Ajdos Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 6zs gfs and name agreed somewhat on the track.. so I guess that's the Euro was right after all with the further nw shift. The dynamics of this system do not impress me at all atm, and it does indeed take this particular track, I dont see anyone getting more then 6 inches. The storm has no moisture inflow since it's to far north, if it fallows yesterdays 00z, that track is usually and historically ideal for good snows, especially across southern MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 he's useless for storm tracking, why do you pay attention to him? Moneyman has a better graps of what's going down. ??? OKAYY, well maybe they see something different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 6zs gfs and name agreed somewhat on the track.. so I guess that's the Euro was right after all with the further nw shift. The dynamics of this system do not impress me at all atm, and it does indeed take this particular track, I dont see anyone getting more then 6 inches. The storm has no moisture inflow since it's to far north, if it fallows yesterdays 00z, that track is usually and historically ideal for good snows, especially across southern MI. you're going to be wrong on multiple accounts. It's not a bombing cutter, but it's plenty dynamic. As for no one getting more than 6 inches.... but seriously there will be plenty of 6 inch reports from Iowa-Minny-Wisconsin and into Michigan, maybe Northern Illinois and NW Indiana as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 you're going to be wrong on multiple accounts. It's not a bombing cutter, but it's plenty dynamic. As for no one getting more than 6 inches.... but seriously there will be plenty of 6 inch reports from Iowa-Minny-Wisconsin and into Michigan, maybe Northern Illinois and NW Indiana as well. LOL, A few days ago it sure was, and I was like YEY 2 feet of snow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 LOL, A few days ago it sure was, and I was like YEY 2 feet of snow!! not really and you had no reason to be like "YEY 2 feet of snow!!" 120+ hrs out when not a single solution hinted at as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 not really and you had no reason to be like "YEY 2 feet of snow!!" 120+ hrs out when not a single solution hinted at as much. Being a little sarcastic here bud, but honestly this will turn into a Nowcasting storm, a day out! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 9z SREF mean storm track. To note, I've always believed that they, like most models, garner more accuracy the closer we get to storm time. Regardless, fairly north and notice the shading to the NW. Probably some members really far to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 HPC's take on the track . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 9z SREF mean storm track. To note, I've always believed that they, like most models, garner more accuracy the closer we get to storm time. Regardless, fairly north and notice the shading to the NW. Probably some members really far to the NW. Well might as well give Minneapolis and all the other cities that got hammered with the last 3 storms some more snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 HPC's take on the track . How old is this map? EDIT; 0z runs from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 How old is this map? Look in the lower left corner of the map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 HPC's take on the track . Pretty wild spread amongst each cluster. I have to imagine it shifts north some if the 12z runs do what i suspect. And it's a weenie comment that is made so often, but the track they have follows the southern edge of the snowpack left from the previous storm pretty well. Also the 12/12 plots are split with some around chicago and some well south, probably showing the split amongst which low the models favor becoming dominant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Dangit, someone beat me to it. Try this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 These models are a joke. I don't know why I wasted so much time the last few days analyzing this system when I should have been studying for finals. The way things are going I get the feeling I'm going to want to get hammered this weekend. Who's with me? And Ive got news for you, the models will be doing this all winter. The next 4 months will be one after another. Some storms will be followed closely for a week and never materialize, others will come out of nowhere. In the end it will probably be a good winter, but too much model watching saps some of the fun out of it. See 2007-08. Record or near-record snow over most of the Great Lakes, but still PLENTY of stress during the winter due to the models. Its after winters over that you look back at it and say, wow, that WAS special. Not when its actually happening. And thats a shame. Just enjoy tonights snow and worry about this storm Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Track discussions aside this storm is going to have a pretty wicked baroclinic zone. Someone should still do very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 And speaking of the baroclinic zone--HPC discussion for this event MIDWEST/GTLKS/UPR OH VLY DAY 3...THE STRONG SHRTWV WILL EMERGE ONTO THE PLAINS LATE FRI WITH A SFCREFLECTION QUICKLY DEEPENING AS IT REACHES THE MID MS VLYOVERNIGHT. THIS HIGHLY BAROCLINIC SYS WILL INVOLVE A HEALTHY COLDSECTOR WITH SIGNIFICANT MSTR WRAPPING INTO IT AS THE SHRTWV CARVESOUT A DEEP NEG-TILT TROF THRU THE ERN CONUS. STILL MANYUNCERTAINTIES HERE... AND HPC TOOK A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VERYFAST GFS AND SLOW NAM SEEN IN THE UKMET/UKMET/SREF HERE. RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL BE NEAR CHICAGO WITH LIGHT/BRIEF FZRA POSSIBLEIN BETWEEN. COLD QPF MAXIMA IS PROGGED TO BE FROM NORTHEAST IATHRU CNTRL WI WHERE UP TO 8 INCHES IS FORECAST THRU 12Z SUN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 wow 12z nam looks way north again.....850 about to close off in s. MN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 he's useless for storm tracking, why do you pay attention to him? Moneyman has a better graps of what's going down. I agree. Jb is not good at storm tracking, but is reasonably good at overall pattern recognition. I don't see how this is going to be a paralyzing blizzard for the lower lakes, unless he considers 8' to be paralyzing (and I'm not including lake effect here). he has to remember that those of us up here have fairly high benchmarks when it comes to blizzards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 wow 12z nam looks way north again.....850 about to close off in s. MN yes it will but you can see a southern low trying to get going down around OK/TX, which has been the battle for some time. I agree. Jb is not good at storm tracking, but is reasonably good at overall pattern recognition. I don't see how this is going to be a paralyzing blizzard for the lower lakes, unless he considers 8' to be paralyzing (and I'm not including lake effect here). he has to remember that those of us up here have fairly high benchmarks when it comes to blizzards. I do. And i think someone gets more than 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 FWIW this has been a real fun storm to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 NAM way north 1002 low south central WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 NAM going to be nice for MSP on eastward. Could be a speed issue, but it's better defined with the 700 and 850 lows when comparing to the 0z run at 12z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 yes it will but you can see a southern low trying to get going down around OK/TX, which has been the battle for some time. I do. And i think someone gets more than 8". yup its a race low is still inTX at 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 FWIW this has been a real fun storm to track. Definitely.. I still think that anything is possible, especially since the system is just now coming onshore.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 NAM going to be nice for MSP on eastward. Could be a speed issue, but it's better defined with the 700 and 850 lows when comparing to the 0z run at 12z Saturday. Thunderstorm threat evolving for Chicago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 NAM 12Z 54 & 60 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 the northern low dominates....looks like a lot of rain ahead of a trailing arctic front for most south of WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 the 500 closing off is the kiss of death....trough stops digging and storm drives east with trailing coldfront. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Did they put BowMe on suicide watch yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I said earlier in this thread that the low will end up tracking through northern lower Michigan and look where it's headed on this run of the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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