Dec 11-13 MW/Lakes/OV Snow Event? Part II

[hoosierwx]

it's an accuwx default preference. Until proven otherwise, every winterstorm is an i-95 event.

That's what I thought. More hits that way.

[dilly84]

That's what I thought. More hits that way.

If you watch the vids at accuwx, theyre actually saying it will be mostly a rain event for the i-95 cities.

[royalflush06]

it's an accuwx default preference. Until proven otherwise, every winterstorm is an i-95 event.

Hello All I have moved to this forum after 2 years at accufavor I95 I was warned for saying that the DTX AFD gave no real forecast for the weekend storm and that it favored the euro and the lack of info was pathetic. I was told calling the nws pathetic was a personal attack. LOL LOL LOL Oh and I should have used a nicer word than pathetic. Good to see a few from accu here. I am getting more nervous about this weekends storm seems like the phasing must be perfect for these to really bomb out. To much has to come together.

[prinsburg_wx]

Henry Margusity musta wrote the AFD for MPX

DEBATE BETWEEN EUROPEAN AND GFS40 WAS SETTLED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH

12Z RUN...AS BOTH INDICATED PASSAGE OF PARENT CYCLONE OVER MISSOURI

BY SAT 12Z. HOWEVER...CURRENT EUROPEAN NOW BACK TO ORIGINAL THINKING

FOR PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF BRINGING CENTER OF STORM OVER EASTERN IOWA

AT THIS JUNCTURE. DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO WOULD INVOLVE EITHER A

FEW INCHES OF SNOW...VS NEAR 10. GFS40 MODEL OF CHOICE AGAIN...DUE ITS

CONSISTENCY AND HAND IN HAND AGREEMENT WITH DGEX. USED 290K ISENTROPIC

SFC TO PEG TIMING AND PARTIALLY ACCOUNT FOR SNOW AMOUNTS. ALTHOUGH

SUBSTANTIAL FORCING IN PLAY AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK DIVERGENCE INDICATED

FOR ALL OF SATURDAY PER 250MB LEVEL. BEST DENDRITIC GROWTH NUMBERS

WILL OCCUR OVER IOWA AND FAR NORTHERN MN. WITH THAT SAID...BEST POPS

AND SNOW AMOUNTS FOR OUR REGION NEAR IOWA BORDER. COULD BE AN EASY 3 TO

4 INCHES EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL...WITH ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES AS YOU

HEAD NORTH TO A GRANITE FALLS...TO LAKEVILLE TO BLOOMER LINE. TEMPERATURES

ALOFT INDICATE THIS EVENT WILL LACK ANY FREEZING PRECIP COMPONENT.

[BowMeHunter]

Hello All I have moved to this forum after 2 years at accufavor I95 I was warned for saying that the DTX AFD gave no real forecast for the weekend storm and that it favored the euro and the lack of info was pathetic. I was told calling the nws pathetic was a personal attack. LOL LOL LOL Oh and I should have used a nicer word than pathetic. Good to see a few from accu here. I am getting more nervous about this weekends storm seems like the phasing must be perfect for these to really bomb out. To much has to come together.

Your stay will be short here i imagine if you bring that attitude to this board.. welcome though!

[Stebo]

Hello All I have moved to this forum after 2 years at accufavor I95 I was warned for saying that the DTX AFD gave no real forecast for the weekend storm and that it favored the euro and the lack of info was pathetic. I was told calling the nws pathetic was a personal attack. LOL LOL LOL Oh and I should have used a nicer word than pathetic. Good to see a few from accu here. I am getting more nervous about this weekends storm seems like the phasing must be perfect for these to really bomb out. To much has to come together.

I'm sure that your attitude there if continued here will allow to see the door very quickly.

[Thundersnow12]

LOT

THE QUESTION ON

THE MINDS OF EVERYONE IS WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN WITH THE WEATHER

MAKER THAT IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE AREA? UNFORTUNATELY THE

ANSWER IS STILL SHROUDED WITH A LOT OF QUESTIONS. TO BEGIN...THE

SYSTEM THAT WILL EVENTUALLY SPAWN THIS STORM IS STILL IN A DATA

VOIDED REGION ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS...WHERE DATA SAMPLING

IS NOT AS ROBUST AS IT WILL BE IN A FEW MODEL CYCLES ONCE IT COMES

ASHORE. GENERAL FORECAST IS STILL A MEDIAN BLEND BETWEEN THE EC AND

GFS...THOUGH THEY ARE SOMEWHAT SPLIT WITH THEIR TRACKS. THE

GENERALLY CONSISTENT ECMWF HAS BEEN BOUNCING NORTH AND SOUTH THE

LAST FEW RUNS...WITH THE LATEST 12Z RUN TAKING A CLOSED LOW

ACROSS THE 'SWEET SPOT'...BUT THIS IS IN STARK CONTRAST TO WHAT

THE GFS...UKMET AND GEM ARE DETAILING. A VERY STRONG AND HIGH

LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH STRONG RIDGING EAST ACROSS

GREENLAND AND OUT WEST ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN...KEEPING DEEP

TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND EASTERN COAST OF THE US.

