Dec 11-13 MW/Lakes/OV Snow Event? Part II

[Thundersnow12]

some images from the 12z euro off our site, would be a heck of a storm here if this verified. nobody can throw out this solution, its WAY too early, this thing phases early and puts on its left turn signal and boom! you got this scenario and possibly throwing out the B word.

[royalflush06]

Detroit is one of the best offices in the MW... They said they could take the brunt or a glancing blow.. what more can they say at this point.. They're not here to blow sweet nothings in weenies ears with a storm 3-4 days out. I'm sure tomorrow they will have a better grasp on things and will be back to a very detailed, AFD.

Enough Im here to talk with pleasent people about the weather not rude people who think only their opinion matters in 2 years ive never seen a such rudeness. detroit at times is a good office deedler is one of the best and does a great job with seasonal write ups and historic storms.

[JoMo]

We are 3 days out with still a rather large track difference with regards to who gets what I would guess this will have a few surprises and busts I remember last winter a couple of storms jogged northwest once fully sampled. Does anyone know if they track the overall performance of the models to see which ones may do better with different types of weather and or seasons

Yeah they do it by season. Euro is top dog.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/STATS.html

[Hoosier]

some images from the 12z euro off our site, would be a heck of a storm here if this verified. nobody can throw out this solution, its WAY too early, this thing phases early and puts on its left turn signal and boom! you got this scenario and possibly throwing out the B word.

I noticed the Euro ensemble mean had about a 50 mb pressure gradient between the high and low. Pretty impressive considering it's a smoothed mean. I don't have access to individual members so I don't know what those look like.

[OceanStWx]

Yeah they do it by season. Euro is top dog.

http://www.emc.ncep....TATS/STATS.html

You'll be hard pressed to find a scenario where that isn't the case too, except maybe for its hang up with ejecting energy out of the desert Southwest.

[snowstormcanuck]

By my count, only 4 of the 11 18z GFS ensemble members available on the PSU site showed heavy snow west of the mountains. Now, they tend to be OP run sycophants, so I'm not too concerned.

[A-L-E-K]

I noticed the Euro ensemble mean had about a 50 mb pressure gradient between the high and low. Pretty impressive considering it's a smoothed mean. I don't have access to individual members so I don't know what those look like.

Judging by the look of the mean alone, i can't imagine the spread is all that large.

[royalflush06]

I noticed the Euro ensemble mean had about a 50 mb pressure gradient between the high and low. Pretty impressive considering it's a smoothed mean. I don't have access to individual members so I don't know what those look like.

The euro last season i could of swore was an outlier similiar to this and once everything was sampled all the models within a day or so jumped northwest in line with the euro I have a feeling it might happen again

[Hoosier]

The euro last season i could of swore was an outlier similiar to this and once everything was sampled all the models within a day or so jumped northwest in line with the euro I have a feeling it might happen again

Outliers are outliers but when it's the Euro it does make me a little nervous, particularly if it keeps up with a farther north solution for the next couple runs.

[JoMo]

You'll be hard pressed to find a scenario where that isn't the case too, except maybe for its hang up with ejecting energy out of the desert Southwest.

Yeah, you can never count out the best performing model, even when nearly every other model has a different solution.

I just realized they had precip verifications out to 84 hours here as well:

http://www.emc.ncep....pcpverif/daily/

[cyclone77]

To me the 12z Euro looks very similar to numerous past runs by that model, obviously discarding last night's 00z. That in itself is something to consider. Also, it very much resembles what the GEM was showing for several days, before it bailed south last night and this morning.

Another thing that makes this storm fairly tricky is the double barrel surface low/inverted trough structure early on. If it wasn't for that northern low/inverted trough being there I'd be a lot more quick to go all in on the southern bandwagon.

IIRC, the Euro was the first model to grasp the huge NW jump to the Christmas storm last year. I remember the first time I saw it I said no way in hell could that be correct. Soon after the GEM and others joined. Obviously that's a completely different storm/setup, but just shows how something that looks so unbelievable a few days out can end up being true.

[Chicago WX]

I get asked by my friends what my forecast is with winter storms for LAF...yeah I know they seem desperate and are probably looking in the wrong direction...but I told them good chance of rain, then a transition to snow with a couple inches on the backside, with gusty winds making it for a wild time. 12z Euro kind of fits my plan perfectly it seems.

[Jim Martin]

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS SHOW

DEEP LOW MOVING THROUGH THE EAST CENTRAL CONUS. TRACK IS STILL

UNCERTAIN. GFS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE LOW CENTER

SOUTH OF ILN WHICH POINTS TO SNOW FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. ECMWF HAS

BEEN WAVERING BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION AND A NORTHERN TRACK

WHICH WOULD BRING RAIN ON SATURDAY. KEPT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR

SATURDAY...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THOUGH

PRECIP TYPE IS STILL IN QUESTION...THE EVENT IS NEARLY CERTAIN TO

OCCUR SO RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL SATURDAY NIGHT. A HALF INCH TO

AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT SEEMS LIKE A FAIR ESTIMATE AT THIS

POINT. A DRY SLOT MAY FURTHER COMPLICATE THINGS DEPENDING ON THE LOW

TRACK.

This is part of the evening area forecast discussion from the National Weather Service in Wilmington, OH.

