Dec 11-13 MW/Lakes/OV Snow Event? Part II

[A-L-E-K]

exactly....we have ALL been burned by the nw trend, much moreso than a southeast trend. Last year was a whole different animal though, there was no nw trend....but then again last year was just wacky all around. When DC beats great lakes and midwest regions in snowfall, you know things are upside down.

DC will always have the potential to be the great lakes as long as that ocean is there, it's going to happen from time to time.

[buckeye]

at 72, nam is even more strung out with the energy in the west than it was on the 6z run.....fwiw

edit...at 78 weaker at 850 as well

[A-L-E-K]

at 72, nam is even more strung out with the energy in the west than it was on the 6z run.....fwiw

edit...at 78 weaker at 850 as well

Yep, the NAM looks like it will be entering the game on the far south side of the game, GFS ensemble style.

By 84 it does have an 850 low in southern illinois, which is a hair northwest of the GFS, but it's weaker.

[Thundersnow12]

LOT

PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE FRIDAY-TUESDAY. DEEP LOW OFF

THE PAC COAST HAS BEEN FORECAST FOR DAYS NOW BY GUIDANCE TO SHIFT

EWD WITH SIGNIFICANT RIDGING TAKING PLACE OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS

AREA OF ENERGY...EN MASSE...HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECAST TO

EVOLVE INTO AN AMPLIFYING SYSTEM EAST OF THE ROCKIES HEADING INTO

THE WEEKEND. IN RESPONSE...SIGNIFICANT...PERHAPS

MAJOR...CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED SAT-SUN. MOST FORECAST MODELS

HAVE SFC LOW FORMING AROUND NERN TX EARLY SAT MORNING...THEN

DEEPENING NEWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SAT EVENING. THE GFS...NAM

AND UK HAVE BEEN MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE EUROPEAN

HAS HAS THE MOST PROBLEMS WITH CONSISTENCY...WITH THE 00Z RUN NOW

IN MUCH CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND IS ABOUT 400 MI FURTHER

S WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS COMPARED TO ITS PREVIOUS RUN.

CONSIDERING THESE MODEL TRENDS...AND COLLABORATION...HAVE DECIDED

TO BUMP UP SNOW POPS SAT NIGHT INTO LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS ALL

BUT NORTH CENTRAL IL. STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO GET OVERLY EXCITED

ABOUT THIS...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A MAJOR SNOWSTORM

SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF WHAT THE

EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS...THE RESULT WILL BE A HIGHLY

AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NOAM BY SUNDAY...WITH

RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST...AND DEEP TROUGHING TO THE EAST. FOR

THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS WOULD SUGGEST A POLAR OUTBREAK OF

GREATER MAGNITUDE THAN WHAT WE'RE NOW EXPERIENCING. THUS HAVE

TENDED TO UNDERCUT TEMPS...ESPECIALLY MINS...DAYS 5-7. ALL IN ALL...IF

YOU DON'T LIKE COLD...AND PERHAPS MORE SNOW I WOULD RECOMMEND A

TICKET TO LAX WHERE THIS PATTERN SHOULD PROVIDE A MUCH MORE

COMFORTABLE...WARM AND DRY ENVIRONMENT.

MERZLOCK

[buckeye]

Yep, the NAM looks like it will be entering the game on the far south side of the game, GFS ensemble style.

By 84 it does have an 850 low in southern illinois, which is a hair northwest of the GFS, but it's weaker.

yea, the nam looks confused...imagine that ! has a surface low near dallas and an 850 near paducah. The energy in the trough still looks like a cluster $#@!

[csnavywx]

Yep, the NAM looks like it will be entering the game on the far south side of the game, GFS ensemble style.

By 84 it does have an 850 low in southern illinois, which is a hair northwest of the GFS, but it's weaker.

Yes, however the NAM is in the incipient stages of explosive cyclogenesis given the upper air pattern at 300 mb with those coupled jet maxes (right rear quad + left front quad maximizing upper divergence).

[A-L-E-K]

Yes, however the NAM is in the incipient stages of explosive cyclogenesis given the upper air pattern at 300 mb with those coupled jet maxes (right rear quad + left front quad maximizing upper divergence).

And it's at 84 hrs which is about 83 hrs past its useful range. I'm not throwing in the towel yet.

The GFS and NAM are also both hinting at an area of light/mod snow breaking out along the northern periphery in the area of enhanced frontogenesis, a lull just south and then more action well south closer to the low track. This is something we've definitely seen before.

[csnavywx]

And it's at 84 hrs which is about 83 hrs past its useful range. I'm not throwing in the towel yet.

The GFS and NAM are also both hinting at an area of light/mod snow breaking out along the northern periphery in the area of enhanced frontogenesis, a lull just south and then more action well south closer to the low track. This is something we've definitely seen before.

Yes, and a 6-12 hour difference on this type of system is huge for determining precip amt and placement.

[buckeye]

Yes, and a 6-12 hour difference on this type of system is huge for determining precip amt and placement.

what are your thoughts on that storm coming into the pac nw at the same time 'our' storm is taking shape in tx? would that not tend to keep things more progressive?

