm is over. I'm sure the road from Estes back down the mountain will be better taken care of though.

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Chinook

Chinook

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quote from BOU Discussion (300PM)

"MODELS CONTINUE TO GO HIGH WITH QPF AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS NOT AS AMBITIOUS AS BEFORE. A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS SHOW SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST ORIENTED BANDS OF 1 TO 2 INCH QPF ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND 1 TO 2 AND A HALF FOOT SNOW ACCUMS BY 00Z/MONDAY IN THE FRONT RANGE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.

MODELS EVEN SHOW PRETTY RESPECTABLE SNOW TOTALS ON THE PLAINS...WITH MOIST FLOW WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS PASSING TROUGH/UPPER LOW. HOWEVER ALL DEPENDS ON TEMPERATURES"

Hmm. 1 to 2.5 ft. I might expect 1 to 1.5 ft above 9000 ft, maybe into lower elevations. Looks like areas under 9000 ft. will get some snow over 3" for sure. QPF seems high. The SPC SREF page shows a pretty high chance of getting over 0.5" of QPF. We may have to double that - this area is likely to get over 1" of QPF. I actually am not super excited about snow. It just doesn't seem right at this point. But we average something like 12" in March.

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colowx

colowx

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Perhaps some heavy precipitation on the way. The GFS shows a forecast of over 2.5" for all the Front Range cities and mountains for this upcoming weekend.

post-1182-0-44490000-1334083401.png

Well, that GFS was just a flippin' joke wasn't it? I posted before and I'll say it again - the northern front range will not see any significant moisture until late summer or early fall. La Nina's produce terribly dry springs and that is exactly what we are seeing. April 15th and Fort Collins is at .80" for the YEAR. A trace of precip. for March and .02 for April so far (extended outlook calls for no precip. for this area, so it looks like .02 is about what we'll end up with for April).

Starting out this dry with such a thin snowpack, I just cannot imagine how this summer is going to be....

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Nomad

Nomad

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I don't have much to report. We got something like 0.05" to 0.10" in Fort Collins, and we have had sprinkles today. We have had a few wind gusts of 30-45mph today. I guess Denver got more rain than we did. Jefferson County got 2-6" of snow.

http://www.cocorahs....p.aspx?state=CO

Denver did get more, especially eastern portions (Brighton, Commerce City, Aurora). Noticed puddles on the side of the interstate driving out that way this morning. SW Denver at home, we got a nice steady rain, more than you guys up in FoCo but not as much as other places.

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mayjawintastawm

mayjawintastawm

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We are in the beginnings of drought

http://droughtmonito..._state.htm?CO,W

post-1182-0-72987700-1334864300.jpg

Looks a lot like our lawn, though we probably have 20% more green. Most of the rest of the neighborhood has turned their irrigation systems on and looks like a golf course, but at $12 a pop on average to water, I'll be happy to procrastinate. Plus my daughter just got two guinea pigs who LOVE dandelions... :)

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icebreaker5221

icebreaker5221

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What is this weird SLP analysis by the RUC? A low with southerly winds on the left side? Preposterous. Compare to HPC analysis. Sometimes I wonder on the RUC analysis in the West-- what is the RUC doing?

Aren't the surface winds at the topographical surface, which can vary from about 1000 to 700 mb in the west, while the MSLP contours are extrapolated to sea level? Winds could also be blowing quite ageostrophically from a cool valley floor to a warm hill top (or cool mountain top to a warm valley, depending on conditions), so it's possible that the RUC is not wrong. Although, when the wind is 20 kts in the exact opposite direction one would expect, I agree that there's probably something a bit off in the analysis.

Edit to add:

Actually, the reason I came to this thread was to ask if any of you are getting any much needed rain? I see that no-mans-land east of Denver is getting soaked, but that does little to aid the drought-weary lawns where most of the population resides.

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Chinook

Chinook

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We had about 0.05" to 0.20" in most cities. It was 0.05" here. There were actually a couple of puddles. So few puddles in months. We had around 0.02" on April 19 to 20. We had around 0.04" on April 11 to 12. I saw lightning. I missed lightning so much.

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