[Hoosier]

I get asked by my friends what my forecast is with winter storms for LAF...yeah I know they seem desperate and are probably looking in the wrong direction...but I told them good chance of rain, then a transition to snow with a couple inches on the backside, with gusty winds making it for a wild time. 12z Euro kind of fits my plan perfectly it seems.

I've been getting asked too and I'm just keeping it simple with rain changing to snow with wind blown accumulation possible.

[Thundersnow12]

To me the 12z Euro looks very similar to numerous past runs by that model, obviously discarding last night's 00z. That in itself is something to consider. Also, it very much resembles what the GEM was showing for several days, before it bailed south last night and this morning.

Another thing that makes this storm fairly tricky is the double barrel surface low/inverted trough structure early on. If it wasn't for that northern low/inverted trough being there I'd be a lot more quick to go all in on the southern bandwagon.

IIRC, the Euro was the first model to grasp the huge NW jump to the Christmas storm last year. I remember the first time I saw it I said no way in hell could that be correct. Soon after the GEM and others joined. Obviously that's a completely different storm/setup, but just shows how something that looks so unbelievable a few days out can end up being true.

I think your right about the xmas storm but id have to go back and check. I like a track between the euro and gfs right now but everything could change once it comes onshore and gets fully sampled on friday.

[Thundersnow12]

I work at my school and have people in different offices asking me about this system and im telling them how the models are all over the place and we could see rain changing to snow with alot of wind and getting colder but to ask me on friday

[Chicago WX]

I've been getting asked too and I'm just keeping it simple with rain changing to snow with wind blown accumulation possible.

Well when you figure this thing out, let me know. I'd like to keep my rep up with my weather clueless friends.

[snowstormcanuck]

Here's the GGEM ensemble mean for 12z Sunday

Pretty good agreement.

[prinsburg_wx]

i read some of these AFD's and they say the euro has been wavering around...really? it wavered on the 0Z but came back on the 12Z to what it has been consistent with since last sunday i believe or am i wrong on this? ...i think the other models have wavered around but the ukie.

[Stebo]

Here's the GGEM ensemble mean for 12z Sunday

Pretty good agreement.

Notice too not many in love with the GFS and from what I remember GGEM ensembles have a SE bias, so if anything this gives a little bit more credence to the Northern idea.

[Stebo]

i read some of these AFD's and they say the euro has been wavering around...really? it wavered on the 0Z but came back on the 12Z to what it has been consistent with since last sunday i believe or am i wrong on this? ...i think the other models have wavered around but the ukie.

Yeah it shifted one run, apparently thats wavering, I don't know.

[Jim Martin]

SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT.

.SUNDAY...SNOW LIKELY. BRISK WITH HIGHS AROUND 30. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.

This is the zone forecast for Hardin County OH (county just south of Findlay) from the National Weather Service in Wilmington OH. It would appear for the moment Wilmington is fairly confident about the storm potential.

[WeatherNC]

Here's the GGEM ensemble mean for 12z Sunday

Pretty good agreement.

And it has been this way for the past couple days, remarkable agreement with the CMC members. Don't have access to the EC members, but given some of the differences between the mean and op, imagine there was some spread. The GFS obviously has spread, but the op Canadian has been in the most agreement with its ensemble members, period.

[JoMo]

i read some of these AFD's and they say the euro has been wavering around...really? it wavered on the 0Z but came back on the 12Z to what it has been consistent with since last sunday i believe or am i wrong on this? ...i think the other models have wavered around but the ukie.

In my mind, A major change from one run to the next that results in the low moving hundreds of miles and having a much different solution is wavering more than a model that has been consistently showing something but moving the track a small amount each run.

[royalflush06]

i read some of these AFD's and they say the euro has been wavering around...really? it wavered on the 0Z but came back on the 12Z to what it has been consistent with since last sunday i believe or am i wrong on this? ...i think the other models have wavered around but the ukie.

Your right except for last nights run it has been for the last couple days the northern outlier with only small variations

[A-L-E-K]

In my mind, A major change from one run to the next that results in the low moving hundreds of miles and having a much different solution is wavering more than a model that has been consistently showing something but moving the track a small amount each run.

I can see it both ways, i guess that's what ensembles are for at this range.

[cyclone77]

...I like a track between the euro and gfs right now but everything could change once it comes onshore and gets fully sampled on friday.

Yeah that's definitely the way to go from a forecasting standpoint.

The best part about this storm is even though a given area may miss the heavy snow swath, they would still have a chance to at least pick up some nice consolation snows.

[SEMIweather]

For my hometown (Lake Orion, MI) I'm just saying depending on the model it's anything from the storm missing south (GFS) to a chance of rain mixing in (Euro). I'm not really willing to call it one way or the other attm. Lots of uncertainty and an awesome storm to follow since I don't have to be worried about getting anything either way in Norman.

[JoMo]

For my hometown (Lake Orion, MI) I'm just saying depending on the model it's anything from the storm missing south (GFS) to a chance of rain mixing in (Euro). Awesome storm to follow since I don't have to be worried about getting anything either way in Norman.

You won't have to worry about that a lot this year

[ArmyGreens]

The hype machine is already going. The phone load today was a noticeable increase from yesterday, with folks wanting to know how much, when and where.

And we still have to get through the first clipper.

And this is the part of your job I do not envy!