SEMIweather Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 You won't have to worry about that a lot this year I'm going back to MI from Dec. 17 - Jan. 16 so I still get a month of drama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The best place to be right now regarding confidence for heavy snows would be Northern Illinois, Northern Indiana, Southern Michigan, and Northern Ohio. I feel better now than I did almost 24 hours ago here in Southern Wisconsin, and, even discounting the ECMWF, my AFD predicted 2-5" with a few more near the lake due to lake effect. Combined with 2-3 for the clipper tomorrow, that's still a decent amount of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 It's looking like a very good swath of 3-5 or maybe 4-6 in WI, Iowa, N. ILL. Even with a southern storm track. 18z GFS gives out nearly .45-.5 qpf in these areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 It's looking like a very good swath of 3-5 or maybe 4-6 in WI, Iowa, N. ILL. Even with a southern storm track. 18z GFS gives out nearly .45-.5 qpf in these areas. Thats the nice thing about this storm...the cold air. Even if you are not in the "bullseye" you should be able to get decent accums with the moisture available and high ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
royalflush06 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The best place to be right now regarding confidence for heavy snows would be Northern Illinois, Northern Indiana, Southern Michigan, and Northern Ohio. I feel better now than I did almost 24 hours ago here in Southern Wisconsin, and, even discounting the ECMWF, my AFD predicted 2-5" with a few more near the lake due to lake effect. Combined with 2-3 for the clipper tomorrow, that's still a decent amount of snow. I would normally agree but for southern mi and points south mixing or rain may be a real possibility the euro has been pretty firm in its own idea. I also think once the arctic air plunges in after the storm that besides lake effect the storm track obviously gets pushed far south so at that point clippers are the only hope for snow once it is bitterly cold. This may be the best chance to build a good snow pack for christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I'm still playing catchup to the 12z runs, but man what a difference between the GEM and Euro at H5. Euro has the low completely closed off at 96hrs, whereas it takes the GEM until 138hrs to get it done. With so much energy slamming into the trough you'd think it would very quickly deepen the low at all levels, including at H5. The GEM doesn't seem as dynamic as it should be with so much mid and upper level jet support. The same goes for the GFS. 150kt H3 jet streak diving into the back of this thing and it doesn't close off until 138? Maybe it's just me, but that seems kind of odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I'm still playing catchup to the 12z runs, but man what a difference between the GEM and Euro at H5. Euro has the low completely closed off at 96hrs, whereas it takes the GEM until 138hrs to get it done. With so much energy slamming into the trough you'd think it would very quickly deepen the low at all levels, including at H5. The GEM doesn't seem as dynamic as it should be with so much mid and upper level jet support. The same goes for the GFS. 150kt H3 jet streak diving into the back of this thing and it doesn't close off until 138? Maybe it's just me, but that seems kind of odd. 15z SREFs hint that the Euro might not be alone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I'm going back to MI from Dec. 17 - Jan. 16 so I still get a month of drama. See, and if you went to CMU, you could get a met major, and get in on all the snowy action! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 See, and if you went to CMU, you could get a met major, and get in on all the snowy action! Indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 15z SREFs hint that the Euro might not be alone Yeah, to me those members seem pretty realistic given the very potent incoming jet. This thing should be closed off and ripping pretty good by the time it crosses the Mississippi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I'm still playing catchup to the 12z runs, but man what a difference between the GEM and Euro at H5. Euro has the low completely closed off at 96hrs, whereas it takes the GEM until 138hrs to get it done. With so much energy slamming into the trough you'd think it would very quickly deepen the low at all levels, including at H5. The GEM doesn't seem as dynamic as it should be with so much mid and upper level jet support. The same goes for the GFS. 150kt H3 jet streak diving into the back of this thing and it doesn't close off until 138? Maybe it's just me, but that seems kind of odd. Yes I agree with that amount of energy diving in and phasing with it, you'd think it would close off quickly like the Euro. I think all the pieces of the puzzle are there, they just need to be put into place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 See, and if you went to CMU, you could get a met major, and get in on all the snowy action! Meh, I'll take my 1 month chance of snow and then the 3 months of possible storm chasing. But I totally understand if you prefer the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Meh, I'll take my 1 month chance of snow and then the 3 months of possible storm chasing. But I totally understand if you prefer the snow. We get tornadoes too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Yeah, to me those members seem pretty realistic given the very potent incoming jet. This thing should be closed off and ripping pretty good by the time it crosses the Mississippi. And this is precisely why I am not discounting the further North solution... that energy just seems to scream closed off and left turn... just depends on where the closing off occurs at is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 bahahaha, oh hell no, tornadoes DO NOT exist in MI. They are myths, and ones on TV are photoshop/CGI. I prefer tornadoes much more than snow. CMU is cheaper for me, and i'd be way too distracted with storms in that area, id go storm chasing, and fail my classes-lol. See, up here I gotta consider the drive now, so im more likely to stay in classes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 We get tornadoes too! I was raised in Michigan but spent 5 years in Kansas...believe me, those aren't tornado's! