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Mountain West Discussion


Chinook

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When and what part? The split flow pattern is not all that conducive to snow this week...mostly high elevation light stuff tomorrow than again end of week. Weekend would bring the best threat comes Sunday with the arrival of a Pacific front. Best side to be on this week undoubtedly the western facing slopes.

I'm flying into SLC on Saturday, driving to Idaho Falls that afternoon, skiing Grand Targhee on Sunday (Storm day?), Jackson Hole Mon-Thurs., driving back to SLC Thursday night and skiing Friday and Saturday wherever. It seems like the two best days could be Sunday and possibly Thursday?

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Tomorrow: 1-3" in the northern Colorado area (maybe pretty weak areas of snow with 20mph wind)

Wednesday: possible chinook winds over 50mph.

Thursday morning (Feb 23): chance of snow with the arctic front behind the clipper. 20mph northwest winds possible.

I think the low on Saturday Feb 25- Sunday Feb 26 in Colorado should be a strong system, maybe a few inches of snow for Colorado. The GFS and ECMWF have a strong cold advection/arctic air. That seems to be the main agreement. The different runs of the GFS can't decide the low goes to Montana, Wyoming, or Colorado.

See GFS 00z (February 20 00z) 144 hour. E-W band of snow along the front in Colorado.

Sunday-Monday- arctic air.

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I was going to try to comment on the possibility of snow on Thursday and the weekend. Then, when I started looking at the information, the main thing of interest over the short term is the winds. I think that the chinook (or bora) wind gusts may be pretty bad. For my area, I will forecast wind gusts of 22kt tomorrow, 49kt Wednesday, and 26kt on Thursday. Temperatures near 60 Wednesday and 37 Thursday. MOS Temps are actually 67 and 49 for those two days.

post-1182-0-44541100-1329791905.gif

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I didn't see too much in the way of damage on my walk about south Boulder, but there definitely has been. I noticed a fence down in my apartment complex. Most of the weak tree limbs were felled last October when we had a heavy wet snow. But a couple trucks have been overturned on highways and some parts of town have had power outages. I actually had a dentist appt cancelled today because they lost their power and Xcel isn't expecting it back up until tomorrow.

http://dailycamera.s...33599&k=FzkhbK9

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Decided to upload a video too for those who haven't experienced a wind storm. It's strange in a way because unless there is debris flying around you don't get a good sense of just how strong the wind is until it starts to lift you up on your toes. Otherwise, it's just a typical nice looking day. (sorry for the shakiness... it was inevitable!)

http://youtu.be/hnjY-jdqrHI

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Went to bed last night at midnight. Sky was clear and a bit breezy. Weather forecast called for no more than 1 inch of snow overnight.

Woke up this morning SHOCKED. 6 inches of snow on the ground with a Winter Weather Advisory posted. Our Highlander had a hard time getting out of the driveway since I didnt leave enough time to shovel. Crazy.

Castle Pines, CO

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Late to the party (multiple commitments early this AM), but was also shocked... SHOCKED... to see 6 inches on the ground at 7:30 AM after going to bed with 52 degrees and chinook winds. Drove 12 miles up I-225 to work and there was like an inch or two. Kind of like the "foot and a half of partly cloudy" they sometimes get in Vermont, though that is typically upslope and this was just a slowed-down front. Still, I wish I had been up at about 4 AM- must have been dumping like crazy!

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Other than Loveland and north, we keep doing pretty well with moisture the past month or so in the Front Range area... either BOU or the southern suburbs down to Castle Rock get more than predicted. One more storm and I'll be good for Spring, then we just need some more mountain dumps to keep skiing going and fill the water supply.

3 bald eagles this AM playing around near the Cherry Creek Dam, one on an ice floe, the other two catching the updrafts next to the dam. Cool!

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Fort Collins is not too shabby on total snow/total precip this month. 14.7". It is the snowiest February since I moved here.

I was putting a few hopes on the Tuesday storm. It seemed like a possibility for some snow in Colorado. Now the models have too much dry air aloft and above freezing temps at 850mb over the Front Range just before the storm bombs out and leaves the Rockies area.

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Fort Collins is not too shabby on total snow/total precip this month. 14.7". It is the snowiest February since I moved here.

I was putting a few hopes on the Tuesday storm. It seemed like a possibility for some snow in Colorado. Now the models have too much dry air aloft and above freezing temps at 850mb over the Front Range just before the storm bombs out and leaves the Rockies area.

Yeah, if even 1 or two of the southern storms earlier in the winter, or this one, were a little closer we would have ourselves quite a total. Still, I have 24" here for Feb, maybe a bit more if you add a couple of random 0.3-0.7" that we got.

Yesterday's wind actually felt really good...today not quite as much.

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December to February climatic statistics:

Denver

December:

4.1 F below normal, 20.2" of snow

January:

5.3F above normal, 4.9" of snow

February:

4.6F below normal, 20.2" of snow

Totals: 1.05 F below normal, 45.3" of snow

Fort Collins

December:

1 F below normal, 13.9" of snow

January

5.5F above normal, 1" of snow

February

1.4F below normal, 14.7" of snow

Totals: 1.0F above normal. 29.6" of snow

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