Dec 11-13 MW/Lakes/OV Snow Event? Part II

[Chicago WX]

given that cold air that will be coming in, i think the idea of rain quickly chaning to heavy wet snow is legit.

Sounds like a plan. It may not be the prettiest storm, but it could be effective.

[snowstormcanuck]

SREFS at 87

With their amplified bias, I'm just glad none have the low near Marquette.

[buckeye]

given that cold air that will be coming in, i think the idea of rain quickly chaning to heavy wet snow is legit.

that's a tough storm to bring in cold air for you if you're ahead of it. It's got a ridge pumping in front and the cold air can't wrap in until its overhead or passed....but this is also the type of storm that will have a major dry slot that will accompany height crashes. As someone said, the nam is also fairly weak with it as well.

[Organizing Low]

I'm having a hard time worrying about rain when so many solutions are still a good ways south and a bunch of NWS offices aren't buying such a northwest track. I think we're set up pretty good, that and there is a ton of cold air ripping down the backside, a rain to decent accums scenario is certainly possible.

strongly agree

IF this storms taps into its potential, backside snows will not be a problem IMO.

the models have really been all over the place. which tells me there is a lot of potential on the table that hasnt been fully tapped, like it could when all the models finally arrive at concensus.

[Chicago WX]

Again keeping in mind the best snows usually fall north and northwest of the 700 and 850 lows, here's the NAM at 84 hours.

And a better look at the slp location at 84 hours.

[The_Global_Warmer]

the 300mb jet streak paints the picture on the nam.

[tuanis]

like it could when all the models finally arrive at concensus.

When they all arrive at consensus? How about IF?

With that strength of that jet streak coming around the base of the trough, this one could be a nailbiter up until the end

[csnavywx]

Double E rule in effect.

[LizardMafia]

Quick look at soundings, LAF probably has a chance at some of the sloppiest snow, after a good dose of rain, you can imagine at 84 hours with just a small sliver of warmth at 950 and surface temps just above freezing. Again, fits my expectations to a tee.

One news station here is saying rain all weekend with a little mix in at the end..

Biggest snow will be in the northern part of the state.

[A-L-E-K]

Double E rule in effect.

My party Sat night is looking interesting.

[Chicago WX]

the 300mb jet streak paints the picture on the nam.

To support this post, an image at 12z Sunday.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Double E rule in effect.

which is?

[L.B. LaForce]

which is?

Eggs and Eggplant

[Chicago WX]

Double E rule in effect.

Glad someone else remembers that rule.

One news station here is saying rain all weekend with a little mix in at the end..

Biggest snow will be in the northern part of the state.

Our goose is cooked. Just some consolation snow showers hopefully add up to an inch.

[TheWeatherPimp]

Euro - ETA ( NAM ) both showing the same solution = Double E rule, hard to bet against really

[cyclone77]

With the new NAM starting to show a more dynamic, well constructed storm system I'm pretty confident the GFS will be a stark improvement over the 12z. I think even with the NAM's improvements this run it still isn't quite as strong as what we'll see in future runs. Not with such a powerhouse jet ripping into this thing.

[Chicago WX]

which is?

Used to be when the ETA (old name of the NAM) and Euro agreed, it was time to lock it up. Not sure if that still applies today.

[Organizing Low]

When they all arrive at consensus? How about IF?

With that strength of that jet coming around the base of the trough, this one could be a nailbiter up until the end

its always a nailbiter, but i imagine we will get some sort of concensus for the MW soon enough, especially once all the energy is sampled.

the last minute wobbles, of course that for nowcasting.

[Indystorm]

My party Sat night is looking interesting.

Hey I already cancelled my attendance at a retirement banquet for a friend in Indpls. Sat. eve because I didn't think I would make it back here to Elkhart Sat. night. Now I can stay here and just shovel.

[A-L-E-K]

Glad someone else remembers that rule.

Our goose is cooked. Just some consolation snow showers hopefully add up to an inch.

it's a classic.

[OHWxWatcher]

We seriously need more OV posters. Or at least one met.

I lurk, but have no knowledge. Can't offer much than a few nowcasting reports.

[Organizing Low]

My party Sat night is looking interesting.

you're having a party?

sounds like fun.

good music and snow, cant go wrong...

[csnavywx]

Euro - ETA ( NAM ) both showing the same solution = Double E rule, hard to bet against really

This. They are built on different physics packages and parameterizations, etc... so if they agree, it's pretty hard to go against it and win. It's not 100% foolproof of course, but a vast majority of the time, it works, especially at shorter timeframes.

[A-L-E-K]

you're having a party?

sounds like fun.

good music and snow, cant go wrong...

i don't have the heart to cancel, but since some folks are coming in from a ways out of the city, it might be morphing into a sleep over.

[TheWeatherPimp]

you're having a party?

sounds like fun.

good music and snow, cant go wrong...

You forgot the alcohol, that way you think you have a foot of snow when in reality you only picked up 6 inches

[Indystorm]

I see Beau Dodson lurking, an Ohio Valley met from the Metropolis/PAH area. He may have to face t storms changing to snow with this event.

[TheWeatherPimp]

So whatever model scores a win with this storm, I'm taking to the bank the rest of the Winter.

[dilly84]

Here comes the GFS, this should be interesting.

[goknights]

Cyclone this is may be an in my backyard question but I think it does have merit. Do you think that the storm could mature even quicker than what was depicted by the NAM?

[WxMidwest]

WGN RPM model going with North Trend....