Stebo Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 It still seems like an odd solution for the NAM, with a lack of really strong support for the northern low to continue to dominate. The amount of jet energy and diffluence would strongly suggest something farther south. And the 06z GFS...well 60 dewpoints into LA and it fires no convection? Yeah I swear these models sometimes do things that just make you think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 RGEM at 48 = 1006 over DSM. That's further south than the NAM by about 75 miles. Frank the Tank getting cranked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 John Dee sticking to his previous thinking and forecast: The main rain/snow line looks to set up very close to I-80 across central IA, northern IL, IN and OH and the heaviest snows will fall from just to the north of that line and north around 150-200 miles or so. So northeast IA, southeast MN, far northern IL, IN and OH as well as the southern 2/3rds of WI and much of southern lower MI look to see as much as 4-8" fall later Saturday into Sunday, with some locales picking up more than 8" out of this event. For areas south of the main rain-snow line, it looks like primarily a rain event, possibly finishing as a bit of light snow. For the Northwoods of MN and WI, it just looks cold, with some LES possible in the Duluth and far NW WI area and perhaps some snow in the far southern reaches of the Northwoods of WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Here's the 9z ETA (for which the EE rule was originally based upon) sfc center is still south of Lk MI. Maybe the NAM is smoking crack and the 6z GFS caught some of the fumes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 It's the lead vort max that's causing all of the havoc we're seeing in the solutions... which is still in the data void of the Pacific, hence the ridiculous swings. Where this thing tracks is ultimately dependent on how strong the wave is after it gets through the cheese grater (Rockies), because if it's not that strong, then the left exit region of that 170kt jet max will overwhelm the forcing to the north and cause the southern track. So there's really two scenarios here, and we appear to be near the borderline, hence some of the struggling w/ two lows (like the Euro last night, for instance). Been reading your post ( and a few others ) and i agree alot with what you have had to say. Awesome post man. Now about that horrible NAM.. Does anyone realize ( you probably do as may a few others ) how close this NAM run is to a EPIC bomb in this region? Close this thing off SAY 100/150 miles s of where it attempts to AND with the tilt this model has at 84 hrs with that system from the south coming up ( would be drawn nnw thanks to closed low ) and things are gonna go BOOM in a very big way. Still plenty of time for that to happen as well especially considering it has yet to be sampled. And please no mention of past events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 NAM is way to far north for my liking. GFS rolling out now. Frank gets crushed of course on the NAM, he'll be digging out of 3 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 what a horror show the NAM is (edit- for some, for others its great! ) really enjoying the increased input from the mets in this subforum compared to previous years, thanks!.....(and the usual suspects as always) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 what a horror show the NAM is (edit- for some, for others its great! ) really enjoying the increased input from the mets in this subforum compared to previous years, thanks!.....(and the usual suspects as always) since they almost live in Canada they can head over to the super northern Americanwx boards, it's winter all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 RGEM 48hr 850 L....south of the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Noticeably more digging of the H5 s/w at 42 in SD in comparison to the same time at 6z. Should be south of the 6z run, although maybe not by a ton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 h5 is closed off at 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 48 at 12z 54 at 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Does anyone realize ( you probably do as may a few others ) how close this NAM run is to a EPIC bomb in this region? Close this thing off SAY 100/150 miles s of where it attempts to AND with the tilt this model has at 84 hrs with that system from the south coming up ( would be drawn nnw thanks to closed low ) and things are gonna go BOOM in a very big way. Still plenty of time for that to happen as well especially considering it has yet to be sampled. And please no mention of past events. It's been very close, 00z being the closest run. I understand why it's developing the system where it is on the 12Z (basic Pettersen rule - s/w over a baroclinic boundary), but everything I've been taught tells me to look for the vort max just to the left and slightly ahead of the left exit region in a situation like this. Instead, we end up with a primary low that's completely detached from the jet forcing and under 30-40kt of 300mb flow? The 00z run may have been a bit overboard, but at least I could sit down and connect all the features together nicely. It's an incredibly jumbled mess on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Are we seriously 2-3 days out? These models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Are we seriously 2-3 days out? These models... No kidding, next the GGEM will track through the south, just to bolster confidence more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Are we seriously 2-3 days out? These models... lol....it's a salad bar....pick your favorite model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I'm going to put the 12z GFS into the baby step in the right direction box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The event is gonna be within 48 hours, and none of these offices have a clue on what's going to happen. Hope for some agreement on the 0z runs. 12z GFS gets the low down to 1004 this run. Better then before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Are we seriously 2-3 days out? These models... This is a perfect example of why data and data initialization is king. Garbage in = Garbage out. It doesn't matter how good the resolution is, how good the parameterizations are, etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 lol...btw, its a 996 surface low and the i-70 corridor from IL to OH is getting hammered.....also looking at the isobars in the surface low it looks like it might actually be heading se I'll take one Ukie please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I'm going to put the 12z GFS into the baby step in the right direction box. I concur with the above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Daddy gfs about perfect track. Looks wierd but perfect. Also looks way cooler than the nam and probably decent ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 This is a perfect example of why data and data initialization is king. Garbage in = Garbage out. It doesn't matter how good the resolution is, how good the parameterizations are, etc... I guess I should put my faith in the EURO then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 lol...btw, its a 996 surface low and the i-70 corridor from IL to OH is getting hammered.....also looking at the isobars in the surface low it looks like it might actually be heading se I'll take one Ukie please The ul s/w is still digging at 72. It looks like it's about to spawn an Appalachian bomb, just too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The ul s/w is still digging at 72. It looks like it's about to spawn an Appalachian bomb, just too far north. hmmm, wasn't Nov 1950 showing up in storm analogs the last couple weeks for this period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 At least the 12z GFS is getting a more meteorologically sound solution. It is firing convection where the jet is creating the best diffluence, and as a result the surface is a touch farther south, where you'd expect it. The Ukie makes sense too, driving the 500 low southeast where the jet energy is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 hmmm, wasn't Nov 1950 showing up in storm analogs the last couple weeks for this period :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 lol, UKIE has a closed H5 low over TN at 72. In comparison NAM at the same time has a closed H5 low over Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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