Moneyman Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Euro is either on crack, or it's right on the money. The 0z yesterday though was way south, so it's probably on crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 That's fair, but i still haven't seen these "assertions" you all are talking about, a weenie saying what they think will happen isn't an assertion as much as a wishcast (not that it's any less annoying). I think everyone should be able to handle a little bit of IMBYism, lets be honest all we all care out is OBY, i don't care about what happens in yours. FWIW i find posts like: 6z Korean is south !1! Just as annoying as a newbie saying they think it trends one way or the other. Here's the dictionary definition of assertion: a positive statement or declaration, often without support or reason. Seems to me to be a word synonymous with "wishcast". So I'm not sure what distinction there you're trying to make. And when somebody posts "JMA is north", I find much greater utility in that then a weenie's wishcast based solely on his desire for it to snow IHBY. The former scenario at least provides me with some information, while the latter is completely useless, unless it's backed up with some kind of valid reasoning. But hey, everybody differs in what grinds their gears. I'm sure Hoosier will take out the garbage when/if it starts to overflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Phases earlier closes the low off and doesn't drive it as far south. well closing it off would explain why it didn't deepen more then 1000mb. Otherwise to take a storm almost due north from se ks to iowa, you'd expect that thing to be bombing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 its so crazy different it makes you think it could be scoring the coupe. You can't even really blame it on a massive full on phase either if its 'only' 1000mb over N. IL.....heck the ggem is stronger then that and its over western NY. Not often that the Euro has the far NW and wound up solution over the Ukie though. That should be a warning flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Would be typical of last year...we get bypassed so that the east coast gets another HECS. Last year was one of the best winters ever. Every month of DJF had above normal snowfall with below normal temps. I'll take last year again anytime! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 ok then euro is a toch for the eastern lakes and the other models are on the verge of threatening an eastern bypass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Nothing like a 700 mile model spread to spur conversation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 The euro is probably closer to the end result. with the Jet that strong, probably to far north with Places like Quincy to LAF in the cross-hairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Ah yes, it's not too bad. Basically it tracks due east from Central Iowa to the MI/IN/OH border (occluding), so it's not insanely far off from the consensus. I thought it went up into Central Michigan again from the way others were talking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Ukie is 2nd behind the Euro 5 days out on 500 MB. Is that a running average or just from the last little while? If it's a running average over any substantive period of time then that's suprising as hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Nothing like a 700 mile model spread to spur conversation. it's what keeps us com'n back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Ah yes, it's not too bad. Basically it tracks due east from Central Iowa to the MI/IN/OH border (occluding), so it's not insanely far off from the consensus. I thought it went up into Central Michigan again from the way others were talking. Phew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Ah yes, it's not too bad. Basically it tracks due east from Central Iowa to the MI/IN/OH border (occluding), so it's not insanely far off from the consensus. I thought it went up into Central Michigan again from the way others were talking. i just took a peak at plymouth as well and thought the same thing. At 96 it's sitting over the IN/MI border around 996 or so. Definitely the northern outlier but not as crazy as i imagined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 WillORH said its near/north of lake ontario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Not often that the Euro has the far NW and wound up solution over the Ukie though. That should be a warning flag. was it the xmas storm last year that the euro pegged it in nw MO run after run and the ukie had a coastal until it caught on within 60 hrs or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 That's fair, but i still haven't seen these "assertions" you all are talking about, a weenie saying what they think will happen isn't an assertion as much as a wishcast (not that it's any less annoying). I think everyone should be able to handle a little bit of IMBYism, lets be honest all we all care out is OBY, i don't care about what happens in yours. FWIW i find posts like: 6z Korean is south !1! Just as annoying as a newbie saying they think it trends one way or the other. For example, both 25-35% annoying, but understandable weenie excitement. I don't think buckeye's or Money's posts were weenie posts at all. Talking about what a particular model is showing for a particular area is okay, I think. Every single one of us do that. My comments were about posts that were using words like "definite" to describe the track and how it just had to move a certain way. THAT to me is being a weenie. Guess we'll just agree to disagree. Frankly I still think this is going to be a miss for us in central Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Ah yes, it's not too bad. Basically it tracks due east from Central Iowa to the MI/IN/OH border (occluding), so it's not insanely far off from the consensus. I thought it went up into Central Michigan again from the way others were talking. It was spitting out that far north ejection, early occlusion business a day or two ago. I can only see e wall but it looks like there's a weak low on the TX/OK border at hr72 which is overtaken by the northern low just east of Chicago by 96. The other models want to maintain the southern energy as dominant scooting it nearly due east, the Euro just has way more northern interaction. I give the Euro a few points for modest consistency, but it's still a hard outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I think the EURO is the only model closing off an H5 low that far south at 120. That'll set up some nice CCB snows on the storm's backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Is that a running average or just from the last little while? If it's a running average over any substantive period of time then that's suprising as hell. I posted the graph last night or some other night in the other thread, it's for a 1 year period. It was Euro, UK, GFS, GGEM if I remember correctly. Granted it may suck at other levels, this was just 500 MB anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I don't think buckeye's or Money's posts were weenie posts at all. Talking about what a particular model is showing for a particular area is okay, I think. Every single one of us do that. My comments were about posts that were using words like "definite" to describe the track and how it just had to move a certain way. THAT to me is being a weenie. Guess we'll just agree to disagree. Frankly I still think this is going to be a miss for us in central Ohio. I'll drop it, i just didn't see any definitive "it's going to go back north" posts with no or specious reasoning, i must have missed them, obviously those are annoying though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 should be some interesting AFDs in the region today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 The umket has a 997 mb low at the Miss/Al/Tn border at 96 hours the GFS has a 999mb low over Western NC at 96 hours. GEM has a 996,b low in SW Ohio at 96 hours The nam projected form 84 hours is absurdly south GEM ensemble mean is sitting over southern Ohio at 96 hours GFS is way East and South. I would be willing to bet the Euro ensembles end up much different from the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I think the EURO is the only model closing off an H5 low that far south at 120. That'll set up some nice CCB snows on the storm's backside. A handful of the 9z SREF members looked like they were going to go down that path but like you said the Euro is pretty much flying solo right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 looking at that euro definitely makes me wonder if we see the gfs crack tonight and start heading left. Wouldn't be shocked....disappointed but not shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 lol, EURO has cut off the H5 center at 144 over PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 should be some interesting AFDs in the region today. I'm sure those NWS branches that were riding the EURO will be giddy. DTX took rain out of the forecast this morning, I wouldn't be surprised if they put it back in now because of the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I would be willing to bet the Euro ensembles end up much different from the Euro. my money says the euro mean take it to ohio somewhere (bold statement i know). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 looking at that euro definitely makes me wonder if we see the gfs crack tonight and start heading left. Wouldn't be shocked....disappointed but not shocked. Which brings me back to a question I asked earlier... when are we going to have this really sampled well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Which brings me back to a question I asked earlier... when are we going to have this really sampled well? By Friday. In fact, we should being to get some good sampling tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 my money says the euro mean take it to ohio somewhere (bold statement i know). I'll jump on board. I'll do you one better and say through or a little north of CMH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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