Dec 11-13 MW/Lakes/OV Snow Event? Part II

[Powerball]

Anyways, before we veer off topic into a discussion about IMBY envy, are any other models coming out right now?

[A-L-E-K]

still gonna have to watch the mid-level cold front and if moisture rides up on that and produces a nice slow moving swath of snow on the north side with high ratios.

That's looking more and more like our best shot.

[Moneyman]

12z Euro is out to hour 54. Clipper produces .1-.25 throughout WI/MI fyi.

[snowstormcanuck]

C'mon guys, let's not turn this into a region vs. region flame war. I'll back up jbcmh81 a little as I saw a couple posts which stated a belief that the storm would trend back hard NW but had little evidence to back them up. They were from newbies I believe. You don't have to have a met's credentials, but if you make an assertion, even some rudimentary explanation to back it up would be nice.

[buckeye]

We learned fast again how to IMBYism from Ohio posters last night

well being the furthest southeast portion of the region, the resulting climatology, and of course all the pro- met representation and analysis here in the eastern OV, a little cockiness is bound to show up..

[JayPSU]

Anyways, before we veer off topic into a discussion about IMBY envy, are any other models coming out right now?

I missed the Canadian. What happened with that before we move onto the Euro?

[Thundersnow12]

That's looking more and more like our best shot.

with ratios being possibly near 20:1 it wouldn't take that much liquid to get a nice event for us. 12z GFS showing something like that.

[Powerball]

I missed the Canadian. What happened with that before we move onto the Euro?

Basically the same, just slightly weaker and a hair SE. Most notably the warm tongue isn't as ominous as it was last night..

Good hit for Northern Indiana/Ohio/Southern Michigan.

[buckeye]

I missed the Canadian. What happened with that before we move onto the Euro?

a bit southeast....goes from louisville to circleville to around central NY.....we can smell the blizzard

by the way....i heard the ukie is even further southeast than the 00z run!?! I can't find an update or get a question answered about the exact track before it hits the coast. But that's pretty amazing if true.

[ArmyGreens]

I went to grab my lunch and get some coffee and 15 min later I come back to a "lil stressed out sitiation". LOL. I think the models are screwing with everyones minds right now, including mine! Nice to see so many passionate weather nuts in one place. Oh, and I think this will stay south. hee hee

[snowstormcanuck]

a bit southeast....goes from louisville to circleville to around central NY.....we can smell the blizzard

by the way....i heard the ukie is even further southeast than the 00z run!?! I can't find an update or get a question answered about the exact track before it hits the coast. But that's pretty amazing if true.

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNM&hh=000&map=na〈=en

Definitely tracks it well east of the Apps.

[JayPSU]

a bit southeast....goes from louisville to circleville to around central NY.....we can smell the blizzard

by the way....i heard the ukie is even further southeast than the 00z run!?! I can't find an update or get a question answered about the exact track before it hits the coast. But that's pretty amazing if true.

Would be typical of last year...we get bypassed so that the east coast gets another HECS.

[A-L-E-K]

12z euro rolling out on e wall.

[Moneyman]

Euro north? It hits Iowa hard with nearly .75 QPF through 84. Bow said it has a low in South Central Iowa.

[snowstormcanuck]

Would be typical of last year...we get bypassed so that the east coast gets another HECS.

Meh, it's the PUKIE.

[Thundersnow12]

This band would be capable of putting down a quick 2-4"

[JoMo]

Meh, it's the PUKIE.

Ukie is 2nd behind the Euro 5 days out on 500 MB.

[A-L-E-K]

C'mon guys, let's not turn this into a region vs. region flame war. I'll back up jbcmh81 a little as I saw a couple posts which stated a belief that the storm would trend back hard NW but had little evidence to back them up. They were from newbies I believe. You don't have to have a met's credentials, but if you make an assertion, even some rudimentary explanation to back it up would be nice.

