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Dec 11-13 MW/Lakes/OV Snow Event? Part II

Chicago Storm

By Chicago Storm,
in Central/Western States

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

Kind of weird how I get rocked and you guys get screwed. EURO must blow up the storm on the EC and send some CCB my way. Anyways, I'll enjoy it until 12z.

I just don't get it, NAM good track = rain GFS ok track = rain/mix GGEM/Euro split/south and meh snows.

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BowMeHunter

BowMeHunter

Posted
Posted

NAM had a good track and rain, but GFS, with an ok track looked like snow. So the Euro is snow for us?

Dont let these models ruin the enjoyment of the first blanket of snow which should come tomorrow night.

Euro gives you about x5 the .2 today.. compact them both and the grass is still suntanning.. I'm throwing this Euro out :scooter::lmao:

Dam model is almost a big of headache as being married except it's cheaper.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

Euro gives you about x5 the .2 today.. compact them both and the grass is still suntanning.. I'm throwing this Euro out :scooter::lmao:

I saw the Euro qpf now. Looks like 0.25"+ still, but a big hole of just 0.10-0.25" in OH. The whole thing is just ridiculous with the models. If you check the GEM ptype, it starts as rain into central WI, but by the time it hits here its pink (ice/sleet) then snow. The GFS tracks the low overtop of us, and precip is mostly snow, while the NAM tracks the low south of us, looks PERFECT, but its rain.

As said, ridiculous. And I hope everyone sees what model watching does to us. If it shows what we want, a great scenario for our backyard, we worry that its "never good to be in the bullseye XX hours out", or "it will change". If it shows a crappy scenario for us, we worry because, well, it shows a crappy scenario for us. None of us can ever win (until the storm is here).

Oh well, 1-2" of snow tomorrow night, then going up to Frankenmuth Friday. Will worry about this storm Saturday.

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BowMeHunter

BowMeHunter

Posted
Posted

I saw the Euro qpf now. Looks like 0.25"+ still, but a big hole of just 0.10-0.25" in OH. The whole thing is just ridiculous with the models. If you check the GEM ptype, it starts as rain into central WI, but by the time it hits here its pink (ice/sleet) then snow. The GFS tracks the low overtop of us, and precip is mostly snow, while the NAM tracks the low south of us, looks PERFECT, but its rain.

As said, ridiculous. And I hope everyone sees what model watching does to us. If it shows what we want, a great scenario for our backyard, we worry that its "never good to be in the bullseye XX hours out", or "it will change". If it shows a crappy scenario for us, we worry because, well, it shows a crappy scenario for us. None of us can ever win (until the storm is here).

Oh well, 1-2" of snow tomorrow night, then going up to Frankenmuth Friday. Will worry about this storm Saturday.

Weird.. my euro shows 0-.10 for all of MI away from lake MI....

Agree about what it does to us.. specially in early dec tracking... Climo is not our friend either.

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Trent

Trent

Posted
Posted

I saw the Euro qpf now. Looks like 0.25"+ still, but a big hole of just 0.10-0.25" in OH. The whole thing is just ridiculous with the models. If you check the GEM ptype, it starts as rain into central WI, but by the time it hits here its pink (ice/sleet) then snow. The GFS tracks the low overtop of us, and precip is mostly snow, while the NAM tracks the low south of us, looks PERFECT, but its rain.

As said, ridiculous. And I hope everyone sees what model watching does to us. If it shows what we want, a great scenario for our backyard, we worry that its "never good to be in the bullseye XX hours out", or "it will change". If it shows a crappy scenario for us, we worry because, well, it shows a crappy scenario for us. None of us can ever win (until the storm is here).

Oh well, 1-2" of snow tomorrow night, then going up to Frankenmuth Friday. Will worry about this storm Saturday.

It's just too hard for me to get worked up about this until Friday or Saturday, despite quite a bit of local media hype already.

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Omahawx

Omahawx

Posted
Posted

NWS in Kansas City mentions this;

IN QUITE THE REVERSAL OF FORTUNE...THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS HAS AGAIN

BROKE ANY BRIEF RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY SATURDAY...EXCEPT THIS TIME

REPRESENTS A SOLUTION CHARACTERIZED AS AN OUTLIER TO THE NORTH AND A

MUCH FLATTER AND FASTER WAVE DEPICTION...BEFORE WEAKER AMPLIFICATION

TO THE EAST. ECMWF AND OPERATIONAL GEM HAVE CARRIED BETTER AGREEMENT

WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM (ALBEIT HAVE EDGED TOWARDS

THE NORTH)...YET STILL OSCILLATE WITH DEPTH AND TIMING OF

INTENSIFICATION.