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I was raised in Michigan but spent 5 years in Kansas...believe me, those aren't tornado's! This is also true. Also I agree with Justin, could be a flatter track until this thing really phases then look for a left turn. All these models showing a right turn on the low track are simply wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 This is also true. Also I agree with Justin, could be a flatter track until this thing really phases then look for a left turn. All these models showing a right turn on the low track are simply wrong. So you are going with the EURO and the EURO only? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 And this is precisely why I am not discounting the further North solution... that energy just seems to scream closed off and left turn... just depends on where the closing off occurs at is all. Yup, that's what I've been thinking all along. If it happens and where it happens are very much up in the air though. I'm reminded by similar systems passing to my south and the NWS forecasts calling for 'flurries' right before you go to bed, but the storm closes off and rapidly deepens and you wake up to 6" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Hello All I have moved to this forum after 2 years at accufavor I95 I was warned for saying that the DTX AFD gave no real forecast for the weekend storm and that it favored the euro and the lack of info was pathetic. I was told calling the nws pathetic was a personal attack. LOL LOL LOL Oh and I should have used a nicer word than pathetic. Good to see a few from accu here. I am getting more nervous about this weekends storm seems like the phasing must be perfect for these to really bomb out. To much has to come together. Yeah, that's not a smart idea. How about you try to forecast this in detail without any sampling. See how well that turns out. Your first impression here did not turn out well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 So you are going with the EURO and the EURO only? I would be going with somewhere between the Euro and the GGEM, the GGEM/Euro ensembles aren't a bad compromise. I think if the GGEM handled the energy correctly it would be closer to the Euro. The GFS/Ukie off on an island somewhere, the Land of Southeast Bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Yeah, that's not a smart idea. How about you try to forecast this in detail without any sampling. See how well that turns out. Your first impression here did not turn out well. I don't think I have seen anyone get eaten alive like this poor soul over the past few years I have been on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I would be going with somewhere between the Euro and the GGEM, the GGEM/Euro ensembles aren't a bad compromise. I think if the GGEM handled the energy correctly it would be closer to the Euro. The GFS/Ukie off on an island somewhere, the Land of Southeast Bias. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I would be going with somewhere between the Euro and the GGEM, the GGEM/Euro ensembles aren't a bad compromise. I think if the GGEM handled the energy correctly it would be closer to the Euro. The GFS/Ukie off on an island somewhere, the Land of Southeast Bias. Sounds like a great place! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 ...The GFS/Ukie off on an island somewhere, the Land of Southeast Bias. Yeah the 12z/18z GFS runs look way out to lunch to me. There's no way this system will look this pathetic at 90hrs. I certainly expect it to look considerably more dynamic than that, with a lot more QPF as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Yeah the 12z/18z GFS runs look way out to lunch to me. There's no way this system will look this pathetic at 90hrs. I certainly expect it to look considerably more dynamic than that, with a lot more QPF as well. Yeah see the problem to me is an issue with that complex that tries to blow up over AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
royalflush06 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Yeah, that's not a smart idea. How about you try to forecast this in detail without any sampling. See how well that turns out. Your first impression here did not turn out well. Seriously you were not part of the conversation Im not hear to impress you im here to discuss the weather and most people have been nice except for a few rude people who take thinks out of context and assume things those people should be ashamed.of themselves. Everyone else is not so uptight I have nothing else to say if its not the weather to judgmental people like you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Seriously you were not part of the conversation Im not hear to impress you im here to discuss the weather and most people have been nice except for a few rude people who take thinks out of context and assume things those people should be ashamed.of themselves. Everyone else is not so uptight I have nothing else to say if its not the weather to judgmental people like you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Yeah see the problem to me is an issue with that complex that tries to blow up over AR. Yeah whenever we see a large convective looking QPF spike near the surface low placement by the GFS it makes the whole run suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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