Stevo6899 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 why is it closing off?The big storm splits energies and the main low is unable to dig further south because thats where the other energy is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I said earlier in this thread that the low will end up tracking through northern lower Michigan and look where it's headed on this run of the nam. I'm not seeing the i-80 paralyzing blizzard....anyone else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Did they put BowMe on suicide watch yet? even with such a pathetic snow output....it still manages to donut hole columbus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 We have to remember that 24 hour storm totals of 30+ cm (over a foot) are exceedingly rare- and always have been- in Ottawa and Montreal, regardless of what some people say about them "always" being buried with snow back in the "old days". Honestly, one person posting on the CBC site last week said that when he was growing up in Ottawa in the early to mid 80s, there was always deep snowcover before Halloween and how the heavy rain on December 1st was therefore "proof" that winters aren't what they used to be be. I checked the Environment Canada data and could find no such year either in the 80s or the 70s! The only snowy Halloween I could find was halloween 1988 when 29cm fell the week before, but largely melted before the 31st. People's memories are very selective about the weather and they tend to remember the extremes. Also, there were different snow clearing techniques back in the old days which is why so many of the old photographs of montreal and Ottawa show snow piles measured in many feet. I'm sure people who are kids today will always remember the winter of 2007-2008 and how they waited for the schoolbus in knee deep snow and in their minds, as they get older, that will be the way "all" winters were. 2007-2008 was the third snowiest winter in Ottawa since Canadian Confederation in 1867. Unfortunately we can't expect that we'll get another big snow year just three years later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Well might as well give Minneapolis and all the other cities that got hammered with the last 3 storms some more snow! May I direct you to this thread where you can pitch a fit about missing out on this storm. Some of our members have already taken advantage of it. http://www.americanw...mplaint-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 May I direct you to this thread where you can pitch a fit about missing out on this storm. Some of our members have already taken advantage of it. http://www.americanw...mplaint-thread/ FTW 12z NAM screams nasty flash freeze event, like real nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 We have to remember that 24 hour storm totals of 30+ cm (over a foot) are exceedingly rare- and always have been- in Ottawa and Montreal, regardless of what some people say about them "always" being buried with snow back in the "old days". Honestly, one person posting on the CBC site last week said that when he was growing up in Ottawa in the early to mid 80s, there was always deep snowcover before Halloween and how the heavy rain on December 1st was therefore "proof" that winters aren't what they used to be be. I checked the Environment Canada data and could find no such year either in the 80s or the 70s! The only snowy Halloween I could find was halloween 1988 when 29cm fell the week before, but largely melted before the 31st. People's memories are very selective about the weather and they tend to remember the extremes. Also, there were different snow clearing techniques back in the old days which is why so many of the old photographs of montreal and Ottawa show snow piles measured in many feet. I'm sure people who are kids today will always remember the winter of 2007-2008 and how they waited for the schoolbus in knee deep snow and in their minds, as they get older, that will be the way "all" winters were. 2007-2008 was the third snowiest winter in Ottawa since Canadian Confederation in 1867. Unfortunately we can't expect that we'll get another big snow year just three years later. Wow, you took words right out of my mouth. Peoples fictional memories of winters past are so false its sickening! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I'm not seeing the i-80 paralyzing blizzard....anyone else? We don't learn. if the Euro has a northern solution a few days out, you might as well bank on all other models eventually following suit. Then, after that, you have to add about 50-100 miles to the northwest and that will give you your track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbs Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I'm not seeing the i-80 paralyzing blizzard....anyone else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 is that a secondary low on the NAM 72 developing in NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Saukville says all rain for him i'm getting a foot+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 hmmm, the nam slows that trough by going negative enough that OH has a real nice changeover to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 May I direct you to this thread where you can pitch a fit about missing out on this storm. Some of our members have already taken advantage of it. http://www.americanw...mplaint-thread/ Good stuff man! At least with the way to storm is shaping up, should make for a relatively good week for my trip. Cold, but no snow or ice along I-55.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 We don't learn. if the Euro has a northern solution a few days out, you might as well bank on all other models eventually following suit. Then, after that, you have to add about 50-100 miles to the northwest and that will give you your track. I'm not sold this one is done evolving yet. The NAM closes off the northern 850 really quick, i wouldn't be surprised to see it take a little longer allowing the southern piece trying to get going around hr54 to have a little more influence. All that said at this stage the Euro deserves some credit for being the most consistent in favoring the northern low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 hmmm, the nam slows that trough by going negative enough that OH has a real nice changeover to snow Yep, would give us maybe 3 or 4 inches of windblown snow on the back end. I'd take it! I don't see it happening because it almost never does, but I'd take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 haven't seen soundings but it would appear eastern OH gets clocked pretty nicely this run..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Yep, would give us maybe 3 or 4 inches of windblown snow on the back end. I'd take it! I don't see it happening because it almost never does, but I'd take it. this is the winter that if you say it can't happen because it never has before... ....it probably will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 9z SREF support for the NAM still pretty sketchy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Yep, would give us maybe 3 or 4 inches of windblown snow on the back end. I'd take it! I don't see it happening because it almost never does, but I'd take it. gotta love these model runs... now we're back to the possibility of a snowy sunday, but for an entirely different reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Daddy it looks we are going to be riding a fine line of a lot snow or else a slop fest and a dry slot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I can't remember too many times when models start heading north that it can be stopped. Luck of the draw, I suppose. Was really looking forward to a system snow instead of the LE, but I'm not gonna be bitter. I'm a damn liar! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Yep, would give us maybe 3 or 4 inches of windblown snow on the back end. I'd take it! I don't see it happening because it almost never does, but I'd take it. looking at text output....you're right. pobably between .3-.45 frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 looking at text output....you're right. pobably between .3-.45 frozen Problem is, what inevitably happens in later runs is the back side dries up into oblivion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Problem is, what inevitably happens in later runs is the back side dries up into oblivion. true, unless we get more of a wave or stronger storm to form along the apps or the TN valley....which actually the euro at 00z was very bullish on. The nam is trying to get something going as well. We need that trough to go hardcore negative and it would pull anything that did form in the south further west. grasping, but at this point everything is on the table..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Goknights- I don't like it sloppy... lets just look at the GFS and pretend the other models don't exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 jay, this is what i was referring to with the euro. As i said we need that trough to go more neg and that low to be closer to WV....but the idea is there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 jay, this is what i was referring to with the euro. As i said we need that trough to go more neg and that low to be closer to WV....but the idea is there Well, much more difficult to do but it's all we've got at this point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Well, much more difficult to do but it's all we've got at this point! yup...at least something to watch for. The ukie and gem both end up with a low in KY and WV.....so who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 It's the lead vort max that's causing all of the havoc we're seeing in the solutions... which is still in the data void of the Pacific, hence the ridiculous swings. Where this thing tracks is ultimately dependent on how strong the wave is after it gets through the cheese grater (Rockies), because if it's not that strong, then the left exit region of that 170kt jet max will overwhelm the forcing to the north and cause the southern track. So there's really two scenarios here, and we appear to be near the borderline, hence some of the struggling w/ two lows (like the Euro last night, for instance). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I'm not sold this one is done evolving yet. The NAM closes off the northern 850 really quick, i wouldn't be surprised to see it take a little longer allowing the southern piece trying to get going around hr54 to have a little more influence. All that said at this stage the Euro deserves some credit for being the most consistent in favoring the northern low. It still seems like an odd solution for the NAM, with a lack of really strong support for the northern low to continue to dominate. The amount of jet energy and diffluence would strongly suggest something farther south. And the 06z GFS...well 60 dewpoints into LA and it fires no convection? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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