A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 this is basically a glorified powerful clipper....its all northern stream. unless it cuts under you, you're screwed not really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 as i thought, right when heights crash in comes the slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 unreal....nice rainstorm for most of IL IN OH......by the time the heights crash i would bet the dryslot from hell comes in from the sw Lock it in. Climo rules. I would expect something similar to mid-December 2007, only in reverse. So basically a rainstorm that ends in some snow. Or a dryslot that ends in snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Reminds me of the storm in 2008, also Dec I believe?, when Detroit received around 12" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 not really. it's all northern stream...sure, some precip rides up the front. LA NINA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 No real phase here. The northern stream energy is still north of Lk Superior. I hope that's sufficient to keep this thing moving E/ENE rather than cut up through MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Man I can imagine how if this went to 90-96 how the maps would look. It was just about ready to explode with the Jet rounding the base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Lock it in. Climo rules. I would expect something similar to mid-December 2007, only in reverse. So basically a rainstorm that ends in some snow. Or a dryslot that ends in snow showers. Yep. Congrats to the northern IL/IN folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Lock it in. Climo rules. I would expect something similar to mid-December 2007, only in reverse. So basically a rainstorm that ends in some snow. Or a dryslot that ends in snow showers. it's not exactly a powerhouse, i wonder what effects (assuming the nam is correct), it has for down the road and the cold shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 loving the 0z NAM, wicked defo band there at hr 84, i'd be very happy with this solution. It's got sweet home Chicago written all over it, too bad we're not 12 hours away from the event. I've got a feeling Wisconsin gets nice and white with this one - maybe we'll squeeze something out of it as it pulls away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Looking at the 700 and 850 lows, nice hit for E IA, N IL, N IN, S WI, and eventually MI on the NAM. You can kind of see how this thing can explode and turn north quick, heck the NAM is fairly tame at 1000mb at 84 hours. Alas, it's the NAM at 84 hours...but does the EE rule still apply? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 Hr. 84 QPF with still some more to go... If that happeneds, remember who made the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 John dee on the money from this morning Map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 If that happeneds, remember who made the thread. Check will be in the mail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 It's got sweet home Chicago written all over it, too bad we're not 12 hours away from the event. I've got a feeling Wisconsin gets nice and white with this one - maybe we'll squeeze something out of it as it pulls away. I'm having a hard time worrying about rain when so many solutions are still a good ways south and a bunch of NWS offices aren't buying such a northwest track. I think we're set up pretty good, that and there is a ton of cold air ripping down the backside, a rain to decent accums scenario is certainly possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I'm basically throwing in the towel. Good luck to whoever gets it. Hopefully we can manage an inch of LES down this way over the weekend. Not going to bother with this anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 As much as I want to free myself from the model madness, I cannot give in until this thing is accurately sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I'm basically throwing in the towel. Good luck to whoever gets it. Hopefully we can manage an inch of LES down this way over the weekend. Not going to bother with this anymore. until the gfs shows an app runner in an hour it's one model run....it's the longrange nam....cmon give it another 24 at least besides, and most importantly, henry margusity has us in his Big Daddy circle!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Quick look at soundings, LAF probably has a chance at some of the sloppiest snow, after a good dose of rain, you can imagine at 84 hours with just a small sliver of warmth at 950 and surface temps just above freezing. Again, fits my expectations to a tee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Check will be in the mail +1 that run is about perfect, still snowing heavily at 84hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 until the gfs shows an app runner in an hour it's one model run....it's the longrange nam....cmon give it another 24 at least besides, and most importantly, henry margusity has us in his Big Daddy circle!!! I wasn't going to say that to him, just thought it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Thicknesses crash hard at ORD, probably a quick start of rain transitioning to heavy wet snow. NAM likes temps above freezing, but again we're talking 72+ hour NAM. Fun to look at though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Thicknesses crash hard at ORD, probably a quick start of rain transitioning to heavy wet snow. NAM likes temps above freezing, but again we're talking 72+ hour NAM. Fun to look at though. temps below 900mb are warm as snot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Thicknesses crash hard at ORD, probably a quick start of rain transitioning to heavy wet snow. NAM likes temps above freezing, but again we're talking 72+ hour NAM. Fun to look at though. given that cold air that will be coming in, i think the idea of rain quickly chaning to heavy wet snow is legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I wasn't going to say that to him, just thought it lol meh, if we lose the ukie and the ggem holds or goes further north and the gfs heads north....i might consider throwing in the towel tonite too. Losing the ukie to a nw shift would pretty much be the nail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 besides, and most importantly, henry margusity has us in his Big Daddy circle!!! Well, that trumps the Euro everytime! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 temps below 900mb are warm as snot! For who? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 until the gfs shows an app runner in an hour it's one model run....it's the longrange nam....cmon give it another 24 at least besides, and most importantly, henry margusity has us in his Big Daddy circle!!! I'll check back tomorrow or Friday, but I've put too much time into this anyway, and I didn't even believe we'd get the storm to begin with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 meh, if we lose the ukie and the ggem holds or goes further north and the gfs heads north....i might consider throwing in the towel tonite too. Losing the ukie to a nw shift would pretty much be the nail. Ya I said it in the other thread. Im not concerned with the nam this far out, but if the other models start going north, Im done with this one, and on to the next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 And there goes Ohio...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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