BUT IN GENERAL

STRONGLY SUPPORTS THE SOLUTION ADVERTISED BY THE 00Z ECMWF.

THEREFORE...HAVE ALMOST ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED THIS GFS RUN (AND

ASSOCIATED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE OUTPUT FOR THAT MATTER) FOR THE

FORECAST PERIOD BEYOND FRIDAY NIGHT...RELYING MORE ON ECMWF AND THE

DEEPER COLDER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

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A-L-E-K

A-L-E-K

Posted
Posted

lol, what a wild swing. So much bashing of those saying it would come back north yesterday, so much crow eating.

Anyways still plenty of time for future shifts north or south. What's funny is my practical weather looks the same as it did 2-3 days ago. Rain to snow. :arrowhead:

oh and 6z GFS :yikes: Also worth mentioning how close the Euro solution a couple days back was closest to what we're seeing now.

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A-L-E-K

A-L-E-K

Posted
Posted

Yes alek amazing how other than one run the euro has been on this north bandwagon all along and now others are hopping on for the ride

It's not just that it has been north witht the final low position most often, but early on it also had the idea of just bowling a low through the plains into the lakes (as opposed to lifting one NE out of the S. Plains), which is very close to what we're seeing now.

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Stevo6899

Stevo6899

Posted
Posted

The 0z NAM has the storm digging further south before strenghtening and moving north. The 6z didnt dig as far south and strengthens right under chicago. It's a small but very intense storm. Very compact. I dont know if people remember the new years eve storm a few years back, but it dropped as much as 2 inches on detroit and 18 inches about 60-80 miles northwest. Doesnt look to be the powerhouse we thought but someone from chicago to milwaukee to saginaw to detroit is still fair game.

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted

i don't think i have ever been more confused about a system only 3 days out in terms of what to expect. Clearly rain here at the on set, but then what??? What's with the euro popping a stronger low in central VA then it has in the midwest? Then you got the ukie that looked like it was about to send a low to detroit at 72 hrs but instead it ends up in KY? The solidly consistent gem suddenly flips to a track thru KY. The nam and gfs look like glorified clippers moving thru the lakes...yet...all these models seem to want to keep thicknesses pretty cold well south of the low :huh:

wtf????

oh, and by the way.....JB this morning: "paralyzing blizzard in the 1-80 corridor from Nebraska to the lakes" Says euro nails it and has the idea he always thought would occur. I find that interesting considering yesterday he specifically mentioned columbus for good snows. sheeeesh

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A-L-E-K

A-L-E-K

Posted
Posted

i don't think i have ever been more confused about a system only 3 days out in terms of what to expect. Clearly rain here at the on set, but then what??? What's with the euro popping a stronger low in central VA then it has in the midwest? Then you got the ukie that looked like it was about to send a low to detroit at 72 hrs but instead it ends up in KY? The solidly consistent gem suddenly flips to a track thru KY. The nam and gfs look like glorified clippers moving thru the lakes...yet...all these models seem to want to keep thicknesses pretty cold well south of the low :huh:

wtf????

oh, and by the way.....JB this morning: "paralyzing blizzard in the 1-80 corridor from Nebraska to the lakes" Says euro nails it and has the idea he always thought would occur. I find that interesting considering yesterday he specifically mentioned columbus for good snows. sheeeesh

he's useless for storm tracking, why do you pay attention to him? Moneyman has a better graps of what's going down.

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Ajdos

Ajdos

Posted
Posted

The 0z NAM has the storm digging further south before strenghtening and moving north. The 6z didnt dig as far south and strengthens right under chicago. It's a small but very intense storm. Very compact. I dont know if people remember the new years eve storm a few years back, but it dropped as much as 2 inches on detroit and 18 inches about 60-80 miles northwest. Doesnt look to be the powerhouse we thought but someone from chicago to milwaukee to saginaw to detroit is still fair game.

WE gon end up with a dud! :D

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