buckeye Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 ggem nudged southeast and a tad weaker.....best snow now from bloomington-toledo-detroit-cleveland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Whys that? Do you think the trough will dig to much and send the storm way south? I just mention that jet as a concern for the intensity of the upcoming storm, whatever track it decides to take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 john dee is pretty frickin good. I haven't seen him miss a whole lot. I'll go down with him on this one. 8-12 for wisco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 and of course our beloved "special" model, the nogaps, is now back to a chicago special with a track thru eastern IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 It looks like that low NE of Canada may just act as our 50/50 Low (which makes up for blocking in an east-based -NAO). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 bank it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Could one take into the equation a Warmer then normal Lake Michigan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 GGEM keeps the sfc low west of the mountains longer, hence a bit better with the QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 bank it Very John Deeish, but it's still a run of the GFS... 9 inches for Grand Daddy's Bluff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 It looks like that low NE of Canada may just act as our 50/50 Low (which makes up for blocking in an east-based -NAO). I have read that a lot. What is a 50/50 low? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Moneyman special. GFS gives me 0.21 for the clipper and nearly .4 for the 2nd system. GEM has .25 for the clipper and .2-.25 for the 2nd system. Looks like a solid 5-7 inches between these two systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 john dee is pretty frickin good. I haven't seen him miss a whole lot. I'll go down with him on this one. 8-12 for wisco. Good luck on the 8-12 call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Are the 12z GFS ensembles out yet? I'd appreciate it if someone could post a link, I cant for the life of me find it. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Are the 12z GFS ensembles out yet? I'd appreciate it if someone could post a link, I cant for the life of me find it. Thanks. Not yet http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ewallmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Are the 12z GFS ensembles out yet? I'd appreciate it if someone could post a link, I cant for the life of me find it. Thanks. someone posted them in another region thread...way east of OP. surprise surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Are the 12z GFS ensembles out yet? I'd appreciate it if someone could post a link, I cant for the life of me find it. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 bank it Must be spitting out some good ratios associated with the northern semi stationary band that sets up along the tightening baroclinic zone. Most models are pretty consistent on showing this feature, but with varying intensities. Could one take into the equation a Warmer then normal Lake Michigan? It's not that much warmer than normal for early december, now in the low 40s mid lake with near shore ice build up, the recent cold and wind is knocking it down pretty quick. In the end the only thing the lake will do is keep lakeside areas rain in marginal temp situations, i don't see it having any large scale impacts on how the storm goes down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Lock it in: NW OH averages out to around 1" there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I have read that a lot. What is a 50/50 low? Thanks a 50/50 low is an area of low pressure located near longitude 50W/latitude 50N (roughly Newfoundland). You're not really seeing one with this setup. But I agree with Powerball that the clipper provides just enough confluence upstream of the mainstorm that prevents it from cutting hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Lock it in: i can smell the snow on that one....hoping for a typical ggem western bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 a 50/50 low is an area of low pressure located near longitude 50W/latitude 50N (roughly Newfoundland). You're not really seeing one with this setup. But I agree with Powerball that the clipper provides just enough confluence upstream of the mainstorm that prevents it from cutting hard. I see it playing a small role. My thinking was that it's not cutting because its not phasing or strengthening early enough to cut too far west. Wouldn't a big storm like this be able go anywehre once it phases and move the low to the north out of the way? I am probably wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Adding up the GGEM panels, looks like 17-18mm QPF. I'll guess 12:1 ratios on average so 20-22cm or 8-9". Fine by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 i can smell the snow on that one....hoping for a typical ggem western bias The trend is your friend as long as it doesn't keep up for another day or two, then you'll be congratulating Ji. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 my optimism is starting to fade.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Moneyman special. GFS gives me 0.21 for the clipper and nearly .4 for the 2nd system. GEM has .25 for the clipper and .2-.25 for the 2nd system. Looks like a solid 5-7 inches between these two systems. GFS is giving MSN 0.6" between the systems, which could end up going a very long way since temps look cold during both events. Low 20s for the clipper and upper teens for the snowstorm. The mid-atlantic dreams of thermal profiles like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I see it playing a small role. My thinking was that it's not cutting because its not phasing or strengthening early enough to cut too far west. Wouldn't a big storm like this be able go anywehre once it phases and move the low to the north out of the way? I am probably wrong Yes, if anything the west coast is playing a bigger factor this time (we need the northern steram to dig harder and a tad faster). However, while it's not an actual 50/50 low, its current poisitioning does seem to be part of the reason why the clipperis leaving behind confluence (and thus trying to keep this storm surpressed). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 i'll bet the ukie comes in further nw..... at 72 hrs on plymouth it had a stronger low in north tx (1004) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 my optimism is starting to fade.. Each model run seems to have less and less wave interaction and delays it further and further east. It won't take much of a timing or placement change to flip things back but we're not seeing much to indicate that's imminent, so yeah, it isn't looking very good. The good news, less rain and maybe we can get things to shift even more south because the band associated with the northern piece looks pretty healthy as one would expect a frontogenic band along such a nice tightening baroclinic zone would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Overall some divergence, but the flavor seems to be a more easterly track than the OP model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Overall some divergence, but the flavor seems to be a more easterly track than the OP model. Some pretty mangy solutions up in there, would be a shame if a such a nice jet cranked out such a lame event. But yes, agreement on suppressed and weak is pretty good there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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