MoeWx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Yeah the 12z/18z GFS runs look way out to lunch to me. There's no way this system will look this pathetic at 90hrs. I certainly expect it to look considerably more dynamic than that, with a lot more QPF as well. I agree completely. I still feel like Euro and GFS are the Outliners oddly enough with NOGAPS 12z pretty much my best guess for now... I don't agree with the amount of WAA occurring with the Euro... especially with no subtropical jet support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Yeah whenever we see a large convective looking QPF spike near the surface low placement by the GFS it makes the whole run suspect. Yep, GFS always good for some lols. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Hopefully this isn't the best thing we see here in northern IL over the next 4-5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 Hopefully this isn't the best thing we see here in northern IL over the next 4-5 days Dusting at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I don't think I have seen anyone get eaten alive like this poor soul over the past few years I have been on! You don't rip on the NWS here... simple enough. Seriously you were not part of the conversation Im not hear to impress you im here to discuss the weather and most people have been nice except for a few rude people who take thinks out of context and assume things those people should be ashamed.of themselves. Everyone else is not so uptight I have nothing else to say if its not the weather to judgmental people like you. Actually, I saw the original post on that board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 IWX has a slightly humorous, but realistic comment on the upcoming storm in their latest discussion. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN UNCERTAINTY AND NO FAVORED NORTH/WEST TREND WHEN LACKING A NEG TILT MID LEVEL TROUGH...THE LOGICAL MOVE IS TO STAND PAT WITH PTYPE/TIMING AND WITH LIKELY POPS ALREADY IN PLACE AND STILL WARRANTED...MINIMAL CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD IS PRUDENT WITH A PASS TO THE NIGHT SHIFT TO MAKE SENSE OF THE LATEST TRENDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 We seriously need more OV posters. Or at least one met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 We seriously need more OV posters. Or at least one met. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
royalflush06 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 You don't rip on the NWS here... simple enough. Actually, I saw the original post on that board. actually i did and will if i think they are wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 We seriously need more OV posters. Or at least one met. MoeWX above is a met in Evansville. He just needs his red tag. Welcome Moe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoeWx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 We seriously need more OV posters. Or at least one met. I am in the Lower Ohio Valley, and I am a Meteorologist I am just becoming active though. I'll be around from now on ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I would be going with somewhere between the Euro and the GGEM, the GGEM/Euro ensembles aren't a bad compromise. I think if the GGEM handled the energy correctly it would be closer to the Euro. The GFS/Ukie off on an island somewhere, the Land of Southeast Bias. to be fair the euro is not without it's own biases including over phasing. I've heard other mets discuss this as well. Also, assuming it does wrap up and head north, at what longitude would make the most sense....why? if that energy is as strung out coming in from the west as some of the modelling is showing it will take more time to consolidate and get it to dig. One of the things that has struck me most about this whole scenario is how flat the 500 maps look leading up to this storm (on all the models). Throw on top of that the strung out look of the energy coming in from the west and it's amazing that we end up with such a sharp deep trough so quickly. There's also the placement and orientation of the PV in canada which will effect how easily it can phase into the trough. from what I'm seeing with the Ukie, it has a much broader flatter look to the PV which is probably why it's phasing much later. just throw'n some stuff at a wall...you're the met...i'm just looking for your thoughts on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoeWx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 MoeWX above is a met in Evansville. He just needs his red tag. Welcome Moe! Thanks! I looked for the Midwest forums before ! I just found it today though. How we go about getting our tag? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 MoeWX above is a met in Evansville. He just needs his red tag. Welcome Moe! seconded, welcome as well... we have a good online family here!!!! kokomo that caption under your avatar is a riot!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I am in the Lower Ohio Valley, and I am a Meteorologist I am just becoming active though. I'll be around from now on ! You are great with your insights on twitter. @MoeWx I am really glad to see you here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 992 mb on the storm center there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 IWX has a slightly humorous, but realistic comment on the upcoming storm in their latest discussion. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN UNCERTAINTY AND NO FAVORED NORTH/WEST TREND WHEN LACKING A NEG TILT MID LEVEL TROUGH...THE LOGICAL MOVE IS TO STAND PAT WITH PTYPE/TIMING AND WITH LIKELY POPS ALREADY IN PLACE AND STILL WARRANTED...MINIMAL CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD IS PRUDENT WITH A PASS TO THE NIGHT SHIFT TO MAKE SENSE OF THE LATEST TRENDS. Always pass stuff off to the night shift. Story of my life. Why does the increased QPF near the low make the GFS suspect? Like I said before, I am a newb to the winter stuff. Trying to sit back, read, and not ask too many questions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I didn't know there was a 18Z ukie but apparently so...18Z run goes out to 60 but the 60hr looks like the euro at 72 as far as slp goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 We seriously need more OV posters. Or at least one met. here i think we would refer to them as advocates...lol but yes, we are an 'orphan region'. No ohio mets...our pittsburgh brothers are in the same boat. Of course there is one OV met who resides in lousville but he spends