The_Global_Warmer Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 How can the nam and Gfs ignore the 300mb jet? the umket is still moving se? well after closing off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 nobody is out of this thing yet given its not being sampled fully. agree with Alek that the 12z GFS is a step in the right direction and that and the 12z NAM do have some pretty big differences on the placements of the different lows. given the insane jet behind this thing I dont see how a southern low wont try and dominant. another thing I have noticed is in the qpf map how there is a little area that has less qpf as this system comes through. most likely that area with less precip is due in part to subsidence behind the lead vort that drops snow tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 good to see the 12z suite clearing things up as we enter inside the 72 hr timeframe so far for my local area for sunday. gfs....rain on fropa, followed by flurries nam...rain on fropa followed by a change to snow and a few inches ukie...snowstorm good luck local mets with your forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 the US models are an unmitigated disaster for the eastern lakes of course, i use that terms loosely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 It's been very close, 00z being the closest run. I understand why it's developing the system where it is on the 12Z (basic Pettersen rule - s/w over a baroclinic boundary), but everything I've been taught tells me to look for the vort max just to the left and slightly ahead of the left exit region in a situation like this. Instead, we end up with a primary low that's completely detached from the jet forcing and under 30-40kt of 300mb flow? The 00z run may have been a bit overboard, but at least I could sit down and connect all the features together nicely. It's an incredibly jumbled mess on this run. My issue is the primary track as well considering where this thing tries to close off etc. As for 12z GFS.. meh.. As ale said it is somewhat a step in the right direction.. Still a bit of difference though.. NAM VS GFS.. NAM.. vs GFS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 :weenie: Well you might as well give the to HPC also PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 850 AM EST SUN DEC 05 2010 VALID 12Z THU DEC 09 2010 - 12Z SUN DEC 12 2010 GOOD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT CONTINUES THRU MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT LEAST THRU NEXT FRIDAY DAY 5. MAJOR DIFFERENCES AND CONTINUITY CHANGES BEGIN TO SHOW LATER DAY 5 FRIDAY AND CARRY THRU THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEGINNING DIFFERENCE IS THE HANDLING OF A FAST MOVING PAC SHORTWAVE COMING INTO THE WEST COAST IN THE LA NINA FLOW REGIME. THE OPERATIONAL 00Z AND 06Z GFS/DGEX AND 00Z ECMWF BUILD MORE EPAC RIDGING NWD ALONG THE WEST COAST DAY6 SAT ALLOWING FOR THIS SHORTWAVE TO DIG SOUTHEAST THRU THE PLAINS. BY DAY 7 SUNDAY BOTH 00Z/06Z GFS/DGEX AND ESPECIALLY 00Z ECMWF HAVE A VERY WELL DEVELOPED SHORTWAVE WITH CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW POTENTIAL. 00Z ECMWF THAN TAKES ANOTHER DIGGING SHORTWAVE SOUTHWARD THRU CENTRAL CANADA AND PHASES IT INTO THE OH VALLEY CLOSED LOW LATE DAY 7 AND DAY 8 CREATING A HYPER STORM WITH CONCURRENCE BY DGEX. THIS EXTREME SOLUTION IS SIMILAR TO THE GREAT STORM OF 25-26 NOV 1950. WHAT IS DISCONCERTING IS THAT CPC D+8 TO D+11 ANALOGS HAVE INDICATED A SYNOPTIC PATTERN MATCHING THOSE DATES FOR WEEKS INCLUDING TODAYS. THAT WAS ALSO A LA NINA YEAR WITH A STRONG NEGATIVE NAO. DUE TO DECREASING MODEL VERIFICATION AT THAT TIME WITH A SUDDEN CONTINUITY CHANGE IT IS PRUDENT TO STAY AWAY FOR THIS TYPE OF SOLUTION AT LEAST FOR NOW. WHAT IS AGREED UPON IS THE OVERALL PATTERN OF A RETURN OF WRN CONUS/ROCKY MTN RIDGING AND A DEEP ERN CONUS TROF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Well you might as well give the to HPC also PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 850 AM EST SUN DEC 05 2010 VALID 12Z THU DEC 09 2010 - 12Z SUN DEC 12 2010 GOOD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT CONTINUES THRU MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT LEAST THRU NEXT FRIDAY DAY 5. MAJOR DIFFERENCES AND CONTINUITY CHANGES BEGIN TO SHOW LATER DAY 5 FRIDAY AND CARRY THRU THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEGINNING DIFFERENCE IS THE HANDLING OF A FAST MOVING PAC SHORTWAVE COMING INTO THE WEST COAST IN THE LA NINA FLOW REGIME. THE OPERATIONAL 00Z AND 06Z GFS/DGEX AND 00Z ECMWF BUILD MORE EPAC RIDGING NWD ALONG THE WEST COAST DAY6 SAT ALLOWING FOR THIS SHORTWAVE TO DIG SOUTHEAST THRU THE PLAINS. BY DAY 7 SUNDAY BOTH 00Z/06Z GFS/DGEX AND ESPECIALLY 00Z ECMWF HAVE A VERY WELL DEVELOPED SHORTWAVE WITH CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW POTENTIAL. 