Sidewinder Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Need it to keep going north and bring some severe wx to IND. If snow is out, we may as well go for broke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 as i said if i lose the ukie, it's the nail in the coffin. At least I won't be tempted to stay up for the euro and can finally get some work done tomorrow.... plus, the one concillation will be reading the spin cycles at accublunder tomorrow...should be good stuff Unbelievable! Looks to be a bust for everyone from Ohio to Toronto to Ottawa. We may get a bit of moderate snow at the start, then that's it. Hardly a road clogging storm. You know what this reminds me of? The February 2009 "storm" that models were originally depicting to be the blizzard of the winter, but which fizzled into nothing. JB and Margusity will be in defense mode come tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 thats the image from the 12z run L.B. here is the 0z image at 84hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I have a theory on this, I call it the media attention rule. As soon as the news media catches on to HEY something is coming, the models go uh-huh not so fast..... Look at the models till today, showed it being a nice storm closeby, then all of a sudden the news media pays attention, then sharp left turn signal, and when something doesn't get hyped (example the clipper last weekend) it overproduces, at least in spots... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Good luck to those staying up to see if the Euro holds serve. I've already stayed up too long, and have to be to work in a few hours. The red flags are there on the 00z op and the 12z ensembles, so I'll be very curious to see what I wake up to. I'm guessing you'll be waking up to phone calls and demands... Have Fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Unbelievable! Looks to be a bust for everyone from Ohio to Toronto to Ottawa. We may get a bit of moderate snow at the start, then that's it. Hardly a road clogging storm. You know what this reminds me of? The February 2009 "storm" that models were originally depicting to be the blizzard of the winter, but which fizzled into nothing. JB and Margusity will be in defense mode come tomorrow. To be fair, wasn't JB farther north? I thought I remember seeing something about him focusing on Chicago to Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Unbelievable! Looks to be a bust for everyone from Ohio to Toronto to Ottawa. We may get a bit of moderate snow at the start, then that's it. Hardly a road clogging storm. You know what this reminds me of? The February 2009 "storm" that models were originally depicting to be the blizzard of the winter, but which fizzled into nothing. JB and Margusity will be in defense mode come tomorrow. Don't jump off the ledge yet. NAM and SREFS looked pretty good. The 12z GGEM/EURO were also decent hits. It's only the GFS that's been struggling with this anemic looking storm, whether it be tracking it through the Tenn. Valley, or through the Lakes now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Unbelievable! Looks to be a bust for everyone from Ohio to Toronto to Ottawa. We may get a bit of moderate snow at the start, then that's it. Hardly a road clogging storm. You know what this reminds me of? The February 2009 "storm" that models were originally depicting to be the blizzard of the winter, but which fizzled into nothing. JB and Margusity will be in defense mode come tomorrow. Omg can we please never talk about February 09 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 thats the image from the 12z run L.B. here is the 0z image at 84hrs nuts, I wasnt paying attention! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Omg can we please never talk about February 09 again. If this storm doesn't come to fruition, the curse of Feb 09 will still be intact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 had to save some images off this 0z NAM run as its almost perfect for me.. sitting in the bullseye.. sfc low goes right over indy..perfect track tons of ascent going on..would love to see an 81hr image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I'll be honest, after looking at the models today I really don't know what to think, the major major swings back and forth are just astounding. I really have sympathy for the NWS mets, because this thing is getting closer and closer with changes hourly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 nuts, I wasnt paying attention! thats ok, a better run for both of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I now only need about 60 to 90 miles to the north(west), and hopefully a lot of lake effect (for the max impact), but I'll take these solutions as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 gfs lights the torches by mid to late next week..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoeWx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 GFS 00z o.O... What just happened ?! Seriously. I don't think I've never seen a more sloppy run ?! http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_072m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 NAM actually wouldn't be that bad here. Sure the heaviest band would be north but not by far. Any further north corrections though and it's axesmiley time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 gfs lights the torches by mid to late next week..... Get the pool ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 GFS 00z o.O... What just happened ?! Seriously. I don't think I've never seen a more sloppy run ?! http://www.nco.ncep....fs_slp_072m.gif Not for Southeastern Wisconsin:) That said, there's no way this doesn't shift several more times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 gfs lights the torches by mid to late next week..... Before the great Roger Smith storm? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/2627-get-ready-for-the-great-mwgl-storm-of-dec-19-21/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Before the great Roger Smith storm? http://www.americanw...m-of-dec-19-21/ You know the interesting thing is there has been a system out in that range on the GFS for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 JB UPDATE: WEDNESDAY 10 PM EURO IS MY HERO ON THE COMING STORM. The Euro further north and stronger solution is in line with the thinking I have on this. The implications are for a paralyzing blizzard in the I-80 corridor from Nebraska to the lower lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 You know the interesting thing is there has been a system out in that range on the GFS for a while. I think the euro has something out on dec17/18 not quiet the same time frame, but there's a inland runner of somesort.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Unbelievable! Looks to be a bust for everyone from Ohio to Toronto to Ottawa. We may get a bit of moderate snow at the start, then that's it. Hardly a road clogging storm. You know what this reminds me of? The February 2009 "storm" that models were originally depicting to be the blizzard of the winter, but which fizzled into nothing. JB and Margusity will be in defense mode come tomorrow. no reason to call it a bust at this time. If this storm doesn't come to fruition, the curse of Feb 09 will still be intact. yeah, lol, havent really had a trackable storm since. just these wierd retrograde storms. it is a curse. but its also why i dont consider a storm to be in existence until its on all the models less than 100 hours out. feb 09 was a good lesson for me and ill never forget it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 JB UPDATE: WEDNESDAY 10 PM EURO IS MY HERO ON THE COMING STORM. The Euro further north and stronger solution is in line with the thinking I have on this. The implications are for a paralyzing blizzard in the I-80 corridor from Nebraska to the lower lakes Seriously? Not going to say anything.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoeWx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Not for Southeastern Wisconsin:) That said, there's no way this doesn't shift several more times. I would be more inclined to agree with the shift if the thermal field agreed with what the model output. However if anything it is likely shifting that way, but currently - that makes no sense from a meteorological stand point. According to this run, there will be snow along the cold front all the way down to the Ohio River with a mix sleet/freezing rain in Western Kentucky, then changing over to all snow after FROPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Humph, I guess it's time to throw this one back on the shelf. Once a North trend starts, it's hard to stop it. Would contemplate going home if it a) weren't for finals and b ) this is the final solution. However, I can't imagine the models will keep this same solution for a few days, given the volatility in the past few days. Still a lot of winter left... Plus, in climatology terms..we've been treated quite well. Already banked a significant snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 GGEM didn't get the memo. Has a 1006 elongated over W TN at 72 A lot of the GFS Ensembles must not have got it either as they are farther south as well, by looking at the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 21z SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 GGEM didn't get the memo. Has a 1006 elongated over W TN at 72 That seems much farther SE than its previous run, isn't it? I think they must be playing hide and seek with each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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