Dec 11-13 MW/Lakes/OV Snow Event? Part II

[Hoosier]

Yes, however the NAM is in the incipient stages of explosive cyclogenesis given the upper air pattern at 300 mb with those coupled jet maxes (right rear quad + left front quad maximizing upper divergence).

I was thinking the same thing. Wouldn't be surprised at all if the latest runs are too weak with the surface low...and we've seen that happen many times.

[Thundersnow12]

Each model run seems to have less and less wave interaction and delays it further and further east. It won't take much of a timing or placement change to flip things back but we're not seeing much to indicate that's imminent, so yeah, it isn't looking very good. The good news, less rain and maybe we can get things to shift even more south because the band associated with the northern piece looks pretty healthy as one would expect a frontogenic band along such a nice tightening baroclinic zone would be.

Ya I could see that happening but would love to see this come back north, I guess it could with it not even being onshore yet.

[Stebo]

I was thinking the same thing. Wouldn't be surprised at all if the latest runs are too weak with the surface low...and we've seen that happen many times.

Yes, I think the SE trend that has been occurring the last day ends very soon. We always have to deal with the one day trend southeast in this time range for years, so people should get off the ledges.

[snowstormcanuck]

Some pretty mangy solutions up in there, would be a shame if a such a nice jet cranked out such a lame event. But yes, agreement on suppressed and weak is pretty good there.

P001, 002, 004, and 006 are especially weird. They seem to have some sort of intermediate area of low pressure over WI around 72 hours. It's not the main storm to the SW nor the initial clipper.

[Stevo6899]

Yes, if anything the west coast is playing a bigger factor this time (we need the northern steram to dig harder and a tad faster).

However, while it's not an actual 50/50 low, its current poisitioning does seem to be part of the reason why the clipperis leaving behind confluence (and thus trying to keep this storm surpressed).

If the clipper digs more wont that leave more cold air behind it and southeast, thus supressing the storm even more? I agree we want more of a faster clipper, but I think we want a weaker low too. But if its weaker that's less cold air for the next system. Also the snowcover from the clipper (only 1-3) could but probably wont play a role in pushing the storm south. Thanks for the input. Still learning.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Some pretty mangy solutions up in there, would be a shame if a such a nice jet cranked out such a lame event. But yes, agreement on suppressed and weak is pretty good there.

This will be deeper and further north. Not sure how far yet, but this won't happen, the models are confused with so many vort max. The gem has a better handle on it.

[snowlord81]

P001, 002, 004, and 006 are especially weird. They seem to have some sort of intermediate area of low pressure over WI around 72 hours. It's not the main storm to the SW nor the initial clipper.

Agree, some solutions just dont appear realistic. The 12z GFS is like a 180 compared to yesterday. Im not gonna worry until 12z tomorrow or 00z Friday. By then we should have a decent idea of whats going to unfold. We've all been burned before throwing in the towel to early.

[jbcmh81]

It seems there is a lot of IMBYism going on with the model runs. I do agree it'll probably end up further north than the GFS is showing, but I think those expecting a return to the far northern solutions are probably going to be pretty disappointed. We might all end up screwed in some way with this one.

[Powerball]

If the clipper digs more wont that leave more cold air behind it and southeast, thus supressing the storm even more? I agree we want more of a faster clipper, but I think we want a weaker low too. But if its weaker that's less cold air for the next system. Also the snowcover from the clipper (only 1-3) could but probably wont play a role in pushing the storm south. Thanks for the input. Still learning.

Unless it's immediately at the surface or you're expecting an icing event, snowcover has very little impact on a storm, at least in the lower 48.

[A-L-E-K]

This will be deeper and further north. Not sure how far yet, but this won't happen, the models are confused with so many vort max. The gem has a better handle on it.

It seems there is a lot of IMBYism going on with the model runs. I do agree it'll probably end up further north than the GFS is showing, but I think those expecting a return to the far northern solutions are probably going to be pretty disappointed. We might all end up screwed in some way with this one.

I don't think the models are "confused with so many vort max" I just think that what they are injesting the past day or so is cranking out a solution with little wave interaction/phasing. They've pulled this card before and been wrong leading to drastic shifts back NW, but that doesn't guarnatee it's the case this time. I really don't see much IMBYism going on.

[Thundersnow12]

I don't think the models are "confused with so many vort max" I just think that what they are injesting the past day or so is cranking out a solution with little wave interaction/phasing. They've pulled this card before and been wrong leading to drastic shifts back NW, but that doesn't guarnatee it's the case this time. I really don't see much IMBYism going on.

1/31-2/1 of 2008 comes to mind when it was going to pass to our southeast and came back northwest during its evolution that day.

[Tony]

What I have heard from many meteorologists is that the European models are far more superior due to the physics of the model and that is why they trust them more than the American models 3-5 days out. Does anyone have any input reagarding this as I am not very well versed at all with this??

