Dec 11-13 MW/Lakes/OV Snow Event? Part II

[Toronto4]

Ugh, I hope not. These big snowstorms are so unusual for us it's best to downplay the potential until say within in 72 hours. But I know Farnell will be out there tomorrow at 6pm spewing out amounts.

Ok, gotta get a few hours sleep before the 6z runs.

I agree.

[Chicago Storm]

Sounds delish. Could you ballpark the QPF?

Maybe .40" ish.

Rough estimate...

Should have originally said nice hit IMO.

[on_wx]

This will be a major news story in the next few days. Also, I *think* the forecasted track could be similar to the massive blizzard that shut down Toronto on December 11/12th, 1944 with 23" of snow. A primary low going to Ohio with a secondary reforming in around BGM/SYR.

One can only hope...

[Chicago Storm]

[Chicago Storm]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/cmcensemble/00zggemensemblep12096.gif

http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12108.gif

[BowMeHunter]

Does the Euro show a decent surge of moisture up through eastern Iowa in the 84-96 hour period like the GFS and GEM? I wouldn't mind a few inches of snow given the crappy main storm track.

Few inches especially east of CR looks doable on the Euro this run.. goes south more like there is probably a good chance, well I don't know.. GL though! You deserve it this young winter.

[snowstormcanuck]

Not a huge fan of the ESE slide of the sfc low from far S OH to VA the 6z GFS has. Has the effect of transferring a lot of the juice to the eastcoast too quickly.

[Ajdos]

Not a huge fan of the ESE slide of the sfc low from far S OH to VA the 6z GFS has. Has the effect of transferring a lot of the juice to the eastcoast too quickly.

agree we-need the first shortwave to be stronger.

[csnavywx]

Wow, beautiful coupled jet structure showing up at 300/250mb on the GFS. Euro shows hints of that too. If this is the case, our global models may be underdoing the cyclogenesis, especially around the time it approaches and crosses the Mississippi River. They already show deepening rates around the threshold for explosive cyclogenesis, but I'd imagine a good mesoscale model will tell the real story when we get inside 72 hr.

[snowstormcanuck]

Here's a bone thrown to the WI crew from DTX

ALTHOUGH THE 00Z EURO

HAS ABANDONED ITS FAR NORTHWEST TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS

CENTRAL MICHIGAN...THINK THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF FURTHER TRACK

ADJUSTMENTS NEEDING TO BE MADE TO THE NORTHWEST RATHER THAN TO THE

SOUTHEAST.

[csnavywx]

Here's a bone thrown to the WI crew from DTX

ALTHOUGH THE 00Z EURO

HAS ABANDONED ITS FAR NORTHWEST TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS

CENTRAL MICHIGAN...THINK THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF FURTHER TRACK

ADJUSTMENTS NEEDING TO BE MADE TO THE NORTHWEST RATHER THAN TO THE

SOUTHEAST.

And this I agree with, but I don't expect a ton of it until we get into shorter time ranges.

[A-L-E-K]

We've seen this movie play out before, If we have a low in play by OK, good luck getting that thing to sneak east toward VA, i just don't buy it.

The good news is with the current solutions i get less rain (GGEM aside).

[buckeye]

lol....6z dgex has a 968 along the midatlantic coast...HECS

[Chicago WX]

Euro went south, huh? Nice.

Now watch this thing become a strung out piece of crap that slides off the SE coast.

[KokomoWX]

WTHR this AM casually said 2-4" Indy/metro and 6" LAF/north.

[LizardMafia]

WTHR this AM casually said 2-4" Indy/metro and 6" LAF/north.

Yeah, I think it's a little early to be making calls like that.. Because normally when that happens, our dreams get smashed into little bits..

[cyclone77]

Looks like a few inches of high ratio type snows may be all eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois gets. Still early though, but it seems like this thing gets further south each batch of runs. Another shift south and this area could get completely shut out. I'm okay with that given what we had with the last storm. It'd be nice to see the southern and easterners get in on some early action.