[buckeye]

nam needs to get it's act together with that trough....looks like an 'x' party

[A-L-E-K]

Indvidual member spread pretty huge with a few scooting harmlessly across the deep south and a few cutting pretty hard.

[BowMeHunter]

And it's at 84 hrs which is about 83 hrs past its useful range. I'm not throwing in the towel yet.

The GFS and NAM are also both hinting at an area of light/mod snow breaking out along the northern periphery in the area of enhanced frontogenesis, a lull just south and then more action well south closer to the low track. This is something we've definitely seen before.

Sounds about right.... Saukville back to La Crosse will be under a stationary band of moderate snow..... I'll have 5 and 10dBZ of pixie dust... And then the main system snow Kenosha south.

If the NoCrap and Jap models can be posted I'll go down burning with the NW bias, John Dee.

John Dee dot com.

"The forecast for the weekend still sees a fairly strong area of low pressure to track through the Midwest. The models have come into better agreement on the details to the track of the low and thus the placement of the rain/snow line and heaviest band of snow and things have been shifted south from my previous forecast. The main rain/snow line looks to set up very close to I-80 across central IA, northern IL, IN and OH and the heaviest snows will fall from just to the north of that line and north around 150 miles or so. So the northern ½ of IA, far northern IL, IN and OH as well as southern WI and southern lower MI look to see as much as 4-8" fall later Saturday into Sunday, with some locales picking up more than 8" out of this event.

For areas south of that line it looks like a rain event and for the Northwoods, it just looks cold, with perhaps a bit of light snow in the far southern reaches of the Northwoods."

[A-L-E-K]

No one can accuse John Dee of being a model hugger that's for sure.

[csnavywx]

No one can accuse John Dee of being a model hugger that's for sure.

If you remove some of the ridiculous outliers (like the entire terribad ETA member set and a couple of the obvious ones from the other two), you end up with a pretty even set of lake cutters that average out to a more northerly track, probably a lot more like Dee's map there suggests, though I'd expect a tail of accums to the SW too.

[buckeye]

If you remove some of the ridiculous outliers (like the entire terribad ETA member set and a couple of the obvious ones from the other two), you end up with a pretty even set of lake cutters that average out to a more northerly track, probably a lot more like Dee's map there suggests, though I'd expect a tail of accums to the SW too.

you'll enjoy this...speaking of ridiculous. I just watch Elliott Abrams video on accuwx and he leads off with the 6z dgex coastal bomb.

[csnavywx]

you'll enjoy this...speaking of ridiculous. I just watch Elliott Abrams video on accuwx and he leads off with the 6z dgex coastal bomb.

[The_Global_Warmer]

If this doesn't make it''s way back to a more powerful closed solution it won't matter anyways

[A-L-E-K]

If you remove some of the ridiculous outliers (like the entire terribad ETA member set and a couple of the obvious ones from the other two), you end up with a pretty even set of lake cutters that average out to a more northerly track, probably a lot more like Dee's map there suggests, though I'd expect a tail of accums to the SW too.

Yeah i posted the member spread above. I wasn't familiar with which individual members do better/worse. But like you said, there's still plenty of support for something a little more wound up and north.

[WxMidwest]

Yeah, I think when this storm gets sampled, things like SLU's Analog Guidance will come into play, and we will notice that the -ENSO/-PDO climatology supports the more northern solutions.

[Thundersnow12]

12z GFS 72hrs

[snowstormcanuck]

Looks like we got a sfc low over far NW Alabama at 84 However, elongated nature of the low is allowing snow to penetrate as far north as C WI.

[snowstormcanuck]

Same ole Same ole. 992 over central-north NC at 102.

[A-L-E-K]

The OP GFS continues to trend towards its disjointed and southern ensembles.

[snowstormcanuck]

Can't really complain too much about the GFS depiction. Obviously would like the sfc system to track further west, but the 700/850mb low is in a good position for decent (although probably not heavy) deformation zone snows.

[weatherbo]

The OP GFS continues to trend towards its disjointed and southern ensembles.

Have to lend a lot of credibility to John Dee's forecast. IMO, rarely is he off the mark by much.

[hawkeye_wx]

The GFS may be crapping out the main low and shifting it southeast, but each run continues to show a northern disturbance dropping a decent snow on Iowa. Much of Iowa has been largely shut out so far this season so I'd love 2-5 inches.

[buckeye]

gfs is doing kinda what the nam is doing with the unorganized trough energy coming in from the west. Trough doesn't have time to get it's act together dig and try to go negative.

I'm starting to wonder if a scenario of no phase and a weaker system riding the coldfront to the coast isn't plausible.

[Powerball]

Well at least it's looking better for some of us with the preceeding clipper.

Double edged sword I suppose.

[Indystorm]

As always, we will have to wait for this system to get fully sampled to have a reasonable idea of what is going to happen. But I must admit that strong forecast jet max on the west side of the trough concerns me. Nearly 7 inches of fluffy snow here from the lake effect the past few days. So I can't complain.

[snowlord81]

As always, we will have to wait for this system to get fully sampled to have a reasonable idea of what is going to happen. But I must admit that strong forecast jet max on the west side of the trough concerns me. Nearly 7 inches of fluffy snow here from the lake effect the past few days. So I can't complain.

Whys that? Do you think the trough will dig to much and send the storm way south?