[Stevo6899]

Forecasting this storm kind of reminds me last year of one of the midatlantic blizzards. Although I think it was more of a surprise, it was a phasing storm If i remember correctly. Basically as we all know the models and mets have a hard time displaying if and where the phasing takes place. I honestly wouldn't doubt a track that the euro has yesterday going through michigan, or a track that the gfs showed today. These kinds of storms have to drive mets crazy.

[jbcmh81]

I don't think the models are "confused with so many vort max" I just think that what they are injesting the past day or so is cranking out a solution with little wave interaction/phasing. They've pulled this card before and been wrong leading to drastic shifts back NW, but that doesn't guarnatee it's the case this time. I really don't see much IMBYism going on.

Models have also been known to build a big storm only to eventually string it out into a non-event as we got closer and that ended up being the reality. There are certainly no guarantees it has to come back north even if we all think it will probably do so. When do we actually start having this thing really sampled?

[oldlogin]

Snippet from IND

ATTEMPTING TO PLACE ANY KIND OF SNOW AMOUNTS ON THIS STORM

REMAINS A FOOLS ERRAND AT THIS TIME...BUT SUFFICE TO SAY SOMEONE

IN THE REGION MAY SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWS THIS WEEKEND.

[BowMeHunter]

It seems there is a lot of IMBYism going on with the model runs. I do agree it'll probably end up further north than the GFS is showing, but I think those expecting a return to the far northern solutions are probably going to be pretty disappointed. We might all end up screwed in some way with this one.

We learned fast again how to IMBYism from Ohio posters last night

[Powerball]

Models have also been known to build a big storm only to eventually string it out into a non-event as we got closer and that ended up being the reality. There are certainly no guarantees it has to come back north even if we all think it will probably do so. When do we actually start having this thing really sampled?

Yes.

And to be fair there's just enough support for both scenarios.

[The_Global_Warmer]

I don't think the models are "confused with so many vort max" I just think that what they are injesting the past day or so is cranking out a solution with little wave interaction/phasing. They've pulled this card before and been wrong leading to drastic shifts back NW, but that doesn't guarnatee it's the case this time. I really don't see much IMBYism going on.

There is a difference between one weak or strong vort and the multiple the nam and gfs have, the nam is all over the place with a half dozen what does that have to do with phasing?

[Thundersnow12]

Models have also been known to build a big storm only to eventually string it out into a non-event as we got closer and that ended up being the reality. There are certainly no guarantees it has to come back north even if we all think it will probably do so. When do we actually start having this thing really sampled?

I believe 12z friday

[snowstormcanuck]

Here's GEFS 72 accum precip ending at 126. Some of these might be contaminated with clipper QPF, but it's so meager it's essentially irrelevant.

[Hoosier]

Snippet from IND

ATTEMPTING TO PLACE ANY KIND OF SNOW AMOUNTS ON THIS STORM

REMAINS A FOOLS ERRAND AT THIS TIME...BUT SUFFICE TO SAY SOMEONE

IN THE REGION MAY SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWS THIS WEEKEND.

My mood is cautiously optimistic.

[jbcmh81]

We learned fast again how to IMBYism from Ohio posters last night

I didn't really see anyone from Ohio suggesting it had to come south in the same way I see people today suggesting there will be some inevitable north turn. Either solution is pretty likely at this point. We all want snow.

[JayPSU]

We learned fast again how to IMBYism from Ohio posters last night

Seems to me a lot of the Ohio posters have been sitting back quietly and watching this thread with amusement, but that's just me.

[jbcmh81]

Seems to me a lot of the Ohio posters have been sitting back quietly and watching this thread with amusement, but that's just me.

In fact, I've been saying all along I didn't think it was going to be an Ohio storm since it goes hard against climo.

[A-L-E-K]

I didn't really see anyone from Ohio suggesting it had to come south in the same way I see people today suggesting there will be some inevitable north turn. Either solution is pretty likely at this point. We all want snow.

Sorry I must have missed that, obv nothing is inevitable right now.

[Powerball]

The ensembles (at the CPC) have continued to back off on the -NAO going neutral, at least for now.

For some reason my right clicker is acting up, so I can't post the image.

[JayPSU]

In fact, I've been saying all along I didn't think it was going to be an Ohio storm since it goes hard against climo.

Yep, we notoriously do poorly in this setup and I expect nothing different. Our best case scenario would be Dec 2004, but that was the exception to the rule.

[Stebo]

In fact, I've been saying all along I didn't think it was going to be an Ohio storm since it goes hard against climo.

Yeah I'm not sure what a couple WI posters are driving at here with the complaint on OH, If anything there has been serious IMBYisms that I have read for those areas.

To be honest no one should be happy or sad about the models right now with being shifty. There is no point in congratulating anyone right now as things will change.

[oldlogin]

My mood is cautiously optimistic.

As am I---Good luck to LAF

[Thundersnow12]

still gonna have to watch the mid-level cold front and if moisture rides up on that and produces a nice slow moving swath of snow on the north side with high ratios.