0z euro

[tombo82685]

hr 174-180 has below zero readings over the interrior with single digits n and west of the cities...cities themselves in the low to mid teens

[ORH_wxman]

Sounds like NYC may get some flakes out of this after a lot of rain, just going by the description tombo is posting?

It looks like most of I-95 sees some flakes at the end.

The storm is anafront storm...the primary is disintegrating as it goes up into northern NY State and another low froms along the cold front down in the southern M.A. states and moves due north...colder air is working in on the west side at the same time...so some areas change to snow as the storm moves north along the front (while the front is slowly moving east at the same time filtering cold air in)...it might even give some of the I-95 suburbs an inch or two of snow at the end.

Obviously its a quirky timing issue and anafront storms are very tough to forecast, but its a definite new development. Much more energy dives SE in the upper trough which doesn't support a huge bombing low cutting into NYS or the eastern lakes...rather it wants to eventually weaken that first low and form a new one along its trialing cold front with all that additional energy digging south in the trough.

[tombo82685]

It looks like most of I-95 sees some flakes at the end.

The storm is anafront storm...the primary is disintegrating as it goes up into northern NY State and another low froms along the cold front down in the southern M.A. states and moves due north...colder air is working in on the west side at the same time...so some areas change to snow as the storm moves north along the front (while the front is slowly moving east at the same time filtering cold air in)...it might even give some of the I-95 suburbs an inch or two of snow at the end.

Obviously its a quirky timing issue and anafront storms are very tough to forecast, but its a definite new development. Much more energy dives SE in the upper trough which doesn't support a huge bombing low cutting into NYS or the eastern lakes...rather it wants to eventually weaken that first low and form a new one along its trialing cold front with all that additional energy digging south in the trough.

will this may be completely wrong, but didnt some of the 18z gfs ens members have this idea or kind of idea of a low developing a long the cold front coming east?

[tombo82685]

192 the block is insane, 588dm hgts over greenland

[ORH_wxman]

will this may be completely wrong, but didnt some of the 18z gfs ens members have this idea or kind of idea of a low developing a long the cold front coming east?

Yeah some ensemble members have been hinting at the anafront possibility. They are very tough to forecast and you need a specific setup to get it to happen, but we have seen some of that on guidance...so its something to keep an eye on.

[tombo82685]

hr 204 has some lgt precip from ny state and nyc north from a retrograding low east of maine

[SnowGoose69]

The 00Z Euro run of this storm is the black sheep of the 4/6/82, 12/25/02, and 3/1/05 family.

[tombo82685]

hr 210-222 has lgt precip over the northeast from that low

[Ericjcrash]

The 00Z Euro run of this storm is the black sheep of the 4/6/82, , and 3/1/05 family.

Immediately 12/25/02 come to mind for me.

[EasternUSWX]

Interesting. Ukie is still pretty far SE.

[ORH_wxman]

interesting developments tonight

Its still a pretty awful setup overall for snow east of the Apps...but the developing anafrontal storm might allow for some places to end as a quick burst of snow. That solution is quirky though and you'd need to see it keep reappearing to gain any confidence in it.

[cnjraider]

hr 210-222 has lgt precip over the northeast from that low

Tombo, did you go out to hr 240 on the Euro?

[tombo82685]

Tombo, did you go out to hr 240 on the Euro?

no ididnt...hr 240 has insane block acorss the whole north....lgt precip from ten valley to nc south....big storm sitting off the oregon coast

[forkyfork]

Its still a pretty awful setup overall for snow east of the Apps...but the developing anafrontal storm might allow for some places to end as a quick burst of snow. That solution is quirky though and you'd need to see it keep reappearing to gain any confidence in it.

i am optimistic about the anafrontal potential with this storm.. it reminds me of dec 1, only with more cold air

[Ericjcrash]

Ensembles are also very interesting, show a coast hugger.

[SnowGoose69]

i am optimistic about the anafrontal potential with this storm.. it reminds me of dec 1, only with more cold air

Lets start praying....

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2005/us0308.php

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1993/us1211.php

[Ericjcrash]

6z GFS wants to play as well.....

[Ericjcrash]

6z GFS wants to play as well.....

And the DGEX

[phlwx]

Interesting run on the Euro for folks in N NJ and north...IMO, not going to matter much for Philly except for the potential of some flurries or snow showers on Monday.

[mdwx]

It looks like most of I-95 sees some flakes at the end.

The storm is anafront storm...the primary is disintegrating as it goes up into northern NY State and another low froms along the cold front down in the southern M.A. states and moves due north...colder air is working in on the west side at the same time...so some areas change to snow as the storm moves north along the front (while the front is slowly moving east at the same time filtering cold air in)...it might even give some of the I-95 suburbs an inch or two of snow at the end.

Obviously its a quirky timing issue and anafront storms are very tough to forecast, but its a definite new development. Much more energy dives SE in the upper trough which doesn't support a huge bombing low cutting into NYS or the eastern lakes...rather it wants to eventually weaken that first low and form a new one along its trialing cold front with all that additional energy digging south in the trough.

Am i reading the model right. It looks to me like the cold shot behind this will be worse than what we are going through now and the Lake Effect Snow machine will be back and big.

[SnowGoose69]

I'm guessing the 12Z Euro will come east of the Apps...the 00Z run sort of does the odd track I had been saying the GFS was showing over the spine of the Apps..my guess is we see something from around DC to Plattsburgh NY at 12Z...we'll see how it goes....NYC/PHL still need 50-100 miles or so more on what even the UKIE/GFS (06z) show to have a chance and I'd say really still the chances would be confined more to NYC/LI/Coastal NJ.

[mdwx]

Wow impressive cold from what I'm seeing.. Highs not even getting out of 20's mid week