[Ajdos]

DTX:THERE IS A CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGHSUNDAY AS A WINTER STORM SYSTEM LIFTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ANDEASTERN GREAT LAKES. AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AS THE EXACTTRACK THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE HAS YET TO BE DETERMINED...ANDLARGE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST ARE STILL POSSIBLE. THE CURRENTFORECAST TRACK SUPPORTS MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOWFALL...WITHA CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION TOWARDS THE OHIO BORDER. IF THESYSTEM WERE TO TRACK FURTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS INDIANA ORMICHIGAN...THERE WOULD BE A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CHANGETO RAIN AND RESULT IN LIGHTER OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. THOSERESIDING IN OR PLANNING TRAVEL TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS WEEKENDARE ADVISED TO MONITOR THE FORECAST CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERALDAYS AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES.

[buckeye]

ILN throws props to the nw folks....(one thing about ILN, they can never be accused of having a backyard bias...lol)

regardless, i like that last paragraph

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

CONSENSUS IS BUILDING AMONG MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT A SIGNIFICANT

WINTER STORM WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND/OR LOWER GREAT

LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GEM MODELS TOOK

A DRAMATIC SHIFT SOUTH...PLACING THESE MODELS IN REASONABLE

AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF ENS...OP GFS AND GEFS MEAN SOLUTIONS WITH AN

OCCLUDING SFC LOW TRACKING SOMEWHERE WITHIN 200 KM OF THE OHIO

RIVER. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW

SOMEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES AND

A TROWAL DEVELOPS. WHERE THIS OCCURS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE

AND WHEN THE CYCLONE BEGINS THE OCCLUSION PROCESS...WHICH IS STILL

HIGHLY VARIABLE AMONG MED RANGE MODELS. SHOULD THIS LOW OCCLUDE

EARLIER...AS OFTEN SEEMS THE CASE WITH THESE TYPES OF

SYSTEMS...THEN A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK WOULD RESULT KEEPING

SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOCUSED OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA.

AHEAD OF THE LOW...A FEW DAYS OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS

TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN ACROSS MOST AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE

LOW TRACK...SO AT THIS TIME FREEZING RAIN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM

DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW...WHAT DOES APPEAR

INCREASINGLY CERTAIN IS THAT SNOW SHOWERS AND NORTHERLY WINDS

GUSTING NEAR 40 MPH WILL CREATE A PERIOD OF BLOWING SNOW AND

BITTER WIND CHILLS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY CONTINUING

INTO MONDAY. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A PARTICULARLY HIGH BLOWING

SNOW HAZARD WHEREVER THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLS...AND SIGNIFICANT

TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE POSSIBLE WHEREVER THIS OCCURS.

[Ajdos]

I really hope this storm ends up being a well deserved "big Momma" for a lot of us.

[A-L-E-K]

Euro went south, huh? Nice.

Now watch this thing become a strung out piece of crap that slides off the SE coast.

This event is starting to trigger a vague memory of a past event that started off too far north, trended way suppressed only to make a last minute (ie event was ongoing) shift northwest. Fond memories aside the model trends aren't good for Chicago and points north and west and if they keep up will be in the cold with 4 flurries zone pretty quick.

All that said and even though negativity is my specialty, I'm not seeing the far south track hinted at by the ensembles coming to be and still favor a track from the OK Panhandle to between Detroit and Cleveland. The movement almost due east from the Mississippi doesn't sit right.

FWIW were going to have the NAM to add to the fun pretty soon, yes it's terrible, but i've seen the 6z nogaps and 6z dgex posted so i guess it's fair play. By 84 hrs, the timing/speed/phase differences between the NAM and GFS are pretty large.

NAM

GFS

[daddylonglegs]

GFS this morning shows basically nothing here, although it looks like BOW could pick up a few.

[buckeye]

This event is starting to trigger a vague memory of a past event that started off too far north, trended way suppressed only to make a last minute (ie event was ongoing) shift northwest. Fond memories aside the model trends aren't good for Chicago and points north and west and if they keep up will be in the cold with 4 flurries zone pretty quick.

All that said and even though negativity is my specialty, I'm not seeing the far south track hinted at by the ensembles coming to be and still favor a track from the OK Panhandle to between Detroit and Cleveland. The movement almost due east from the Mississippi doesn't sit right.

