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Dec 11-13 MW/Lakes/OV Snow Event? Part II


Chicago Storm

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looking more at this, it doesn't get much better for a heavy snow event for me out in the western burbs of the chi metro area. the city and southeast might have mixing issues at the onset but besides that were golden on this run.

mixing, in fact all out rain looks like a good bet, but i think we'll have the potential to make up for it in a big way. Two more days to go. :arrowhead:

http://www.wxcaster.com/models_text.htm

Shows ORD starting as light rain going over to 5.5 inches of snow and still snowing on the NAM.

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Cyclone this is may be an in my backyard question but I think it does have merit. Do you think that the storm could mature even quicker than what was depicted by the NAM?

Yeah I'd say it's possible. Jet structure like this is capable of explosive cyclogenesis. Knowing there's a potent storm about to develop is one thing, but the timing on when the explosive development is what can be very tricky, as that also has an impact on the eventual track.

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looking more at this, it doesn't get much better for a heavy snow event for me out in the western burbs of the chi metro area. the city and southeast might have mixing issues at the onset but besides that were golden on this run.

Yeah I'd feel pretty optimistic about things from Chicago on east. The further east you are relative to the heavy snow track, the better chance you'll have at picking up the big amounts. Further west there's more questions about the amount of organization in the early stages. Michigan looks like it has the potential to get slammed real hard.

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mixing, in fact all out rain looks like a good bet, but i think we'll have the potential to make up for it in a big way. Two more days to go. :arrowhead:

http://www.wxcaster....models_text.htm

Shows ORD starting as light rain going over to 5.5 inches of snow and still snowing on the NAM.

I don't know about a 36F temp at DTW at 84hr. Seems to me the Nam is overdoing the surface temps.

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http://www.wxcaster....models_text.htm

Shows ORD starting as light rain going over to 5.5 inches of snow and still snowing on the NAM.

If I could, I'd lock up the 0z NAM, take my 2.2" and run.

Regardless, and it probably needs not to be said, but you have to think the other models start moving back north soon. Euro...yeah yeah Euro love, blah blah...is a pretty hard model to beat when it's been on this scenario for 3 out of the last 4 runs.

Enjoy the rest of the 0z models boys!

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I'm basically throwing in the towel. Good luck to whoever gets it. Hopefully we can manage an inch of LES down this way over the weekend. Not going to bother with this anymore.

Dont post here much as I'm in a local Cincinnati forum, but just went to Buffalo last week for the epic LES event, because winter is not nice when it comes to snow around my neck of the woods. I mean I only average 22" a year. And when you've lived here, these storms come dime a dozen, especially in Dec/Jan. I even consider Columbus the dry slot capital of the world and Cincy also falls into that category from time to time. Since Monday Ive had a surface low track from KBMG to Richmond, In to KCLE, and I dont see any reason to change this. All this secondary development talk etc. is better placed in the garbage can. We all know the GFS pushes energy out of the mean H5 stream too quick, not leaving enuf vort energy behind, thus appearing as a SE bias, which has been its problem for years, and they still do not fix it. Nonetheless, Heavy snows will fall in northern 1/2 of IL/MO stretching ENE into NW 1/4 of Indiana and central to south central Lower Michigan. Im posting some maps in my local forum, but I'll throw a few up here later for those interested.

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If I could, I'd lock up the 0z NAM, take my 2.2" and run.

Regardless, and it probably needs not to be said, but you have to think the other models start moving back north soon. Euro...yeah yeah Euro love, blah blah...is a pretty hard model to beat when it's been on this scenario for 3 out of the last 4 runs.

Enjoy the rest of the 0z models boys!

Board meltdown if the 12z euro jumps south?

Nah, but you're probably right.

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i don't have the heart to cancel, but since some folks are coming in from a ways out of the city, it might be morphing into a sleep over.

Obviously still a little early but I can see lakeside areas staying warmer a bit longer with significant qpf/snow until the winds turn offshore. With wet snow and winds cranking up, that could get interesting.

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If I could, I'd lock up the 0z NAM, take my 2.2" and run.

Regardless, and it probably needs not to be said, but you have to think the other models start moving back north soon. Euro...yeah yeah Euro love, blah blah...is a pretty hard model to beat when it's been on this scenario for 3 out of the last 4 runs.

Enjoy the rest of the 0z models boys!

LOL leave it to the models, it temps us then it comes back to SCREW ya in the back... I swear come on for 2 weeks it shows snow here then what does it do... yep change, if it's not snow it's the freakin dry slot....

Insert bittercast for here Saturday, LOL bring on the rest of the models, and with that You'll see the AFDs go SEE i told ya the Euro was right....

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Dont post here much as I'm in a local Cincinnati forum, but just went to Buffalo last week for the epic LES event, because winter is not nice when it comes to snow around my neck of the woods. I mean I only average 22" a year. And when you've lived here, these storms come dime a dozen, especially in Dec/Jan. I even consider Columbus the dry slot capital of the world and Cincy also falls into that category from time to time. Since Monday Ive had a surface low track from KBMG to Richmond, In to KCLE, and I dont see any reason to change this. All this secondary development talk etc. is better placed in the garbage can. We all know the GFS pushes energy out of the mean H5 stream too quick, not leaving enuf vort energy behind, thus appearing as a SE bias, which has been its problem for years, and they still do not fix it. Nonetheless, Heavy snows will fall in northern 1/2 of IL/MO stretching ENE into NW 1/4 of Indiana and central to south central Lower Michigan. Im posting some maps in my local forum, but I'll throw a few up here later for those interested.

dont be a stranger welcome

btw...so true on cmh being the dryslot captital!!!!

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Obviously still a little early but I can see lakeside areas staying warmer a bit longer with significant qpf/snow until the winds turn offshore. With wet snow and winds cranking up, that could get interesting.

Yes the Bears game has the potential to be epic if the timing's right. Wish the game was at noon though.

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I have this feeling that this storm is going to end up tracking even farther north than what is depicted right now. We have seen this how many times over the last several years? This type of setup almost always ends up with a strong NW trend on the models.

I think this time around with other factors in place it can only go so far Northwest.

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