That's fair, but i still haven't seen these "assertions" you all are talking about, a weenie saying what they think will happen isn't an assertion as much as a wishcast (not that it's any less annoying). I think everyone should be able to handle a little bit of IMBYism, lets be honest all we all care out is OBY, i don't care about what happens in yours.

FWIW i find posts like: 6z Korean is south !1!

Just as annoying as a newbie saying they think it trends one way or the other.

For example, both 25-35% annoying, but understandable weenie excitement.

a bit southeast....goes from louisville to circleville to around central NY.....we can smell the blizzard

by the way....i heard the ukie is even further southeast than the 00z run!?! I can't find an update or get a question answered about the exact track before it hits the coast. But that's pretty amazing if true.

Euro is back to its blizzard for WI. Oh my.

[BowMeHunter]

Back to a $man tossing up monoply money solution.. w/e

[Moneyman]

Euro is back to its blizzard for WI. Oh my.

[JoMo]

From tombo:

hr 78 has an area of 1004 pressure over southern iowa, looks like its phasing earlier with the pv....lgt to mod precip iowa, central and southern mn and northern wis...area of mod precip southern mn and northern iowa, also in northwestern wis....frz line fond da luc to min/iowa border then straight down the middle of iowa

hr 84 has a 1004 pressure centered over south central ill...lgt to mod precip wis, southern mn, iowa...with an area of mod precip western wis, southeast mn,northwestern iowa...hvy precip over far se corner of mn and far nw corner of iowa.....frz line fond da luc to far northeastern iowa then straight down cutting through eastern iowa

hr 90 has a an area of 1000 pressure over northern ill/in border....hvy snow for iowa and all of wisonsin and west of chicago out towards rockford

[JayPSU]

Euro back to being the extreme NW outlier. One thing is for sure, we're going to gain a lot of confidence in a model, and lose a lot in another.

[buckeye]

Euro is back to its blizzard for WI. Oh my.

unreal....and we're 3 days out basically

[WestMichigan]

Euro back to being the extreme NW outlier. One thing is for sure, we're going to gain a lot of confidence in a model, and lose a lot in another.

Having moved from Columbus to West Michigan this summer, if we can't have it then I am rooting for you. Unfortunately it is pretty hard to make both of us happy for any given event.

[ArmyGreens]

Euro back to being the extreme NW outlier. One thing is for sure, we're going to gain a lot of confidence in a model, and lose a lot in another.

I will agree if the euro continues nw next run.

[Powerball]

Euro back to being the extreme NW outlier. One thing is for sure, we're going to gain a lot of confidence in a model, and lose a lot in another.

These are some significant changes within 3 runs, that's for sure.

It sounds like it's further NW than it was on yesterday's 12z RUN (which was already an outlier).

I'll be interesting to see if the ensembles remain consistent with the general consensus.

[buckeye]

From tombo:

hr 78 has an area of 1004 pressure over southern iowa, looks like its phasing earlier with the pv....lgt to mod precip iowa, central and southern mn and northern wis...area of mod precip southern mn and northern iowa, also in northwestern wis....frz line fond da luc to min/iowa border then straight down the middle of iowa

hr 84 has a 1004 pressure centered over south central ill...lgt to mod precip wis, southern mn, iowa...with an area of mod precip western wis, southeast mn,northwestern iowa...hvy precip over far se corner of mn and far nw corner of iowa.....frz line fond da luc to far northeastern iowa then straight down cutting through eastern iowa

hr 90 has a an area of 1000 pressure over northern ill/in border....hvy snow for iowa and all of wisonsin and west of chicago out towards rockford

its so crazy different it makes you think it could be scoring the coupe. You can't even really blame it on a massive full on phase either if its 'only' 1000mb over N. IL.....heck the ggem is stronger then that and its over western NY.

[JoMo]

Phases earlier closes the low off and doesn't drive it as far south.

[Thundersnow12]

WOW to the the euro.

[A-L-E-K]

Nothing like a 700 mile model spread to spur conversation.