JoMo Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Man, the ensembles still want to go farther SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 8, 2010 Author Share Posted December 8, 2010 damn, i know they say the ensembles are usually south and east of the op...but that's crazy Man, the ensembles still want to go farther SE. Yea, ridiculously far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Overall I think people from St. Louis up towards LAF and Detroit/Cleveland oughta be feeling pretty good about things tonight. Still a long ways to go but the trend seems to be really heading in the direction of a Ohio Valley storm. Ensembles have been hinting at that for the past few days as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 GGEM 96hr precip type. lol and you thought you were going to be mostly all snow to start.. Wind with this baby could be the real headlines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 lol and you thought you were going to be mostly all snow to start.. Yesterday's run did. Granted the warm tongue wasn't as prominent. I personally have no idea what I'll see, just as everyone else here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 lol and you thought you were going to be mostly all snow to start.. Wind with this baby could be the real headlines. Actually it still does changeover pretty quick if you look at the following panels. All in all, I like where SE MI sits as of now for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 GGEM 96hr precip type. Notice that enhanced QPF from southern WI through far northern MI. I believe that's frontogenetic enhance precip indicating where the arctic front is (ie cold air north and west of that line). So it sort of makes sense that temps are marginal to the south. On the other hand, GFS isn't showing any of the p-type problems the GGEM is. Actually, I think warm boundary layer temps is a GGEM bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Yesterday's run did. Granted the warm tongue wasn't as prominent. I personally have no idea what I'll see, just as everyone else here. yesterday the run was even farther north.. Can't see how it wasn't starting as rain just like this shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Notice that enhanced QPF from southern WI through far northern MI. I believe that's frontogenetic enhance precip indicating where the arctic front is (ie cold air north and west of that line). So it sort of makes sense that temps are marginal to the south. On the other hand, GFS isn't showing any of the p-type problems the GGEM is. Actually, I think warm boundary layer temps is a GGEM bias. That's probably our main culprit here. Unfortuantely the temperature maps haven't come out yet, so we have a wait a little while longer to verify this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 If this misses me to the SE I will be devastated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Can you ALL please put your location in your member profile so it shows up in the box to the left? It makes it difficult to understand your posts without it. Powerball JoMo buckeye Don't mean to call you out but you are posting with great fervor and I have yet to figure out your location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I believe: Powerball is Detroit JoMo is SW Missouri buckeye is Cleveland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I believe: Powerball is Detroit JoMo is SW Missouri buckeye is Cleveland Buckeye is Columbus, OH or thereabouts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Thanks for the location info. However unless I keep a post-it with everyone screen name and location next to my monitor I won't remember this accurately in the future. Why can't you put it in your sig or your profile? Makes sense to me. Easy fix. Anyway I'll leave you alone now. Cheers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 00z FIM is farther south and would have a track along the TN/KY state line through 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 The 00z FIM stayed its course, just slightly south. It's quite scary to think that the most reliable model now is an extreme outlier (and consistent at it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 The 00z FIM stayed its course, just slightly south. It's quite scary to think that the most reliable model now is an extreme outlier (and consistent at it). We'll see if that continues in about 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 When is the 0z Euro out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 If the Euro would just jump ship I could at least give the clipper a little attention that it deserves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 When is the 0z Euro out? Euro is rolling out now. tombo doing Play by Play here: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/2565-0z-euro/ Maps are here: http://greatlakes.salsite.com/big_ECMWF_plymouth_page.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 0Z ukie is way south...almost riding the coast 0Z ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 0Z ukie is way south...almost riding the coast umm what? :-\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 This us scary. I wonder what the mets who had this on s, lake Michigan thought and why these are so far south now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Bow- I'm starting to think this *may* be a non event up here... the Thurs storm did come in wetter, so we should pick up some there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 If EURO takes the low from DSM to MQT I'll lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 holy crap on that ukie.... even the i-95ers are stirring on that one lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 What I hope isn't happening (and I still somewhat fear this scenario) is that we're unraveling back to the point where we initially started where there was virtually no storm (or a very weak supressed one) or phase. On the other hand, we are in the time frame when the models tend to do their crazy SE trend then adjust back northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 What I hope isn't happening (and I still somewhat fear this scenario) is that we're unraveling back to the point where we initially started where there was virtually no storm (or a very weak supressed one) or phase. On the other hand, we are in the time frame when the models tend to do their crazy SE trend then adjust back northward. i thought about this too....a trend to no phase and basically a non event. But still, what the ukie is doing is totally different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 8, 2010 Author Share Posted December 8, 2010 0z ECMWF: 84hrs: SLP in Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 What I hope isn't happening (and I still somewhat fear this scenario) is that we're unraveling back to the point where we initially started where there was virtually no storm (or a very weak supressed one) or phase. On the other hand, we are in the time frame when the models tend to do their crazy SE trend then adjust back northward. There will be much egg on the proverbial faces if this happens. The tv mets here have been showing possible storm tracks and model paths for the last two days, pegging the "big one". Fo me, I like being a novice at winter weather, it means I don't have to get to excited until day 2-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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