THE QUESTION IS HOW WILL THE ENERGY COMING OUT OF MONTANA AND

ACROSS THE PLAINS TRANSITION. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS ARE STILL

INCONSISTENT...AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...WITH THE ECMWF FLOPPING

NORTH AND SOUTH...AND WITH THE GFS WEAKENING AND SPEEDING UP. WILL

ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AT THIS POINT AND NOT GO WITH ANY

VALUES...AS THE DIFFERENCE IN LOCATION OF THE SURFACE AND MID

LEVEL LOW CAN MAKE FOR A CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCE IN THE FORECAST.

WHAT CAN BE SAID IS THAT WE ARE EXPECTING THE SYSTEM TO CROSS OVER

THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY.

[royalflush06]

I'm sure that your attitude there if continued here will allow to see the door very quickly.

Im not sure what attitude your talking about IM here to talk about the weather and they dtx gave a terrible write up and I have the right to comment on it. You do not have to be rude.

[Stebo]

Im not sure what attitude your talking about IM here to talk about the weather and they dtx gave a terrible write up and I have the right to comment on it. You do not have to be rude.

You called a NWS office pathetic, that is something not many Mets would be pleased to see. Sure you can disagree with an office's AFD but you might want to think about a better way of conveying that point than calling them pathetic.

[B-Rent]

<br />LOT<br />

THE QUESTION ON THE MINDS OF EVERYONE IS WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN WITH THE WEATHER MAKER THAT IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE AREA? UNFORTUNATELY THE ANSWER IS STILL SHROUDED WITH A LOT OF QUESTIONS. TO BEGIN...THE SYSTEM THAT WILL EVENTUALLY SPAWN THIS STORM IS STILL IN A DATA VOIDED REGION ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS...WHERE DATA SAMPLING IS NOT AS ROBUST AS IT WILL BE IN A FEW MODEL CYCLES ONCE IT COMES ASHORE.

I'm going to design an automated buoy weather ballon launching system.

What run should this storm be sampled on? 24 or 36 hours from now?

Sent from my Droid using Tapatalk

[ArmyGreens]

What is the AFD out of Detroit? For some reason my frackin computer won't let me see the page!!!

[buckeye]

sum up today's modelling

[OceanStWx]

Im not sure what attitude your talking about IM here to talk about the weather and they dtx gave a terrible write up and I have the right to comment on it. You do not have to be rude.

Was this the afternoon package? Because that AFD sounds pretty reasonably non-committal about which track they prefer due to model divergence, though they are introducing higher PoPs in case the Euro does catch lightning in a bottle.

[Stebo]

What is the AFD out of Detroit? For some reason my frackin computer won't let me see the page!!!

.LONG TERM...

DECEMBER HAS STARTED OUT COLD...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH

OF THE FIRST 8 DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO NORMAL FOR

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...ONLY TO GIVE WAY TO THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FAIL TO

REACH 20 DEGREES.

A PLETHORA OF INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE LARGE UPPER

LEVEL CIRCULATION OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN CANADA/GULF OF ALASKA.

MEANWHILE...THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE FORECAST WILL BE THE POLAR VORTEX

DROPPING SOUTH...AND ASSOCIATED SOUTHWEST EXTENSION/TROUGH DROPPING

SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. ITS EXTENDED REACH AND MAGNITUDE WILL

ULTIMATE DECIDE THE FATE OF THE WEEKEND STORM...AS SIGNIFICANT

WAVE/PV EJECTS FROM THE RESERVOIR POOL OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND

DESCENDS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. A FACTOR IN THIS

SCENARIO LOOKS TO BE THE UPPER WAVE CARVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN

CONUS TODAY...WHICH IS REALLY SUPPRESSING DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE

WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THUS THE WAVE COMING OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL HAVE

TO DIG PRETTY FAR SOUTH TO HELP ACCELERATE THE MOISTURE RETURN FROM

THE GULF. THE PROBLEM IS THE SYSTEM MAY DIVE TOO FAR SOUTH AND BEGIN

TO CLOSE OFF...SEE NAMB (PARALLEL)...AND THUS REMAIN SEPARATE FROM

THE NORTHERN STREAM...JUST TRACKING EAST IN UNISON BEFORE EVENTUALLY

PHASING ALONG THE EAST COAST.

