dilly84 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 G'night all, Good luck on the 12z runs tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 78hrs: Elongated 1008MB low from S. Michigan down into AL/MS. Looks like the surface reflection would probably be int he SW. Michigan/N. Indiana area. Snow from C. Wisconsin up into Northern Lower Michigan. 84hrs: Elongated 1004MB low from SE. Michigan down into GA. Surface reflection likely in NW. Ohio. Nice hit for C. Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 weaker, faster, north/south... whats it doing loops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Well I'm pulling the plug, Wake me up when we actually have snow flying, which if La nina works out like forecasted, it may not be till NEXT december.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 at 12z Duluth, Marquette, Central Canada will be in the cross hairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I's say no panic-casting for another 24hrs though... remember sampling on all these runs is still poor. But not looking the best based on Euro if you're not in WI, IA, or MN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 84hrs: Elongated 1004MB low from SE. Michigan down into GA. Surface reflection likely in NW. Ohio. Nice hit for C. Michigan. 90hrs: Elongated 1000MB low from Lake Erie down into the Carolinas. Best precip over Lake Huron. 96hrs: Elongated 996Mb low from S. NY down intot he Carolinas. Decent hit for Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 66hrs: 1008MB SLP in NE. Iowa. Nice hit for MSP. Any idea on the QPF for DLH? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I's say no panic-casting for another 24hrs though... remember sampling on all these runs is still poor. But not looking the best based on Euro if you're not in WI, IA, or MN... the EE rule in effect... it's over.... i swear as soon as I graduate I'm leaving southern Illinois! course watch then we'll actually get snow storms before February then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Wow. It's crazy to have so many wildly different scenarios when we're down to about 60hrs out. That's about as much model disagreement you can have at this time range. If I was writing an AFD I wouldn't even know where to begin. The NAM just has a more realistic look to it compared to all the other 00z runs. I know, it's hard to believe the NAM would at this range, but that's just my opinion. Hopefully by this time tomorrow night there's much better consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I'd be surprised actually to see that Low go that far North, especially considering the clipper track/baroclinic zone/jet max position. Then again, Tomorrow is another day.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Great, well it's clearly choking on the southern low, and allowing the northern weak energy to prevail. This thing can't get inland fast enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoeWx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 This is for everyone form S/E Michigan ROFL Those are great ! Too Funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 90hrs: Elongated 1000MB low from Lake Erie down into the Carolinas. Best precip over Lake Huron. 96hrs: Elongated 996Mb low from S. NY down intot he Carolinas. Decent hit for Toronto. 102hrs: Sub 988MB SLP in the Mid-Atl. Still some wrap around for Toronto. Edit: Continues through 108hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 90hrs: Elongated 1000MB low from Lake Erie down into the Carolinas. Best precip over Lake Huron. 96hrs: Elongated 996Mb low from S. NY down intot he Carolinas. Decent hit for Toronto. Thanks for that reassurance. Track seems to be similar to 12z, just faster and weaker. Haven't really had any model demonstrate an extreme NW track yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Great, well it's clearly choking on the southern low, and allowing the northern weak energy to prevail. This thing can't get inland fast enough. lol at this rate it'll vanish into nothing, but a fropa, great another week of highs in the 20's and ground as bare as a baby's rear... Only for it to warm up in time for it to rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 the EE rule in effect... it's over.... i swear as soon as I graduate I'm leaving southern Illinois! course watch then we'll actually get snow storms before February then... well the nam and Euro are far far far apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Hopefully the new Euro ensembles slap some sense into the op run. That's just too bizarre of a change to buy. I know I sound like a broken record, but with a jet structure like that I can't not see something big blowing up in the middle and eastern part of the country. Not this faggy strung out surface reflection. Time will tell! Edit: Wow, I need to proofread before I post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 well the nam and Euro are far far far apart. i was meaning more the track idea, plus the nam at 72... NOT the most reliable, now the Euro at 72 on the other hand.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Clearly we're still having issues with the degree of deepening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 Thanks for that reassurance. Track seems to be similar to 12z, just faster and weaker. Haven't really had any model demonstrate an extreme NW track yet. About 1" of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 lol at this rate it'll vanish into nothing, but a fropa, great another week of highs in the 20's and ground as bare as a baby's rear... Only for it to warm up in time for it to rain! You average 12" of snow...what do you expect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 You average 12" of snow...what do you expect? ohh it's not that, it's the it shows something for what a good week, then at the LAST minute it decides, oh no snow for you.... Plus the fact that being 20-25 for the high and no snow on the ground makes this guy a little cranky.... plus the stress of finals too... and I still feel that 12" number is rigged somehow or something.... I mean you don't go from 12" here to 20" in Charleston for an average and it be right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Cyclone, I hate being an IMBY type forecaster on a storm like this especially but I think if we go with some type of compromise between the models we are sitting pretty. I think someone near or just NW of us is going to be getting some really decent snows out of this. But I'm not really ready to start pinpointing a specific area because there is still to much uncertainty... but someone from DVN's CWA up into LSE/Wrn MKE/into MSP/GRB and points Eastward into Central Lower Michigan will make out well I think. Moisture availability, mid level circulations, cold air leading to some decent ratio's, forcing, etc... all spells some 8"+ amounts to be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 About 1" of QPF. No sleep tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Sigh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Euro gives me 33 and rain Anyways, it won't be until Friday we get a real handle on this thing. I was hoping the EURO would stick to its stronger track, but oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 Any idea on the QPF for DLH? Thanks! 0.25-0.50". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Sigh... Kind of weird how I get rocked and you guys get screwed. EURO must blow up the storm on the EC and send some CCB my way. Anyways, I'll enjoy it until 12z. Looks like it might: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 0.25-0.50". Not bad for me! Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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