Radders Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Well, look at last winter, and this non-winter in the CO mountains (snow-wise; it's actually been about average temp-wise, and even below average in Denver) so far. Last winter featured a strong Nina, and the ski areas had their best and longest lasting snow in 30 years. Skiing was good everywhere for seven straight months. A-Basin re-opened on July 4th weekend with a couple trails. Strong Nina winters tend to have good snow in the northwestern mtns of CO. This year, there is a weak Nina. Non-winter started promising in late October and early November, till the horrible pattern we are now in asserted itself. From what I read, the weak Nina we have has nothing to do with it. The storm track is consistently digging south and west... so if you want good skiing this week, go to NM- really!! Taos, Sandia Peak, etc are great, and the southern CO resorts are good too. Locally in CO, New England transplants who thrive on ice are the only ones having any fun. But if you believe that this weird pattern will break down and become more Nina-ish, then there will be greater chances for better snow moving northward again. Notice I say "chances"... it's all about probability. Thanks for the reply. I guess it is case of wait and see how Feb looks to evolve. Maybe by March, things will be better if a more typical Nina pattern develops. Tempted to hit Whistler but I bet that is what many are doing at this point. So expensive though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Still looking at some minor accumulations tomorrow with the arctic front, maybe an inch sounds about right. Looks like heavy snow wed into thursday, and then heavy rain from then into Friday. Could be looking at several inches of moisture, the first inch might be in the form of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 OK, so to resurrect this thread a bit and try to help stimulate a non-boring pattern, the talk just west of us is for beaucoup de rain and mountain snow in the Sierras and points north in the 5-9 day period. Being relatively new to CO, how often does this kind of thing translate far enough east to give us something to talk about? Want to have something to ski on!!! Mayjawintastawm, I have noticed that if the Sierra Nevada gets 2 feet, and there's a westerly pattern, then many times, the mountains west of the Continental Divide may get 1 foot or more. Places like Estes and Eldora may see quite a bit less with a strong westerly flow, due to downsloping. Sometimes a strong moist southwest flow pattern sets up with a trough on the West Coast, and the southwest San Juan mountains get 1-3 feet and most of the central mountains get 4-12". This is the southwest corner of Colorado, so most people don't go that far away from Denver to go skiing. The longer-duration southwesterly flow is not too helpful for any of the skiing north of I-70, because the San Juans steal the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 I am getting some snow. The last time I saw snow stick onto the grass a bit in Fort Collins was Dec 22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Still looks like my first major winter storm wed-? Some models don't really show it warming up much but I think it will. Should still be a good 4-8 inches unless the models steal it all away tomorrow. Its been known to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vandy Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Boulder is forecast to have "dangerous winds" with gusts up to 95mph tomorrow. First time I've seen that. Should be fun if the forecast pans out. Unfortunately, tomorrow is Boulder Bike to Work day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Boulder is forecast to have "dangerous winds" with gusts up to 95mph tomorrow. First time I've seen that. Should be fun if the forecast pans out. Unfortunately, tomorrow is Boulder Bike to Work day. Was commenting to some coworkers that I'd never seen the "Damaging Winds" wording under the NWS forecast icon before. Calling for gusts to 100mph at my house in the canyon... http://forecast.weat...n&FcstType=text EDIT: They just took away the "Damaging Winds" forecast and are now calling maximum gusts near 70mph Wednesday and 80mph Wednesday night. It now says "Very Windy" instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 This ought to be interesting. 750mb winds up to 66 knots tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 No high winds tonight here but interesting... about an hour ago the temp went from 29 to 43 in about 30 minutes with a wind shift from E to NW that picked up to about 15 mph. Chinook for sure. Will be interesting to see what it's like tomorrow AM. Incidentally it looks like the skiing will improve... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Speaking of Chinook, the opposite occured at Torrington, WY. I am pretty amazed the arctic front was able to crawl up the terrain all the way to Torrington. KTOR 191235Z AUTO 06019KT 10SM CLR M07/M13 A2969 RMK AO2 WSHFT 1215 PRESRR KTOR 191153Z AUTO 27017G26KT 10SM CLR 08/M04 A2966 RMK AO2 PK WND 27038/1059 SLP038 T00831039 10089 20078 53009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MACoastWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Since chatter is kinda slow over here, anyone have any thoughts as to how the first half of February plays out weather-wise in NW Colorado based on the forcasted teleconnection trends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 We had 3 bursts of chinook winds here. Winds were lighter in town. January 20 (0215z) KFNL 200215Z AUTO 26027G37KT 10SM BKN110 14/M02 A2962 RMK AO1 January 19 (2035z) KFNL 192035Z AUTO 27029G37KT 10SM CLR 15/M02 A2967 RMK AO1 January 19 (0415z) KFNL 190415Z AUTO 10015G20KT 10SM CLR 02/M08 A2972 RMK AO1 January 18 (2035z) KFNL 182035Z AUTO 23013G27KT 10SM CLR 07/M08 A2972 RMK AO1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 26, 2012 Author Share Posted January 26, 2012 Fort Collins was -1.0 F for December. Denver was -3.4F for December Fort Collins got up around 61-68 yesterday. Denver is +4.5F for January so far, with 4.6" of snow. I think Fort Collins has gotten 0.8" of snow this month, and is obviously above