bluewave Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 The +EPO Eastern Trough pattern has been persistent since the beginning of August. There were several years when this was a dominant pattern for August and September. While its too early to tell how long that this pattern will last, many of the analog years featured a lingering trough in the East. even after the +EPO pattern finally shifted.It will be interesting to see if there is a resemblance to the analog composites going forward. October DJF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 Sign me up for some of THAT! Thanks again for your excellent research! Interesting to see the strong -NAO that shows up following the August and September +EPO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 12, 2011 Author Share Posted September 12, 2011 Sign me up for some of THAT! Thanks again for your excellent research! Interesting to see the strong -NAO that shows up following the August and September +EPO! Thanks.I am just looking at the composites for a very general signal of a trough in the East. There was variability from individual year to year of the analogs. Some of the more extreme winters skewed the composites to a colder look. In any event, it will be interesting to see what transpires in October to get a better idea and refine the analogs more after for the actual October pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 Thanks.I am just looking at the composites for a very general signal of a trough in the East. There was variability from individual year to year of the analogs. Some of the more extreme winters skewed the composites to a colder look. In any event, it will be interesting to see what transpires in October to get a better idea and refine the analogs more after for the actual October pattern. October is such a big month. Can you do me a solid? Can you posibly look up October's that had a +PNA and then the Dec, Jan, Feb 500 mb patterns that followed? I am positive there is a correlation between +PNA October and a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 October is such a big month. Can you do me a solid? Can you posibly look up October's that had a +PNA and then the Dec, Jan, Feb 500 mb patterns that followed? I am positive there is a correlation between +PNA October and a -NAO. these are the the average temperature maps for October and November before our snowiest winters... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 12, 2011 Author Share Posted September 12, 2011 October is such a big month. Can you do me a solid? Can you posibly look up October's that had a +PNA and then the Dec, Jan, Feb 500 mb patterns that followed? I am positive there is a correlation between +PNA October and a -NAO. Yeah, October is an important month for early winter pattern clues. A few of the biggest years for +PNA Octobers and following winter blocking patterns were 2010,1965, and 1962. Other years with Western North American ridging that was further west in October followed by blocking winters were 1993 and 2002. Some years we got lesser degrees of winter blocking after the +PNA October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 Yeah, October is an important month for early winter pattern clues. A few of the biggest years for +PNA Octobers and following winter blocking patterns were 2010,1965, and 1962. Other years with Western North American ridging that was further west in October followed by blocking winters were 1993 and 2002. Some years we got lesser degrees of winter blocking after the +PNA October. If you get the time, i would love to see the maps, or PM me on how you populate the maps and I will do it. Thanks again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 12, 2011 Author Share Posted September 12, 2011 If you get the time, i would love to see the maps, or PM me on how you populate the maps and I will do it. Thanks again. Sure. I put together a composite of +0.75 or greater PNA Octobers and rolled it forward into the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 The stage seems to be set for another epic winter in the northeast, the ingrediants will be there, its just a matter of when the blocking sets up and how long it lasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 The stage seems to be set for another epic winter in the northeast, the ingrediants will be there, its just a matter of when the blocking sets up and how long it lasts. What stage? Explain. Define epic as well. Which ingredients are you looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 Sure. I put together a composite of +0.75 or greater PNA Octobers and rolled it forward into the winter. I don't think there is any nyc snow weenie who wouldnt take their chances in a setup like that. Thank you for taking the time to do that and I am happy to see the correlation does exist and wasn't a figmant of my imagination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 Great post bluewave. Good to see those cold anomalies over the northeast, but I think a large part of that has to be due to the NAO as well, certainly a strongly +EPO cant by itself create such a trough. A +NAO would work against that, so I think its a combination of both factors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 <b></b>The stage seems to be set for another epic winter in the northeast, the ingrediants will be there, its just a matter of when the blocking sets up and how long it lasts.<b></b><b></b><b></b><b></b>I think that there will be many more winters that will be epic in the Northeast in the next few decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 Hey Bluewave, can you put up them maps showing the correlation between + Septembers temp wise (use only +1 and over) and the D,J,F temps and precip's that followed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 13, 2011 Author Share Posted September 13, 2011 Hey Bluewave, can you put up them maps showing the correlation between + Septembers temp wise (use only +1 and over) and the D,J,F temps and precip's that followed? I haven't been able to find much of a correlation between September temperatures and the winter pattern here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 I haven't been able to find much of a correlation between September temperatures and the winter pattern here. yeah, that is what I thought, its pretty much a lame duck month. Just trying to make sure I have good ammo agains the warmanistas if the heat comes back this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 13, 2011 Author Share Posted September 13, 2011 yeah, that is what I thought, its pretty much a lame duck month. Just trying to make sure I have good ammo agains the warmanistas if the heat comes back this month. Sometimes this time of year the temperatures don't always look like what you would expect from the 500 mb pattern. The teleconnections last October were great for last winter though you wouldn't necessarily have seen by just looking at the temperatures. October 2010 500 mb pattern October 2010 temperatures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 Sometimes this time of year the temperatures don't always look like what you would expect from the 500 mb pattern. The teleconnections last October were great for last winter though you wouldn't necessarily have seen by just looking at the temperatures. October 2010 500 mb pattern October 2010 temperatures The -NAO in October IMHO actually hurt us last year in the winter because the block set in for October, Nov, Dec and the broke down by the end of January. If it started a month later, we would have kicked ass all the way through February. Am I correct that Nov 2010 had a positive 500MB anomoly in the north atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 13, 2011 Author Share Posted September 13, 2011 The -NAO in October IMHO actually hurt us last year in the winter because the block set in for October, Nov, Dec and the broke down by the end of January. If it started a month later, we would have kicked ass all the way through February. Am I correct that Nov 2010 had a positive 500MB anomoly in the north atlantic? The interesting thing is that since 2002 blocking in October was usually followed up with blocking in the winter. http://www.cpc.ncep....ent.ascii.table http://www.cpc.ncep....ent.ascii.table Even though it took a while, the big blocking of October 2006 was followed by the blocking pattern in February 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 The interesting thing is that since 2002 blocking in October was usually followed up with blocking in the winter. http://www.cpc.ncep....ent.ascii.table http://www.cpc.ncep....ent.ascii.table Even though it took a while, the big blocking of October 2006 was followed by the blocking pattern on February of 2007. Blocking yes, but last year when dealing with mod to strong Nina no block = disaster, so the duration was more of a factor then actually averaging negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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