FWIW were going to have the NAM to add to the fun pretty soon, yes it's terrible, but i've seen the 6z nogaps and 6z dgex posted so i guess it's fair play. By 84 hrs, the timing/speed/phase differences between the NAM and GFS are pretty large.

good catch. at 850 the nam has a double structured, weaker low, with less phasing...would probably translate into a more southeast solution. But as you stated, the 84hr nam might as well be the nocraps or dgex.

[Chicago WX]

This event is starting to trigger a vague memory of a past event that started off too far north, trended way suppressed only to make a last minute (ie event was ongoing) shift northwest. Fond memories aside the model trends aren't good for Chicago and points north and west and if they keep up will be in the cold with 4 flurries zone pretty quick.

All that said and even though negativity is my specialty, I'm not seeing the far south track hinted at by the ensembles coming to be and still favor a track from the OK Panhandle to between Detroit and Cleveland. The movement almost due east from the Mississippi doesn't sit right.

FWIW were going to have the NAM to add to the fun pretty soon, yes it's terrible, but i've seen the 6z nogaps and 6z dgex posted so i guess it's fair play. By 84 hrs, the timing/speed/phase differences between the NAM and GFS are pretty large.

Seen it happen a few times. Also have seen them start NW, and keep sliding SE into oblivion...although I don't think that'll happen with this storm. I was just kidding around about that scenario. And I agree that it'll turn ENE or NE at some point, question is where? Regardless, my feelings for MBY haven't changed...start as rain and transition over to wind whipped snow. How soon and how much TBD.

[Northern_IN_Wx]

As always lots of questions with this one. Interesting to note the potential phasing with the wave dropping into the Western Great Lakes. For all the reasons mentioned above, and climo, I would tend to agree that a farther northwest solution will end up verifying. An early guess would be northern IL, southeast WI, and much of lower MI receive a a significant snowfall (along/north of I-80). Wrap around advisory stuff across central IL into northern IN and northern OH. To me, this fits the December La Nina climate. Time will tell...still a while until this thing gets truly sampled.

[A-L-E-K]

Seen it happen a few times. Also have seen them start NW, and keep sliding SE into oblivion...although I don't think that'll happen with this storm. I was just kidding around about that scenario. And I agree that it'll turn ENE or NE at some point, question is where? Regardless, my feelings for MBY haven't changed...start as rain and transition over to wind whipped snow. How soon and how much TBD.

The start as rain and changeover to snow and still be missed southeast is not a scenario i'm all that familiar with. Can you think of any good analogs, you and Hoosier seem to have good memories for that kind of thing.

[michsnowfreak]

Its ironic. Winters like 2007-08 and 2008-09 saw near record snow all over the Great Lakes, but they also instilled a never ending fear in many of us about the NW trend. Models usually DO trend NW still, but not to the extent they used to. I really, really like where SE MI sits at the moment.

[buckeye]

Its ironic. Winters like 2007-08 and 2008-09 saw near record snow all over the Great Lakes, but they also instilled a never ending fear in many of us about the NW trend. Models usually DO trend NW still, but not to the extent they used to. I really, really like where SE MI sits at the moment.

exactly....we have ALL been burned by the nw trend, much moreso than a southeast trend. Last year was a whole different animal though, there was no nw trend....but then again last year was just wacky all around. When DC beats great lakes and midwest regions in snowfall, you know things are upside down.

[Chicago WX]

The start as rain and changeover to snow and still be missed southeast is not a scenario i'm all that familiar with. Can you think of any good analogs, you and Hoosier seem to have good memories for that kind of thing.

Off hand, no. I'll dig into it a little and report back later. Off to work.

[michsnowfreak]

exactly....we have ALL been burned by the nw trend, much moreso than a southeast trend. Last year was a whole different animal though, there was no nw trend....but then again last year was just wacky all around. When DC beats great lakes and midwest regions in snowfall, you know things are upside down.

True, true! And thats all we'll hear about for the next 5 winters when DC returns to 5-10" season TOTALS lol.