00Z ECMWF THAN TAKES ANOTHER DIGGING SHORTWAVE SOUTHWARD THRU CENTRAL CANADA AND PHASES IT INTO THE OH VALLEY CLOSED LOW LATE DAY 7 AND DAY 8 CREATING A HYPER STORM WITH CONCURRENCE BY DGEX. THIS EXTREME SOLUTION IS SIMILAR TO THE GREAT STORM OF 25-26 NOV 1950. WHAT IS DISCONCERTING IS THAT CPC D+8 TO D+11 ANALOGS HAVE INDICATED A SYNOPTIC PATTERN MATCHING THOSE DATES FOR WEEKS INCLUDING TODAYS. THAT WAS ALSO A LA NINA YEAR WITH A STRONG NEGATIVE NAO. DUE TO DECREASING MODEL VERIFICATION AT THAT TIME WITH A SUDDEN CONTINUITY CHANGE IT IS PRUDENT TO STAY AWAY FOR THIS TYPE OF SOLUTION AT LEAST FOR NOW. WHAT IS AGREED UPON IS THE OVERALL PATTERN OF A RETURN OF WRN CONUS/ROCKY MTN RIDGING AND A DEEP ERN CONUS TROF. damn i'm good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 lol, UKIE has a closed H5 low over TN at 72. In comparison NAM at the same time has a closed H5 low over Chicago. How about we split the difference and go with a closed low over Indy? EDIT: which actually is the HPC low track from 0z last night ironically enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Goknights- Whats your call? How many feet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Ah, you almost had me, then I saw it was 4 days ago 12Z GFS makes sense through about 42 hours, not so much after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Ukie is just a bit different, from LEKing http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/2155-upstate-ny-north-country-winter-2010-thread-1/page__view__findpost__p__85327 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 nocraps getting "diggier" too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Daddy 2.5. Snowing really hard here right now not gonna last long but picked up a real quick inch to far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Well, talk about model madness!! Hopefully something will become clearer over the next 24 hours.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I am going to assume the ukmet is not going to happen or is not possible, guess it depends on how far this digs... NAM GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 FWIW...12Z 72hr JMA has the 500 L in southern MO with 1005 slp in e Alabama Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 GGEM: 1007 over central Iowa @ 48 and 1003 over eastern IL @ 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 GEM has a low in C. ILL fyi. Don't have the maps yet. Just what I heard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 thru 60 the ggem looks pretty close to ukie....trough a tad less deep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 GGEM: 1007 over central Iowa @ 48 and 1003 over eastern IL @ 60 sounds similar to the HPC low track, which is looking like a pretty good call right now considering how whacky things have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I wonder what "The Decider" will show next time, any guesses? Toward the NAM, the UKMET/GGEM, or back to the South? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I wonder what "The Decider" will show next time, any guesses? Toward the NAM, the UKMET/GGEM, or back to the South? Toward the Nam I bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 sounds similar to the HPC low track, which is looking like a pretty good call right now considering how whacky things have been. which is about where the uk has the low at the same timeframe...and both are still digging just crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 LOT busts out the dart board graphic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 GGEM on the MI/OH/IN borders at 72 hours. Looks like we have come full circle with the GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 996 over toledo...ggem says congrats hoosier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 GFS Ensemble mean 60/72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 GGEM on the MI/OH/IN borders at 72 hours. Looks like we have come full circle with the GEM. trough is really deep down to the gulf, but it closes a 500 low over detroit at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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