normal, much like Denver. I think we will see a few snowflakes tomorrow. Cheyenne is supposed to get 1-3" but not down here. The whole pattern really doesn't look too conducive to snow except for the high mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 My seasonal snowfall total is at 6.75 inches now, about 20% of average. We do have one more decent clipper system that will move through wednesday night with 1-3 inches of snow but after that it looks pretty dry again. I really am beginning to wonder when this will end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I ended up with 18" total for the February 2-4th storm. Drifts were really impressive....3-5feet common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 4, 2012 Author Share Posted February 4, 2012 I ended up with 18" total for the February 2-4th storm. Drifts were really impressive....3-5feet common. On Thursday night, at 11:00PM I went out to shovel. We had 5" at that point. Yesterday morning: 7". Yesterday afternoon: 8". Yesterday night: 8.5" I saw snow for over 28 hours. We had snow from 6:00PM Thursday until maybe after 10:00 or 11:00PM yesterday. In the mid-day yesterday it was pretty light, but there was always some snowflakes. It was snowing heavier at 8:30PM last night. I think I got 8.5" in my yard. We had winds of 15-20mph at times, but not the whole time. At the CSU weather station, they had 9.1" as of 7:00PM last night, and 1.6" since then, so 9.7" was the snow total. Their snow depth was 8.9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Kind of looks like things might get more interesting again in about a week. Most models seem to be hinting at this idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Kind of looks like things might get more interesting again in about a week. Most models seem to be hinting at this idea. Interesting. We already have twice as much total snow this season since 10/1 as all of last season on the Plains, and about half as much as last season in the mountains. 58" IMBY. Go figure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Starting to like the looks of the CPC mid-range forecasts: 6-10 Day 8-14 Day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I like those maps you posted boulderrr. First time I think we have seen that in several months on their maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 11, 2012 Author Share Posted February 11, 2012 We got about 3.5" last night, and early today there were a few flakes. It dumped on us for a couple hours, and it was really fluffy stuff. Now the snow is already melting off the pavement, even though it is 15 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 11, 2012 Author Share Posted February 11, 2012 I like those maps you posted boulderrr. First time I think we have seen that in several months on their maps. It looks like it will be a few degrees below normal in the next week, based on this: http://policlimate.com/weather/current/conus_raw_temp_8day_avg.png It looks like our MOS temp forecasts are just about 2 degrees below average, except for today/tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomad Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Was much warmer today at Copper Mountain than it was in Frisco or Denver. Skiing is much better than it's been all season. No more than 1/4" of snow in Denver this morning when I left and it was all gone by the time I got back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Probably the most dense freezing fog I've ever seen driving on I-25. That area between Colorado Springs and Castle Rock was exceptionally bad....quite a few accidents along that stretch late last night with the thick fog along with light blowing snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 It looks like it will be a few degrees below normal in the next week, based on this: http://policlimate.c...mp_8day_avg.png It looks like our MOS temp forecasts are just about 2 degrees below average, except for today/tomorrow I had a high of 62 yesterday but thats a distant memory with snow and 33F right now. I have no idea how it got cold enough to snow and its the first time all year I have been surprised by it. Atmosphere looks a bit too warm yet here it is. Anyway I am looking forward to hopefully some real winter weather this week...hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Redwing blackbirds returned to Cherry Creek State Park today... with nice crisp 10F temps... and all the ponds that had thawed are now refrozen . Bird brains! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 We got down to 5 or 6 degrees this morning. That the lowest temperature since Christmastime. Pictures from the blizzard, February 2 and February 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bch2014 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Hey guys I'm heading out to the Tetons this coming week, it generally seems we will have a good chance of getting some snow but would someone with a bit more knowledge be able to chime in on specific details? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Hey guys I'm heading out to the Tetons this coming week, it generally seems we will have a good chance of getting some snow but would someone with a bit more knowledge be able to chime in on specific details? Looks like there are only two posters in the forum within any kind of striking distance, one in Bozeman the other in Idaho Falls... I don't think they post regularly. The pattern we're in is good for cold weather and bits of snow here and there, as you mention though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Hey guys I'm heading out to the Tetons this coming week, it generally seems we will have a good chance of getting some snow but would someone with a bit more knowledge be able to chime in on specific details? When and what part? The split flow pattern is not all that conducive to snow this week...mostly high elevation light stuff tomorrow than again end of week. Weekend would bring the best threat comes Sunday with the arrival of a Pacific front. Best side to be on this week undoubtedly the western facing slopes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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