all his time in AP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 We seriously need more OV posters. Or at least one met. I remember we had two threads (one GL, one OV) for the VD 2007 storm. Wasn't a great idea. Too much of a hassle to navigate between the two threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I didn't know there was a 18Z ukie but apparently so...18Z run goes out to 60 but the 60hr looks like the euro at 72 as far as slp goes but it also look like the 66 hour 12z ukie as well...maybe a smidge stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 here i think we would refer to them as advocates...lol but yes, we are an 'orphan region'. No ohio mets...our pittsburgh brothers are in the same boat. Of course there is one OV met who resides in lousville but he spends all his time in AP. I have a couple good friends who are mets in Dayton and one who is a met at ILN but I can't get any of them to post here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 to be fair the euro is not without it's own biases including over phasing. I've heard other mets discuss this as well. Also, assuming it does wrap up and head north, at what longitude would make the most sense....why? if that energy is as strung out coming in from the west as some of the modelling is showing it will take more time to consolidate and get it to dig. One of the things that has struck me most about this whole scenario is how flat the 500 maps look leading up to this storm (on all the models). Throw on top of that the strung out look of the energy coming in from the west and it's amazing that we end up with such a sharp deep trough so quickly. There's also the placement and orientation of the PV in canada which will effect how easily it can phase into the trough. from what I'm seeing with the Ukie, it has a much broader flatter look to the PV which is probably why it's phasing much later. just throw'n some stuff at a wall...you're the met...i'm just looking for your thoughts on this. You are correct as well... every model has biases based on their internal calculations and physics. It really comes down to analyzing what the models are spitting out and determining if what they are printing out makes good meteorological sense. The Ukie takes a long time to get everything together so it does remain somewhat flatter and less impressive... but I'm not so sure if its catching on to where the energy is trying to consolidate properly but it could be and if so its representation would likely be correct. The Euro, however, could be correct too if the energy is more compact and emerges into the plains and phases quicker. Again a matter of which model is catching things correctly. Its always hard to throw out the Euro. I've seen people here locally and elsewhere who've done it and paid the price. I just don't always like the most ominous solutions for varying reasons, in my area anyways, but ominous doesn't automatically mean discount it. Sorry I may still be a bit incoherent for a few days yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaytonFlyers21 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Hi everyone - Ohio poster here. ILN & LOU seem to be favoring the southern track in their recent discussions - IND still mentions the possibility of rain mixing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 sweet Moe made it here.... if I didn't see ya before I was going to send ya a link moe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 to be fair the euro is not without it's own biases including over phasing. I've heard other mets discuss this as well. Also, assuming it does wrap up and head north, at what longitude would make the most sense....why? if that energy is as strung out coming in from the west as some of the modelling is showing it will take more time to consolidate and get it to dig. One of the things that has struck me most about this whole scenario is how flat the 500 maps look leading up to this storm (on all the models). Throw on top of that the strung out look of the energy coming in from the west and it's amazing that we end up with such a sharp deep trough so quickly. There's also the placement and orientation of the PV in canada which will effect how easily it can phase into the trough. from what I'm seeing with the Ukie, it has a much broader flatter look to the PV which is probably why it's phasing much later. just throw'n some stuff at a wall...you're the met...i'm just looking for your thoughts on this. No I hear ya there, which is why I'm not 100% on Euro train, but I am leaning toward a Northern solution. Obviously timing of phasing will be main question. I just am having a hard time buying a solution of it digging all the way into the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I remember we had two threads (one GL, one OV) for the VD 2007 storm. Wasn't a great idea. Too much of a hassle to navigate between the two threads. Not suggesting two threads, but with the vast majority of posters north of I-80, including mets, it's sometimes hard to get any ideas from others on our area. Even if this storm heads well north, I'd still like to know thoughts about here as well. Right now, it's basically a hump the Euro thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Hi everyone - Ohio poster here. ILN & LOU seem to be favoring the southern track in their recent discussions - IND still mentions the possibility of rain mixing in. Welcome Dayton - Darke County poster here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I remember we had two threads (one GL, one OV) for the VD 2007 storm. Wasn't a great idea. Too much of a hassle to navigate between the two threads. actually i think this thread is fine....it's perfect for this kind of event where pretty much everyone here is in the game. The only time a little friction starts to build is when people aren't willing to recognize that most of the options are still on the table. As the models sort this out and a solution becomes evident, the ones still in the game will stay around and post, the ones getting the shaft will slowly leave....and that's the way it should work. Until the next threat. it's all good but right now it's way way way too early for anyone to claim they know the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaytonFlyers21 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Welcome Dayton - Darke County poster here Thanks, you are looking better than me right now being NW - looking forward to the model runs tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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