jbcmh81 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I have a couple good friends who are mets in Dayton and one who is a met at ILN but I can't get any of them to post here Fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Right now, it's basically a hump the Euro thread. Well thats a way to put it! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Not suggesting two threads, but with the vast majority of posters north of I-80, including mets, it's sometimes hard to get any ideas from others on our area. Even if this storm heads well north, I'd still like to know thoughts about here as well. Right now, it's basically a hump the Euro thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Svrwx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Hi everyone - Ohio poster here. ILN & LOU seem to be favoring the southern track in their recent discussions - IND still mentions the possibility of rain mixing in. Hey like your user name Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 this clears things up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 this clears things up To me that would signify a potential NW trend. Although, a second flavor is a coastal forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaytonFlyers21 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Hey like your user name Thank you, unfortunately they are about as consistent as the models lately... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 this clears things up Actually, it basically says that the majority of the disagreement is on the NW side of the spread, either on strength or placement. Note the lower spread on the SE of the mean, fewer solutions are going that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Actually, it basically says that the majority of the disagreement is on the NW side of the spread, either on strength or placement. Note the lower spread on the SE of the mean, fewer solutions are going that way. 500.... which brings up a question, no model is showing a negative tilt so why would a low drive north without that...or is this more of a bowler? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Looks fairly similar to the GGEM on low location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Right now, it's basically a hump the Euro thread. This made me lol. Good stuff right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 this thread is going to get way to volatile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Interesting, where u get those maps buckeye? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Interesting, where u get those maps buckeye? ncep model/guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 this thread is going to get way to volatile. Nah it'll be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 From KBUF STILL FEEL THAT FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL STANDPOINT...A COASTAL DEVELOPMENT IS FAVORED GIVEN THE FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE NOT TOO MUCH IS READ IN THE SPECIFICS...THE OPERATIONAL GFS APPEARS MUCH MORE PLAUSIBLE THAN THE EUROPEAN/GGEM...AND IS MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH OUR GOING FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Interesting, where u get those maps buckeye? i will ask you the same about that funky "L" map...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 500.... which brings up a question, no model is showing a negative tilt so why would a low drive north without that...or is this more of a bowler? Inverted trough and coupled jet. Notice the height packing around the lakes between the PV and upstream ridge? And most of the disagreement at that range appears to be with speed, less so with tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 this thread is going to get way to volatile. Nah, everyone's cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 i will ask you the same about that funky "L" map...lol SREF: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/ click forecast hour, then its under Basic Overview --> PMSL Low Centers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chagrin Falls Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Not sure I can agree with the HPC (and thus all NWS WFO Midwestern offices) with this one. The 12Z ECMWF Ensembles over the past few days have been fairly consistent, but the gradual trend has been further west and warmer. Regarding the Sunday morning primary low position, Monday's run had it in southeastern Ohio, Tuesday's run near CMH and Wednesday's run near TOL. I'm familiar the climatological argument but with such a strong Greenland/Iceland block and negative NAO I'd be very hesitant to agree with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Inverted trough and coupled jet. Notice the height packing around the lakes between the PV and upstream ridge? And most of the disagreement at that range appears to be with speed, less so with tilt. does the fact that there is not a closed low in the center like the euro was showing mean anything.....or would that not be indicated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 500.... which brings up a question, no model is showing a negative tilt so why would a low drive north without that...or is this more of a bowler? Exactly what IWX mentions in their AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Not sure I can agree with the HPC (and thus all NWS WFO Midwestern offices) with this one. The 12Z ECMWF Ensembles over the past few days have been fairly consistent, but the gradual trend has been further west and warmer. Regarding the Sunday morning primary low position, Monday's run had it in southeastern Ohio, Tuesday's run near CMH and Wednesday's run near TOL. I'm familiar the climatological argument but with such a strong Greenland/Iceland block and negative NAO I'd be very hesitant to agree with them. Excellent point. A lot of the ensembles have been fairly consistent through out until today when the GFS ensembles fell off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I predict the NAM will come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 i saw this posted in another thread.....i have no idea what the rsm...but it's the 21z run and i like the track, so dammit, im posting it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 Looking at the NAM through 54hrs, it seems the s/w is more organized as it pushes through the Northwest headed towards the Plains and there is a bit less digging as it reaches the Plains. FWIW that is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 i saw this posted in another thread.....i have no idea what the rsm...but it's the 21z run and i like the track, so dammit, im posting it Regional Spectral Model, never heard of it. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 i saw this posted in another thread.....i have no idea what the rsm...but it's the 21z run and i like the track, so dammit, im posting it RSM actually has a NW/amplified bias, so the fact that it's in the TN Valley is odd. Don't think it's really significant though because the RSM also has a crap bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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