BEFORE WE GET TO THE WEEKEND...WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE LIGHT

SNOWFALL THURSDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS SHOWS SURFACE LOW TRACKING INTO

ONTARIO WITH MOISTURE PLUME/850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS FALLING

APART AS IT TRAVERSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...AS SECONDARY

SURGE COMES THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. PW VALUES ARE NOW

PROGGED TO NOT EVEN REACH HALF AN INCH.

NONE-THE-LESS...STILL HAVE ABOUT 3 G/KG OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AT 850

MB WITH DECENT SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT...AND THINKING WE

ARE IN STORE FOR A 1 TO 2 INCH CWA WIDE SNOWFALL...TIMING GENERALLY

IN 6-12Z TIME FRAME. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE

DURING FRIDAY AS MID LEVELS QUICKLY DRY OUT...BUT DEPTH OF THE LOW

LEVEL MOISTURE IS QUESTIONABLE...WITH NEAR SURFACE DRY LAYER

PROBABLY SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THINGS DRY.

WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING INTO ONTARIO...THEIR WILL BE NO LOW LEVEL

COLD PUSH OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...AND WE SHOULD IN FACT

EXPERIENCE MODEST WARM ADVECTION...WHICH IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO PUSH

TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH

MULTIPLE FACTORS FOR THE WEEKEND...MENTIONED ABOVE...12Z MODEL

GUIDANCE REMAINS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGENT...SEE 12Z

UKMET/GFS/EUROPEAN/CANADIAN. STILL NOT READY TO COMMIT FULLY ONE WAY

OR THE OTHER (GLANCING BLOW VS BRUNT OF THE STORM)...BUT WITH THE

12Z EUROPEAN BEING A PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION...PREFER TO MENTION A CHANCE

OF RAIN FOR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS BASED ON MID 30 SURFACE TEMPS AND 925

MB TEMPS PROGGED TO RISE ABOVE 0 C.

NO PROBLEMS WITH MODEL CONSENSUS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...ITS GOING TO

BE VERY COLD...AS ARCTIC AIR SILLS SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT

LAKES WITH THE FULL LATITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE

MISSISSIPPI. WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP TO -20 C...TEENS FOR

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY DO IT...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET

A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE. WITH STRONG WINDS OF AT LEAST 20 TO 30

MPH...WIND CHILLS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 BELOW...WITH THE POTENTIAL

TO BE A BIT COLDER.

[Stebo]

Was this the afternoon package? Because that AFD sounds pretty reasonably non-committal about which track they prefer due to model divergence, though they are introducing higher PoPs in case the Euro does catch lightning in a bottle.

Yeah I think its in reference to that, and personally being from the Detroit area, I would agree with what they had stated, with respect to the Euro. They are just covering all bases just in case Euro ends up being correct.

[Thundersnow12]

H5 maps for the 18z NAM and 12z GFS for the same timeframe.

[OceanStWx]

I think most WFOs are stuck in the non-committal territory right now. Sure there are preferred models and scenarios, but to create a forecast based solely off one model or the other right now would be irresponsible at this point.

[OceanStWx]

Yeah I think its in reference to that, and personally being from the Detroit area, I would agree with what they had stated, with respect to the Euro. They are just covering all bases just in case Euro ends up being correct.

Likewise, if the Euro pans out I'll be looking at a lot more than a winter weather advisory for 2-3" of blowing snow and dangerously cold wind chills.

[JayPSU]

I did not call them pathetic please ask me before you assume something I said. The afd was disorganized lacking any real direction and had almost no opinion on which way they were even leaning it was not the regular guy This could be a very strong storm and they are responsible to do there best to properly warn the public he did not do that period

You said the lack of info they provided was pathetic, which infers they were pathetic with their afd.

As for their "responsibility," they indicated the potential for a strong storm. Responsibility fulfilled. Care to bash anymore professionals?

[Stebo]

Likewise, if the Euro pans out I'll be looking at a lot more than a winter weather advisory for 2-3" of blowing snow and dangerously cold wind chills.

Yeah the model variance is so high right now its astounding.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

The 18z GFS is just awful. Would be a bust for my area and an even bigger bust for Toronto

[Stebo]

You said the lack of info they provided was pathetic, which infers they were pathetic with their afd.

As for their "responsibility," they indicated the potential for a strong storm. Responsibility fulfilled. Care to bash anymore professionals?

Thank you, I was trying to find a way to double quote the post to show this, but you conveyed this point nicely.

[Justin]

You gotta almost go with a CYA type of discussion at this point to avoid getting burned. There are to many options that can happen and with no solid data on the system anything is possible. One model is a Northern outlier and most other models are clustered (albeit) not real close further to the South. The real track will likely be a comparison obviously somewhere in between. I don't see heavy snow occurring up in my parts, though ratios will likely be high so 0.25 to 0.40 or so of QPF will produce a solid advisory type snow. Best bet is still somewhere from MO up thru Michigan/Ohio for warning criteria snows... and how much is still a big question. I still think if this thing does by chance phase early enough it will bomb out and turn left of what any guidance spits out which is why I can't really toss the further North solutions but don't really buy them at this point. Trends are still important until we get sampling. I don't look for anything solid until perhaps early Friday and most certainly by Friday evening and even then it may end up being nowcasting on the track because the models won't handle this thing well at all even while its ongoing.

[Jim Martin]

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --MOST MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO A TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO FOR THE LOW

THAT WILL PRODUCE WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF CAME IN WITH A TRACK THAT BRINGS THE LOW

OVER LAKE ERIE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL STAY WITH THE GENERAL

CONSENSUS FOR A COLDER AND MORE SNOWY SCENARIO FOR SUN. MAY STILL

SEE SOME RA/FZRA/PL MIX IN FOR THE SE FOR A WHILE ON SUNDAY.

TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SHSN EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE SUN NIGHT INTO

MON WITH ARCTIC AIR SPREADING OVER THE AREA WITH WINDY CONDITIONS

ALSO CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. GOOD LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS

LOOK TO PREVAIL INTO TUE THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE TO

THE WEST FINALLY STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR WED ALONG WITH

VERY DRY AIR. COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON WITH THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK

AS HIGHS LIKELY TO NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS MON THROUGH WED.-- End Changed Discussion --

This is the afternoon AFD from NWS Cleveland.

[weatherbo]

I did not call them pathetic please ask me before you assume something I said. The afd was disorganized lacking any real direction and had almost no opinion on which way they were even leaning it was not the regular guy This could be a very strong storm and they are responsible to do there best to properly warn the public he did not do that period

Three posts and you're starting trouble. Don't need that on this board.

[Stebo]

You gotta almost go with a CYA type of discussion at this point to avoid getting burned. There are to many options that can happen and with no solid data on the system anything is possible. One model is a Northern outlier and most other models are clustered (albeit) not real close further to the South. The real track will likely be a comparison obviously somewhere in between. I don't see heavy snow occurring up in my parts, though ratios will likely be high so 0.25 to 0.40 or so of QPF will produce a solid advisory type snow. Best bet is still somewhere from MO up thru Michigan/Ohio for warning criteria snows... and how much is still a big question. I still think if this thing does by chance phase early enough it will bomb out and turn left of what any guidance spits out which is why I can't really toss the further North solutions but don't really buy them at this point. Trends are still important until we get sampling. I don't look for anything solid until perhaps early Friday and most certainly by Friday evening and even then it may end up being nowcasting on the track because the models won't handle this thing well at all even while its ongoing.

I agree a lot Justin, to throw out or bite hard on any guidance right now would be very difficult.

[royalflush06]

Likewise, if the Euro pans out I'll be looking at a lot more than a winter weather advisory for 2-3" of blowing snow and dangerously cold wind chills.

We are 3 days out with still a rather large track difference with regards to who gets what I would guess this will have a few surprises and busts I remember last winter a couple of storms jogged northwest once fully sampled. Does anyone know if they track the overall performance of the models to see which ones may do better with different types of weather and or seasons

[BowMeHunter]

Hello All I have moved to this forum after 2 years at accufavor I95 I was warned for saying that the DTX AFD gave no real forecast for the weekend storm and that it favored the euro and the lack of info was pathetic. I was told calling the nws pathetic was a personal attack. LOL LOL LOL Oh and I should have used a nicer word than pathetic. Good to see a few from accu here. I am getting more nervous about this weekends storm seems like the phasing must be perfect for these to really bomb out. To much has to come together.

I did not call them pathetic please ask me before you assume something I said. The afd was disorganized lacking any real direction and had almost no opinion on which way they were even leaning it was not the regular guy This could be a very strong storm and they are responsible to do there best to properly warn the public he did not do that period

Detroit is one of the best offices in the MW... They said they could take the brunt or a glancing blow.. what more can they say at this point.. They're not here to blow sweet nothings in weenies ears with a storm 3-4 days out. I'm sure tomorrow they will have a better grasp on things and will be back to a very detailed, AFD.

[Hoosier]

I think most WFOs are stuck in the non-committal territory right now. Sure there are preferred models and scenarios, but to create a forecast based solely off one model or the other right now would be irresponsible at this point.

Agreed, there's no reason to explicitly call for anything at this point. Certainly could be a major winter storm and it makes sense to highlight the potential, but to go beyond that can get one in trouble.

[OceanStWx]

Agreed, there's no reason to explicitly call for anything at this point. Certainly could be a major winter storm and it makes sense to highlight the potential, but to go beyond that can get one in trouble.

The hype machine is already going. The phone load today was a noticeable increase from yesterday, with folks wanting to know how much, when and where.

And we still have to get through the first clipper.